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冬季北大西洋风暴轴异常对我国寒潮活动的可能影响

周星妍 朱伟军 顾聪

周星妍, 朱伟军, 顾聪. 冬季北大西洋风暴轴异常对我国寒潮活动的可能影响[J]. 大气科学, 2015, 39(5): 978-990. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1501.14259
引用本文: 周星妍, 朱伟军, 顾聪. 冬季北大西洋风暴轴异常对我国寒潮活动的可能影响[J]. 大气科学, 2015, 39(5): 978-990. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1501.14259
ZHOU Xingyan, ZHU Weijun, GU Cong. Possible Influence of the Variation of the Northern Atlantic Storm Track on the Activity of Cold Waves in China during Winter[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 39(5): 978-990. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1501.14259
Citation: ZHOU Xingyan, ZHU Weijun, GU Cong. Possible Influence of the Variation of the Northern Atlantic Storm Track on the Activity of Cold Waves in China during Winter[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 39(5): 978-990. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1501.14259

冬季北大西洋风暴轴异常对我国寒潮活动的可能影响

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1501.14259
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目41575070、41075070,公益性行业(气象)科研专项GYHY201306028,江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目PAPD

Possible Influence of the Variation of the Northern Atlantic Storm Track on the Activity of Cold Waves in China during Winter

  • 摘要: 基于1961~2011年国家气象信息中心整编的566站逐日平均温度资料以及NCEP/NCAR(美国环境预报中心和国家大气研究中心)的逐日再分析资料等,利用奇异值分解(SVD)等方法,首先分析了年际尺度上冬季北大西洋风暴轴与同期我国寒潮频次的联系。发现,北大西洋风暴轴位置异常与我国寒潮频次变化存在显著的相关关系,即当在40°W以西风暴轴较气候平均位置偏北(偏南)和在40°W以东风暴轴较气候平均位置偏东北(偏西南)时,同期我国大部分地区的寒潮频次异常偏少(偏多),而其强度异常与我国寒潮频次变化的年际关系并不显著。进一步的分析结果表明,风暴轴位置的改变会引起天气尺度瞬变涡动的传播出现异常,而这种传播异常既可以直接影响我国寒潮活动,也可以通过其反馈作用影响大气环流来间接影响我国的寒潮活动。具体的可能影响过程如下:当风暴轴偏东北(偏西南)时,其离亚洲西风急流的位置较远(较近),不利(有利)于将北大西洋上强的瞬变涡动通过亚洲西风急流波导直接传播到我国地区;此时,北大西洋西风急流偏北(偏南),相应地北大西洋涛动(NAO)出现正(负)位相异常,而传播到下游的瞬变涡动通过动力反馈作用,可使得高纬西风加速(减速),极涡加深收缩(减弱扩张),冷空气禁锢在极地不易(容易)南下,而中纬西风则减速(加速),经向环流加强(减弱),从而引起西伯利亚低层冷堆温度增高(降低);最后,所有上述环流异常形势以及瞬变波的异常传播可最终导致我国的寒潮活动频次减少(增多)。
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