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BCC_CSM模式夏季关键区海温回报评估

汪栩加 郑志海 封国林 王阔 申茜

汪栩加, 郑志海, 封国林, 王阔, 申茜. BCC_CSM模式夏季关键区海温回报评估[J]. 大气科学, 2015, 39(2): 271-288. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1408.13329
引用本文: 汪栩加, 郑志海, 封国林, 王阔, 申茜. BCC_CSM模式夏季关键区海温回报评估[J]. 大气科学, 2015, 39(2): 271-288. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1408.13329
WANG Xujia, ZHENG Zhihai, FENG Guolin, WANG Kuo, SHEN Qian. Summer Prediction of Sea Surface Temperatures in Key Areas in BCC_CSM Model[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 39(2): 271-288. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1408.13329
Citation: WANG Xujia, ZHENG Zhihai, FENG Guolin, WANG Kuo, SHEN Qian. Summer Prediction of Sea Surface Temperatures in Key Areas in BCC_CSM Model[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 39(2): 271-288. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1408.13329

BCC_CSM模式夏季关键区海温回报评估

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1408.13329
基金项目: 国家重点基础研究发展计划项目2013CB430204, 公益性行业(气象)科研专项GYHY201306021, 国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目41105070、41005051

Summer Prediction of Sea Surface Temperatures in Key Areas in BCC_CSM Model

  • 摘要: 利用国家气候中心气候系统模式(Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model, BCC_CSM)的汛期回报试验数据集, 评估了夏季中低纬度海表面温度(Sea Surface Temperature, SST)的预测能力。结果表明:该模式对夏季中低纬海温具有一定的预测能力, 且在低纬地区的预测技巧尤为出色。对太平洋、热带印度洋和北大西洋这三个关键区进一步分析发现, 该模式对不同海区海温的预测能力有所不同。其中, 模式对夏季北太平洋海温及Niño 3.4指数表现出显著的预测技巧, 对热带印度洋、北大西洋海温及热带印度洋全区一致海温模态(Indian Ocean Basin-wide Warming, IOBW)也表现出一定的预测技巧, 而对北大西洋海温三极子模态(North Atlantic Tripole, NAT)的技巧相对较低。研究发现, 预测技巧与前冬的ENSO状态密切相关, 当前冬位于ENSO异常位相时, BCC_CSM模式对于三大海区夏季海温的预测技巧要高于前冬位于ENSO正常位相时, 且对NAT指数也具有更高的预测技巧。前冬ENSO所处的位相对于该模式对夏季Niño 3.4指数及IOBW指数的预测技巧影响不明显。此外, 该模式对夏季海温的预测技巧依赖于超前时间, 预测技巧在大部分情形下超前1个月的预测技巧相对更高。
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  • 收稿日期:  2013-12-11
  • 修回日期:  2014-09-10

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