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青藏高原未来气候变化预估:CMIP5模式结果

胡芩 姜大膀 范广洲

胡芩, 姜大膀, 范广洲. 青藏高原未来气候变化预估:CMIP5模式结果[J]. 大气科学, 2015, 39(2): 260-270. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1406.13325
引用本文: 胡芩, 姜大膀, 范广洲. 青藏高原未来气候变化预估:CMIP5模式结果[J]. 大气科学, 2015, 39(2): 260-270. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1406.13325
HU Qin, JIANG Dabang, FAN Guangzhou. Climate Change Projection on the Tibetan Plateau:Results of CMIP5 Models[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 39(2): 260-270. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1406.13325
Citation: HU Qin, JIANG Dabang, FAN Guangzhou. Climate Change Projection on the Tibetan Plateau:Results of CMIP5 Models[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 39(2): 260-270. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1406.13325

青藏高原未来气候变化预估:CMIP5模式结果

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1406.13325
基金项目: 中国科学院战略性先导科技专项——青藏高原圈层相互作用及其资源环境效应项目XDB03020602, 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目2012CB955401, 国家自然科学基金项目41375084、41175072

Climate Change Projection on the Tibetan Plateau:Results of CMIP5 Models

  • 摘要: 本文使用国际耦合模式比较计划第5阶段(CMIP5)中对青藏高原气候模拟较优的气候模式, 在RCP4.5中等偏低辐射强迫情景下对青藏高原未来气候变化进行了预估研究。结果表明, 青藏高原年均地表气温在2006~2100年的线性趋势平均为0.26℃/10a, 增暖幅度与海拔高度大体成正比;相比于1986~2005年参考时段, 2090年代平均升温2.7℃, 21世纪末期增温幅度明显高于早期和中期;在早、中和末期, 年均增温分别为0.8~1.3℃、1.6~2.5℃和2.1~3.1℃;各季节也均为变暖趋势, 其中冬季增温最大。对于年均降水来说, 未来百年将小幅增加, 集合平均趋势为1.15%/10a, 2090年代较参考时段增加10.4%;在早、中和末期的变化范围分别为-1.8%至15.2%、-0.9%至17.8%和1.4%至21.3%;季节降水也呈增加趋势, 夏季增幅明显高于其余三个季节且在21世纪末期较大, 青藏高原未来年均降水增加主要来自于夏季。需要指出的是, 上述预估结果在气候模式间存在着一定的差异, 未来气候变化的不确定性范围较大, 地表气温的可信度相对较高, 而降水的则偏低。
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