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不同升温阈值下中国地区极端气候事件变化预估

陈晓晨 徐影 姚遥

陈晓晨, 徐影, 姚遥. 不同升温阈值下中国地区极端气候事件变化预估[J]. 大气科学, 2015, 39(6): 1123-1135. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1502.14224
引用本文: 陈晓晨, 徐影, 姚遥. 不同升温阈值下中国地区极端气候事件变化预估[J]. 大气科学, 2015, 39(6): 1123-1135. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1502.14224
CHEN Xiaochen, XU Ying, YAO Yao. Changes in Climate Extremes over China in a 2℃, 3℃, and 4℃ Warmer World[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 39(6): 1123-1135. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1502.14224
Citation: CHEN Xiaochen, XU Ying, YAO Yao. Changes in Climate Extremes over China in a 2℃, 3℃, and 4℃ Warmer World[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 39(6): 1123-1135. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1502.14224

不同升温阈值下中国地区极端气候事件变化预估

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1502.14224
基金项目: 公益性行业(气象)科研专项GYHY201306019,国家科技支撑项目2014BAJ01B01,中国气象局气候变化专项CCSF201525,中国瑞士合作项目ACCCⅡ

Changes in Climate Extremes over China in a 2℃, 3℃, and 4℃ Warmer World

  • 摘要: 本文基于耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)的18个全球气候模式的模拟结果,预估了全球平均气温在不同典型浓度路径(RCPs)下达到2℃、3℃和4℃阈值时,中国地区气温和降水的变化,并采用了具有稳定统计意义的27个极端气候指标定量评估了全球平均气温达到不同阈值时,中国地区极端气候事件的可能变化。结果表明,未来我国平均气温增幅将高于全球平均增暖,极端暖事件(如暖夜、暖昼、热带夜)明显增多,达到4℃阈值时,暖夜指数相比参考时段增加约49.9%。极端冷事件(如冷夜、冷昼、霜冻)减少。随全球气温升高,中国北方平均降水增多。在不同升温阈值下,中国地区降水的极端性都体现出增强的趋势,强降水事件发生频率(如中雨日数、大雨日数)和强度(如五日最大降水量、极端强降水量)都明显增加。随升温阈值的升高,这些变化幅度更大,在 RCP8.5 情景下全球升温 3℃和4℃时,中国平均五日最大降水分别增加 12.5mm和17.0mm。我国西南地区极端降水强度的增幅高于其他地区。
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2014-07-09
  • 修回日期:  2015-02-05

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