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东亚夏季风异常活动的多模态特征:不同再分析资料的比较分析

黄燕玲 陈海山 蒋薇 许蓓 李忠贤

黄燕玲, 陈海山, 蒋薇, 许蓓, 李忠贤. 东亚夏季风异常活动的多模态特征:不同再分析资料的比较分析[J]. 大气科学, 2015, 39(1): 145-160. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1404.13326
引用本文: 黄燕玲, 陈海山, 蒋薇, 许蓓, 李忠贤. 东亚夏季风异常活动的多模态特征:不同再分析资料的比较分析[J]. 大气科学, 2015, 39(1): 145-160. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1404.13326
HUANG Yanling, CHEN Haishan, JIANG Wei, XU Bei, LI Zhongxian. Multi-spatial Modes of East Asian Summer Monsoon Activity: Comparative Analysis of Various Reanalysis Data[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 39(1): 145-160. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1404.13326
Citation: HUANG Yanling, CHEN Haishan, JIANG Wei, XU Bei, LI Zhongxian. Multi-spatial Modes of East Asian Summer Monsoon Activity: Comparative Analysis of Various Reanalysis Data[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 39(1): 145-160. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1404.13326

东亚夏季风异常活动的多模态特征:不同再分析资料的比较分析

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1404.13326
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目41230422,科技部公益性行业(气象)科研专项GYHY201206017,江苏省自然科学基金——杰出青年基金项目BK20130047,新世纪优秀人才支持计划

Multi-spatial Modes of East Asian Summer Monsoon Activity: Comparative Analysis of Various Reanalysis Data

  • 摘要: 利用1979~2002年ERA-40、ERA interim、JRA-25和NCEP-DOE AMIP-Ⅱ(简称为NCEP-2)再分析资料,采用扩展经验正交分解(EEOF)、相关分析等方法,对比分析了不同资料所揭示的东亚夏季风异常活动的多模态特征,在此基础上探讨了东亚夏季风异常活动各模态对应的大气环流异常分布型及其与中国夏季降水的可能联系。结果表明:(1)四套再分析资料所揭示的东亚夏季风异常活动均存在三种差异显著的空间模态,且各套资料对东亚夏季风异常活动空间多模态特征具有很好的一致性,仅NCEP-2的结果与其他资料略有差异。(2)第一模态体现了夏季风年际异常在中国南方和北方的反相变化,并具有显著的3~6年和准8年周期;与正(负)时间系数相对应,850 hPa风场、500 hPa高度场、SLP均显示东亚沿岸存在从西北太平洋经过日本以南到达鄂霍次克海的“-+-”(“+-+”)经向三极型结构;相应的降水变化在长江中下游为显著的负(正)异常,而在我国东北东部、东南沿海及云南西部则为正(负)异常。(3)第二模态反映了夏季风活动主导模态的一致性变化且在1993年左右发生年代际转折,并呈现准12年周期的强弱交替分布。当对应的时间系数为正(负)时,850 hPa风场在环贝加尔湖地区受强大的异常反气旋(气旋)控制;500 hPa高度场上,中高纬地区表现为异常的纬向波列结构,具体表现为起源于欧洲大陆西部经西西伯利亚平原向东南方向延伸至东北亚地区的“+-+”(“-+-”)的波列;SLP在我国大陆主要为正(负)异常,东亚夏季风整体减弱(加强);对应的夏季降水异常场呈现“南涝北旱”(“南旱北涝”)的分布形势。(4)第三模态表明了夏季风异常活动的东西反相变化,且有12~16年的准周期变化。对应正(负)的时间系数,115°E 以东地区盛行异常偏南(北)风,而115°E 以西地区主要盛行异常偏北(南)风;500 hPa高度场、SLP均显示出东亚沿岸地区、鄂霍次克海至日本以南洋面的“-+”(“+-”)波列以及欧亚大陆北部的准纬向遥相关波列;夏季降水在我国大部分地区偏多(偏少),显著变化主要位于黄淮及附近地区。
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  • 收稿日期:  2013-12-08
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