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中国大范围持续性极端低温事件的一类平流层前兆信号

施宁 布和朝鲁

施宁, 布和朝鲁. 中国大范围持续性极端低温事件的一类平流层前兆信号[J]. 大气科学, 2015, 39(1): 210-220. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1403.13309
引用本文: 施宁, 布和朝鲁. 中国大范围持续性极端低温事件的一类平流层前兆信号[J]. 大气科学, 2015, 39(1): 210-220. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1403.13309
SHI Ning, BUEH Cholaw. A Specific Stratospheric Precursory Signal for the Extensive and Persistent Extreme Cold Events in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 39(1): 210-220. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1403.13309
Citation: SHI Ning, BUEH Cholaw. A Specific Stratospheric Precursory Signal for the Extensive and Persistent Extreme Cold Events in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 39(1): 210-220. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1403.13309

中国大范围持续性极端低温事件的一类平流层前兆信号

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1403.13309
基金项目: 国家科技支撑计划项目2009BAC51B02,国家自然科学基金项目41375064、41105042,公益性行业科研专项GYHY201406022,江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD),江苏省“青蓝工程”创新团队项目

A Specific Stratospheric Precursory Signal for the Extensive and Persistent Extreme Cold Events in China

  • 摘要: 本文利用NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料,研究了中国大范围持续性极端低温事件(EPECE)的平流层前兆信号及其对对流层环流异常的影响。结果表明,在52个EPECE中,有17个EPECE具有一类共同的平流层前兆信号:(1)在EPECE发生前10天左右,在巴伦支海一带的100 hPa位势高度场呈现较强的正距平特征;(2)随后,该正异常环流逐渐向东移动,并在EPECE发生的前5天左右,使贝加尔湖西北侧200 hPa纬向风显著减弱。本文据此提出了关于EPECE平流层前兆信号的两个判别条件,并以这两个判别条件对1949~2009年冬季(11月至次年3月)所有逐日低频场进行了后查和检验。结果表明,上述两个判别条件对EPECE的发生日期具有一定的预测能力。本文进一步通过位涡(PV)反演探讨了平流层前期异常环流如何影响EPECE发生的物理机制。分析表明,巴伦支海附近的平流层中低层PV异常有利于该地区对流层中上层正高度异常的维持,后者强度的25%来源于前者的作用。
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2013-11-12
  • 修回日期:  2014-05-23

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