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基于两种潜在蒸散发算法的SPEI对中国干湿变化的分析

刘珂 姜大膀

刘珂, 姜大膀. 基于两种潜在蒸散发算法的SPEI对中国干湿变化的分析[J]. 大气科学, 2015, 39(1): 23-36. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1402.13265
引用本文: 刘珂, 姜大膀. 基于两种潜在蒸散发算法的SPEI对中国干湿变化的分析[J]. 大气科学, 2015, 39(1): 23-36. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1402.13265
LIU Ke, JIANG Dabang. Analysis of Dryness/Wetness over China Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index Based on Two Evapotranspiration Algorithms[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 39(1): 23-36. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1402.13265
Citation: LIU Ke, JIANG Dabang. Analysis of Dryness/Wetness over China Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index Based on Two Evapotranspiration Algorithms[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 39(1): 23-36. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1402.13265

基于两种潜在蒸散发算法的SPEI对中国干湿变化的分析

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1402.13265
基金项目: 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目2012CB955401,公益性行业(气象)科研专项GYHY201006022,国家自然科学基金项目41175072

Analysis of Dryness/Wetness over China Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index Based on Two Evapotranspiration Algorithms

  • 摘要: 利用美国普林斯顿大学高分辨率的全球陆面同化数据集和美国国家环境预测中心的辐射再分析数据,根据Thornthwaite和Penman-Monteith公式分别计算了1948~2008年中国区域潜在蒸散发量;而后,使用降水和两套潜在蒸散发数据分别计算得到标准化降水蒸散发指数SPEI(Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index),并以此研究了1949~2008年中国区域干湿变化时空特征以及两种SPEI结果之间的差异;最后,给出了两种SPEI在中国的适用区域。结果表明:两种SPEI均显示中国地区整体上存在变干趋势,季节上以春季的变干趋势最为显著;空间上表现为以长江为界的南涝北旱,显著变干的区域有内蒙古中部、华北、东北以及四川东部地区,显著变湿的地区主要位于新疆北部和西部。同时,各种不同等级干旱也呈增加趋势,其中以中等干旱增加最为显著。1990年代中后期以来是中等和极端干旱发生最多的时期,空间上与SPEI显著减小的区域相对应。两种SPEI在 冬、春季差异最大,这主要是由于期间两种潜在蒸散发的计算结果之间存在很大差异。在Penman-Monteith公式中,由于空气动力项对冬、春季北方潜在蒸散发的贡献显著增加,基于该公式的SPEI相对而言能更合理地描述干湿变化特征。
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2013-09-16
  • 修回日期:  2014-05-07

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