参加CMIP5计划的四个中国模式模拟的东亚地区降水结构特征及未来变化

林壬萍; 周天军

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1407.14110

参加CMIP5计划的四个中国模式模拟的东亚地区降水结构特征及未来变化

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1407.14110

林壬萍¹,
周天军^2,

1.
中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室, 北京100029;中国科学院大学, 北京100049
2.
中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室, 北京100029;中国科学院气候变化研究中心, 北京100029

基金项目: 中国科学院战略性先导科技专项XDA05110300, 全球变化国家重大科学研究计划“高分辨率气候系统模式的研制与评估”项目2010CB951904

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2014-01-11
- 修回日期: 2014-07-08

Reproducibility and Future Projections of the Precipitation Structure in East Asia in Four Chinese GCMs That Participated in the CMIP5 Experiments

LIN Renping¹,
ZHOU Tianjun^2
,

1.
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049
2.
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;Climate Change Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029

摘要

摘要: 在全球变暖的背景下, 降水特征的改变体现为降水总量和降水结构的变化。由于缺乏较为长期、覆盖范围广的较高分辨率逐日降水资料, 过去对东亚降水的研究多关注其降水量的长期趋势和时空变率, 较少涉及降水结构的变化。本文利用当前最新且分辨率最高、覆盖范围最广的逐日亚洲陆地降水数据集(简称APHRODITE)以及四个中国参加第五次国际耦合模式比较计划(简称CMIP5)的模式(BCC-CSM1-1, BNU-ESM, FGOALS-g2和FGOALS-s2), 研究了东亚地区降水结构的观测特征及四个模式的模拟能力。基于此, 通过分析四个模式的未来预估试验, 探讨东亚地区降水结构在全球变暖背景下的变化。结果表明:整个东亚地区的累积降水量呈现出随着降水强度的增加先增加后减小的分布形态;降水频率则是随着强度的增加显著减小。小雨(中雨)呈现出南少北多(南多北少)的形态;强降水则较多分布在华南沿海以及日本南部地区。长期趋势上, 整个东亚地区大体上呈现小雨和30 mm/d以上的大雨增加, 而中等强度降水减少的变化趋势。四个模式对东亚降水结构的气候态模拟能力较好。BCC-CSM1-1和FGOALS-g2能够合理再现观测中各个强度降水的变化趋势, 而其他模式模拟不出中雨的减小趋势。四个模式的未来预估表明, 在全球变暖的背景下, 东亚地区30 mm/d以上的强降水会增加。且降水强度越大, 增加越明显。以30°N为界, 小雨(中雨)在变暖背景下呈现南部增加北部减少(南部减少北部增加)的变化趋势。
- 东亚降水 /
- 降水结构 /
- 降水量 /
- 降水频率 /
- CMIP5模式 /
- 历史气候模拟试验 /
- 未来预估试验
Abstract: Under the current global warming tendency, precipitation change is characterized by either a change in the amount of total rainfall or a shift in the precipitation structure.Due to lack of access to high-resolution data for the daily rainfall of the entire East Asian region, previous studies in East Asia mainly focused on spatial-temporal variations in precipitation amounts rather than its structure.Based on the latest daily precipitation APHRODITE (Asian Precipitation-Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation) data and the outputs of four Chinese CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models (BCC-CSM1-1, BNU-ESM, FGOALS-g2, and FGOALS-s2), the authors investigated the characteristics of precipitation structures in East Asia.The authors also examined future projections made by these models.The results indicate that the amount of climatological rainfall observed reaches a maximum at the intermediate range and tails off toward the high and low rain rates.With respect to frequency, a rate of 1 mm/d occurs far more frequently than any other rain rates.More (less) light (moderate) rain occurs in the north than in the south.Extreme heavy precipitation mainly occurs on the southeast coast of China and south of Japan.With respect to the long-term trend, light rain and heavy rain (>30 mm/d) increase while moderate rain decreases.The climatology of the precipitation structure in East Asia is adequately reproduced by all four models.BCC-CSM1-1 and FGOALS-g2 can reproduce the rainfall trends of all the rain rate types.FGOALS-s2 and BNU-ESM cannot reproduce the downward trend of moderate rain.Based on projections by the four models, heavy rain (>30 mm/d) will increase under global warming.The higher the extreme heavy rain, the more significant the increasing trend.Light (moderate) rain will increase (decrease) in the south and decrease (increase) in the north as global warming progresses.Further analysis indicates that the increase in extreme heavy rain is mainly due to rise in the global mean air temperature.
- East Asian precipitation /
- Precipitation structure /
- Rainfall amount /
- Precipitation frequency /
- CMIP5 models /
- Historical run /
- Projection of future climate

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