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参加CMIP5计划的四个中国模式模拟的东亚地区降水结构特征及未来变化

林壬萍 周天军

林壬萍, 周天军. 参加CMIP5计划的四个中国模式模拟的东亚地区降水结构特征及未来变化[J]. 大气科学, 2015, 39(2): 338-356. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1407.14110
引用本文: 林壬萍, 周天军. 参加CMIP5计划的四个中国模式模拟的东亚地区降水结构特征及未来变化[J]. 大气科学, 2015, 39(2): 338-356. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1407.14110
LIN Renping, ZHOU Tianjun. Reproducibility and Future Projections of the Precipitation Structure in East Asia in Four Chinese GCMs That Participated in the CMIP5 Experiments[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 39(2): 338-356. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1407.14110
Citation: LIN Renping, ZHOU Tianjun. Reproducibility and Future Projections of the Precipitation Structure in East Asia in Four Chinese GCMs That Participated in the CMIP5 Experiments[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 39(2): 338-356. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1407.14110

参加CMIP5计划的四个中国模式模拟的东亚地区降水结构特征及未来变化

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1407.14110
基金项目: 中国科学院战略性先导科技专项XDA05110300, 全球变化国家重大科学研究计划“高分辨率气候系统模式的研制与评估”项目2010CB951904

Reproducibility and Future Projections of the Precipitation Structure in East Asia in Four Chinese GCMs That Participated in the CMIP5 Experiments

  • 摘要: 在全球变暖的背景下, 降水特征的改变体现为降水总量和降水结构的变化。由于缺乏较为长期、覆盖范围广的较高分辨率逐日降水资料, 过去对东亚降水的研究多关注其降水量的长期趋势和时空变率, 较少涉及降水结构的变化。本文利用当前最新且分辨率最高、覆盖范围最广的逐日亚洲陆地降水数据集(简称APHRODITE)以及四个中国参加第五次国际耦合模式比较计划(简称CMIP5)的模式(BCC-CSM1-1, BNU-ESM, FGOALS-g2和FGOALS-s2), 研究了东亚地区降水结构的观测特征及四个模式的模拟能力。基于此, 通过分析四个模式的未来预估试验, 探讨东亚地区降水结构在全球变暖背景下的变化。结果表明:整个东亚地区的累积降水量呈现出随着降水强度的增加先增加后减小的分布形态;降水频率则是随着强度的增加显著减小。小雨(中雨)呈现出南少北多(南多北少)的形态;强降水则较多分布在华南沿海以及日本南部地区。长期趋势上, 整个东亚地区大体上呈现小雨和30 mm/d以上的大雨增加, 而中等强度降水减少的变化趋势。四个模式对东亚降水结构的气候态模拟能力较好。BCC-CSM1-1和FGOALS-g2能够合理再现观测中各个强度降水的变化趋势, 而其他模式模拟不出中雨的减小趋势。四个模式的未来预估表明, 在全球变暖的背景下, 东亚地区30 mm/d以上的强降水会增加。且降水强度越大, 增加越明显。以30°N为界, 小雨(中雨)在变暖背景下呈现南部增加北部减少(南部减少北部增加)的变化趋势。
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