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三维变分同化机载雷达资料对飓风预报的影响研究——2012年Isaac试验

陆续 马旭林 王旭光

陆续, 马旭林, 王旭光. 三维变分同化机载雷达资料对飓风预报的影响研究——2012年Isaac试验[J]. 大气科学, 2015, 39(6): 1112-1122. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1503.14262
引用本文: 陆续, 马旭林, 王旭光. 三维变分同化机载雷达资料对飓风预报的影响研究——2012年Isaac试验[J]. 大气科学, 2015, 39(6): 1112-1122. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1503.14262
LU Xu, MA Xulin, WANG Xuguang. A Study of the Impact of Airborne Radar Data Assimilated by 3DVar on the Prediction of Hurricane-Isaac 2012[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 39(6): 1112-1122. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1503.14262
Citation: LU Xu, MA Xulin, WANG Xuguang. A Study of the Impact of Airborne Radar Data Assimilated by 3DVar on the Prediction of Hurricane-Isaac 2012[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 39(6): 1112-1122. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1503.14262

三维变分同化机载雷达资料对飓风预报的影响研究——2012年Isaac试验

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1503.14262
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目41275111,飓风预报改进项目(Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project, USA)

A Study of the Impact of Airborne Radar Data Assimilated by 3DVar on the Prediction of Hurricane-Isaac 2012

  • 摘要: 随着气旋内部资料(Inner core data)在热带气旋预报中的使用,其重要性逐渐受到人们越来越多的关注。为了研究该资料中尾部机载雷达(Tail Doppler Radar,TDR)资料在业务系统中的应用效果,本文利用2012年飓风等级热带气旋Isaac期间的TDR资料,采用业务HWRF(Weather Research and Forecasting model for Hurricane)数值模式与业务GSI(Grid-point Statistical Interpolation system)三维变分同化(Three-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation, 3DVar)系统对TDR资料进行了同化,展开了一系列预报试验,并对其效果进行了分析和研究。结果表明与HWRF的业务预报相比,GSI系统同化TDR资料后对热带气旋的路径和强度预报有明显改进;但其同化效果同时也表明业务三维变分中的静态背景误差协方差在TDR资料的应用中仍需要进一步的改进。
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2014-09-11
  • 修回日期:  2015-03-15

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