高级检索

留言板

尊敬的读者、作者、审稿人, 关于本刊的投稿、审稿、编辑和出版的任何问题, 您可以本页添加留言。我们将尽快给您答复。谢谢您的支持!

姓名
邮箱
手机号码
标题
留言内容
验证码

RCP4.5情景下中国未来干湿变化预估

刘珂 姜大膀

刘珂, 姜大膀. RCP4.5情景下中国未来干湿变化预估[J]. 大气科学, 2015, 39(3): 489-502. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1406.14119
引用本文: 刘珂, 姜大膀. RCP4.5情景下中国未来干湿变化预估[J]. 大气科学, 2015, 39(3): 489-502. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1406.14119
LIU Ke, JIANG Dabang. Projected Changes in the Dry/Wet Climate of Chinaunder the RCP4.5 Scenario[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 39(3): 489-502. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1406.14119
Citation: LIU Ke, JIANG Dabang. Projected Changes in the Dry/Wet Climate of Chinaunder the RCP4.5 Scenario[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 39(3): 489-502. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1406.14119

RCP4.5情景下中国未来干湿变化预估

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1406.14119
基金项目: 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目2012CB955401, 公益性行业(气象)科研专项GYHY201006022, 国家自然科学基金项目41375084

Projected Changes in the Dry/Wet Climate of Chinaunder the RCP4.5 Scenario

  • 摘要: 本文采用国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)中21个气候模式的试验数据, 利用土壤湿度以及由其他8个地表气象要素计算所得的干旱指数, 预估了RCP4.5(Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5)情景下21世纪中国干湿变化。结果表明:全球气候模式对1986~2005年中国现代干湿分布具备模拟能力, 尽管在西部地区模式与观测间存在一定的差异。在RCP4.5情景下, 21世纪中国区域平均的标准化降水蒸散发指数和土壤湿度均有减小趋势, 与之对应的是短期和长期干旱发生次数增加以及湿润区面积减小。从2016到2100年, 约1.5%~3.5%的陆地面积将从湿润区变成半干旱或半湿润区。空间分布上, 干旱化趋势明显的区域主要位于西北和东南地区, 同时短期和长期干旱发生次数在这两个地区的增加幅度也最大, 未来干旱化的发生时间也较其他地区要早;只在东北和西南地区未来或有变湿倾向, 但幅度较小。在季节尺度上, 北方地区变干主要发生在暖季, 南方则主要以冷季变干为主。造成中国干旱化的原因主要是由降水与蒸散发所表征的地表可用水量减少。
  • [1] Dai A G. 2012. Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models [J]. Nature Climate Change, 3 (1): 52-59.
    [2] 符淙斌, 安芷生, 郭维栋. 2005. 我国生存环境演变和北方干旱化趋势预测研究 (I): 主要研究成果 [J]. 地球科学进展, 20 (11): 1157-1167.
    [3] Fu Congbin, An Zhisheng, Guo Weidong. 2005. Evolution of life-supporting environment in our nation and the predictive study of aridification in northern China (I): Main scientific issues and achievements [J]. Advances in Earth Science (in Chinese), 20: 1157-1167.
    [4] Frich P, Alexander L V, Della-Marta P, et al. 2002. Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century [J]. Climate Research, 19: 193-212.
    [5] Gao X, Giorgi F. 2008. Increased aridity in the Mediterranean region under greenhouse gas forcing estimated from high resolution simulations with a regional climate model [J]. Global and Planetary Change, 62 (3-4): 195-209.
    [6] Gao X, Shi Y, Zhang D, et al. 2012. Uncertainties in monsoon precipitation projections over China: Results from two high resolution RCM simulations [J]. Climate Research, 52: 213-226.
    [7] IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis [M]. Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, et al., Eds. Cambridge, UK and New York, USA: Cambridge University Press, 996.
    [8] IPCC. 2013. Climate Change 2013: Summary for Policymakers [M]. Stocker T F, Qin D, Plattner G K, et al., Eds. Cambridge, UK and New York, USA: Cambridge University Press, 35.
    [9] Jensen M E, Burman R D, Allen R G. 1990. Evapotranspiration and RrrigationWater Requirements [M]. New York, NY: American Society of Civil Engineers, 360pp.
    [10] 姜大膀, 苏明峰, 魏荣庆, 等. 2009. 新疆气候的干湿变化及其趋势预估[J]. 大气科学, 33 (1): 90-98. Jiang Dabang, Su Mingfeng, Wei Rongqing, et al. 2009.Variation and projection of drought and wet conditions in Xinjiang [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 33 (1): 90-98.
    [11] Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, et al. 1996. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project [J]. Bull.Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77 (3): 437-471.
    [12] 李明星, 马柱国. 2012. 中国气候干湿变化及气候带边界演变:以集成土壤湿度为指标 [J]. 科学通报, 57 (28): 2740-2754. Li Mingxing, Ma Zhuguo. 2013. Soil moisture-based study of the variability of dry-wet climate andclimate zones in China [J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 58: 531-544.
    [13] 林而达, 许吟隆, 蒋金荷, 等. 2006. 气候变化国家评估报告 (II): 气候变化的影响与适应 [J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2 (2): 51-56. Lin Erda, Xu Yinlong, Jiang Jinhe, et al. 2006. National assessment report of climate change (II): Climate change impacts and adaption [J]. Advances in Climate Change Research (in Chinese), 2 (2): 51-56.
    [14] 马柱国, 符淙斌. 2005. 中国干旱和半干旱带的10年际演变特征 [J]. 地球物理学报, 48 (3): 519-525. Ma Zhuguo, Fu Congbin. 2005. Decadal variations of arid and semi-arid boundary in China [J]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics (in Chinese), 48 (3): 519-525.
    [15] Milly P C D, Wetherald R T, Dunne K A, et al. 2002. Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate [J]. Nature, 415 (6871): 514-517.
    [16] Monteith J L. 1965. Evaporation and environment [J].Symposium of the Society for Experimental Biology, 19: 205-234.
    [17] Palmer W C. 1965. Meteorological drought [C]. Research Paper 45, U.S. Department of Commerce, Weather Bureau, Washington D.C., 58pp.
    [18] Sheffield J, Goteti G, Wood E F. 2006. Development of a 50-year high-resolution global dataset of meteorological forcings for land surface modeling [J]. J. Climate, 19 (13): 3088-3111.
    [19] Sheffield J, Wood E F. 2008. Projected changes in drought occurrence under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario, IPCC AR4 simulations [J]. Climate Dyn., 31 (1): 79-105.
    [20] 申双和, 张方敏, 盛琼. 2009. 1975~2004年中国湿润指数时空变化特征[J]. 农业工程学报, 25 (1): 11-15. Shen Shuanghe, Zhang Fangmin, Sheng Qiong. 2009. Spatio-temporal changes of wetness index in China from 1975 to 2004 [J]. Transactions of the CASE (in Chinese), 25 (1): 11-15.
    [21] 石崇, 刘晓东. 2012. 1947~2006年东半球陆地干旱化特征——基于SPEI数据的分析 [J]. 中国沙漠, 32 (6): 1691-1701. Shi Chong, Liu Xiaodong. 2012. Continent drought characteristics over the Eastern Hemisphere from 1947 to 2006: Analyses based on the SPEI dataset [J] Journal of Desert Research (in Chinese), 32 (6): 1691-1701.
    [22] 施晓晖, 徐祥德. 2006. 中国大陆冬夏季气候型年代际转折的区域结构特征 [J]. 科学通报, 51 (17): 2075-2084. Shi Xiaohui, Xu Xiangde. 2006. Regional characteristics of the interdecadal turning of winter/ summer climate modes in Chinese mainland [J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 52 (1): 101-112.
    [23] Shi Y, Gao X, Wu J. 2012. Projected changes in Köppen climate types in the 21st century over China [J]. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 5 (6): 495-498.
    [24] 苏明峰, 王会军. 2006. 中国气候干湿变率与ENSO的关系及其稳定性[J]. 中国科学D辑: 地球科学, 36 (10): 951-958. Su Mingfeng, Wang Huijun. 2007. Relationship and its instability of ENSO-Chinese variations in droughts and wet spells [J]. Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences, 50 (1): 145-152.
    [25] Taylor K E. 2001. Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram [J]. J. Geophys. Res., 106 (D7): 7183-7192.
    [26] Thornthwaite C W. 1948. An approach toward a rational classification of climate [J]. Geographical Review, 38 (1): 55-94.
    [27] Vicente-Serrano S M, Beguería S, López-Moreno J I, et al. 2010a. A new global 0.5° gridded dataset (1901-2006) of a multiscalar drought index: Comparison with current drought index datasets based on the Palmer drought severity index [J]. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 11 (4): 1033-1043.
    [28] Vicente-Serrano S M, Beguería S, López-Moreno J I. 2010b. A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index [J]. J. Climate, 23 (7): 1696-1718.
    [29] Vicente-Serrano S M, López-Moreno J I, Lorenzo-Lacruz J, et al. 2011.The NAO impact on droughts in the Mediterranean region [J]. Advances in Global Change Research, 46: 23-40.
    [30] Wang G L. 2005. Agricultural drought in a future climate: Results from 15 global climate models participating in the IPCC 4th assessment [J]. Climate Dyn., 25 (7-8): 739-753.
    [31] 卫捷, 陶诗言, 张庆云. 2003. Palmer干旱指数在华北干旱分析中的应用[J]. 地理学报, 58 (增刊): 91-99. Wei Jie, Tao Shiyan, Zhang Qingyun. 2003. Analysis of drought in northern China based on the Palmer severity drought index [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica (in Chinese), 58 (supplement): 91-99.
    [32] Wetherald R T, Manabe S. 1999. Detectability of summer dryness caused by greenhouse warming [J]. Climatic Change, 43 (3): 495-511.
    [33] Wetherald R T, Manabe S. 2002. Simulation of hydrologic changes associated with global warming [J]. J. Geophys. Res., 107 (D19): ACL7-1-ACL7-15.
    [34] Wilhite D A, Svoboda M D, Hayes M J. 2007. Understanding the complex impacts of drought: A key to enhancing drought mitigation and preparedness [J]. Water Resources Management, 21 (5): 763-774.
    [35] 许崇海, 罗勇, 徐影. 2010. IPCC AR4 多模式对中国地区干旱变化的模拟及预估 [J]. 冰川冻土, 32 (5): 867-874. Xu Chonghai, Luo Yong, Xu Ying. 2010. Simulation and prediction of the drought variation in China by multi-model ensemble [J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology (in Chinese), 32 (5): 867-874.
    [36] Yu E T, Wang H J, Sun J Q. 2010. A quick report on a dynamical downscaling simulation over China using the nested model [J]. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 3 (6): 325-329.
    [37] 翟建青, 曾小凡, 苏布达, 等. 2009. 基于ECHAM5模式预估2050年前中国旱涝格局趋势 [J]. 气候变化研究进展, 5 (4): 220-225. Zhai Jianqing, Zeng Xiaofan, Su Buda, et al. 2009. Pattern of dryness/wetness in China before 2050 projected by the ECHAM5 model [J]. Advance in Climate Change Research (in Chinese), 5 (4): 220-225.
    [38] 翟盘茂, 邹旭恺. 2005. 1951~2003年中国气温和降水变化及其对干旱的影响 [J]. 气候变化研究进展, 1 (1): 16-18. Zhai Panmao, Zou Xukai. 2005. Changes in temperature and precipitation and their impacts on drought in China during 1951-2003 [J]. Advances in Climate Change Research (in Chinese), 1 (1): 16-18.
    [39] 张晓影. 2009. 中国区域土壤湿度特征分析及评估 [D]. 中国地质大学硕士学位论文. Zhang Xiaoying. 2009. Analysis and assessment of soil moisture in China based on the situ observation data [D]. M. S. thesis (in Chinese), China University of Geosciences.
    [40] 周晓东, 朱启疆, 孙中平, 等. 2002. 中国荒漠化气候类型划分方法的初步探讨 [J]. 自然灾害学报, 11 (2): 125-131. Zhou Xiaodong, Zhu Qijiang, Sun Zhongping, et al. 2002. Preliminary study on regionalization desertification climate in China [J]. Journal of Natural Disasters (in Chinese), 11 (2): 125-131.
  • 加载中
计量
  • 文章访问数:  5219
  • HTML全文浏览量:  0
  • PDF下载量:  2355
  • 被引次数: 0
出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2014-02-21
  • 修回日期:  2014-06-24

目录

    /

    返回文章
    返回