全球变暖减缓期陆地地表气温变化特征和CMIP5多模式的未来情景预估

何金海; 詹丰兴; 祁莉; 王迪

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1409.14217

全球变暖减缓期陆地地表气温变化特征和CMIP5多模式的未来情景预估

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1409.14217

1.
南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害教育部重点实验室, 南京 210044
2.
南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害教育部重点实验室, 南京 210044;江西省气象局, 南昌 330046
3.
辽宁省气象服务中心, 沈阳 110001

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目41475086,国家自然科学基金重大研究计划项目91337216,长江学者和创新团队发展计划项目(PCSIRT),江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD),江苏省高校青蓝工程

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2014-06-30

Evolution of Surface Temperature during Global Warming Hiatus Based on Observations and CMIP5 Simulations

1.
Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044
2.
Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044;Jiangxi Meteorology Bureau, Nanchang 330046
3.
Liaoning Meteorological Service Centre, Shenyang 110001

摘要

摘要: 2000年后全球气温的增温率显著下降,全球进入变暖减缓期.本文基于CRU(Climatic Research Unit) 观测资料,分析讨论了2000年后全球及欧亚中高纬度地区全球变暖的减缓特征,评估了CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5)试验多模式对全球变暖减缓的模拟及未来气温变化预估.结果表明,2000年后全球陆地平均地面气温的增温率大幅下降至0.14℃ (10 a)^-1,仅为1976~1999年加速期增温率的一半.全球陆地13个区域中有9个地区的增温率小于2000年前,4个地区甚至出现了降温.其中以欧亚中高纬地区最为特殊.加速期(1976~1999年)增温率达到0.50℃ (10 a)^-1,为全球陆地最大,2000年后陡降至-0.17℃ (10 a)^-1,为全球最强降温区,为全球变暖的减缓贡献了49.13%.并且具有显著的季节依赖,减缓期冬季增温率下降了-2.68℃ (10 a)^-1,而秋季升高了0.86℃ (10 a)^-1,呈现反位相变化特征.CMIP5多模式计划中仅BCC-CSM1.1在RCP2.6情景下和MRI-ESM1模式在RCP8.5下的模拟较好地预估了全球及欧亚中高纬地区在2000年后增温率的下降以及欧亚中高纬秋、冬温度的反位相变化特征.BCC-CSM1.1在RCP2.6情景下预估欧亚中高纬地区2012年后温度距平保持在1.2℃左右,2020年后跃至2℃附近振荡.而MRI-ESM1在RCP8.5情景下预估的欧亚中高纬度温度在2030年前一直维持几乎为零的增温率,之后迅速升高.
- 全球变暖减缓 /
- 欧亚中高纬 /
- CMIP5(CoupledModelIntercomparisonProjectPhase5)
Abstract: The rise in global surface temperature has significantly declined after 2000. In this study, the evolution of the surface temperature of the global land-mean and Eurasia middle-high latitudes during the global warming hiatus was analyzed based on CRU observations. Simulations and projections were also evaluated using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). The results indicate that, in the global warming hiatus period, the trend of the global land-mean surface temperature is only 0.14℃ (10 a)^-1, which is half that during 1976-1999. The trend is less than that before 2000 in nine of the 13 global land regions, and four of them show a decreasing trend. The Eurasia middle-high latitude region is the most interesting among all the regions. For 1976-1999, the Eurasia middle-high latitude region shows the largest warming among all the land regions and reaches 0.50℃ (10 a)^-1. After 2000, the trend significantly declines to -0.17℃ (10 a)^-1, the greatest cooling trend over land, globally, contributing 49.13% of the remarkable change in global land surface temperatures before and after 2000. Furthermore, the surface temperature of the Eurasia middle-high latitude region shows an opposite change in autumn and winter after 2000; the temperature of the former rises by 0.86℃ (10 a)^-1, while the that of the latter decreases by 2.68℃ (10 a)^-1. In CMIP5, only the simulation and projects in BCC-CSM1.1 under the RCP2.6 scenario and MRI-ESM1 under the RCP8.5 scenario reproduce the evolution of the global land-mean and Eurasia middle-high latitude surface temperature, as well as the opposite change between autumn and winter of the Eurasia middle-high latitude region, during the global warming hiatus. The temperature projection of the BCC-CSM1.1 under the RCP2.6 scenario for the Eurasia middle-high latitude remains flat, near 1.2℃, after 2012, and jumps to 2℃ after 2020. The change in the MRI-ESM1's projected temperature under the RCP8.5 scenario is close to zero before 2030; the temperature then rises remarkably, to ℃ (10 a)^-1.
- Global warming hiatus /
- Eurasian middle-high latitudes /
- CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison ProjectPhase 5)

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