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2006~2013年CMIP5模式中国降水预估误差分析

张蓓 戴新刚

张蓓, 戴新刚. 2006~2013年CMIP5模式中国降水预估误差分析[J]. 大气科学, 2016, 40(5): 981-994. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1511.15212
引用本文: 张蓓, 戴新刚. 2006~2013年CMIP5模式中国降水预估误差分析[J]. 大气科学, 2016, 40(5): 981-994. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1511.15212
ZHANG Bei, DAI Xin'gang. Assessment of the Deviation of China Precipitation Projected by CMIP5 Models for 2006-2013[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2016, 40(5): 981-994. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1511.15212
Citation: ZHANG Bei, DAI Xin'gang. Assessment of the Deviation of China Precipitation Projected by CMIP5 Models for 2006-2013[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2016, 40(5): 981-994. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1511.15212

2006~2013年CMIP5模式中国降水预估误差分析

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1511.15212
基金项目: 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目2013CB430201,国家自然科学基金项目41475075、41075058

Assessment of the Deviation of China Precipitation Projected by CMIP5 Models for 2006-2013

  • 摘要: 用第五次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)的10个模式模拟结果与英国东安格利亚大学(UEA)气候研究机构(CRU)的最新降水格点分析资料比较,评估了三种典型浓度路径(RCPs)排放情景下模式集合对2006~2013年中国降水预估误差,结果发现模式间年降水预估在西北和东部沿海地区差异较明显,在沿海地区模式降水估计偏少,在西部和北方大部分地区偏多;冬半年大部分地区模式降水明显偏多,部分地区甚至偏多一倍以上;夏半年东部季风区降水估计偏少,但西部仍然偏多。模式降水误差随时间变化,夏半年误差变化明显的区域主要集中在北方和东部地区,冬半年在东北南部、华东及华南等地。此外,提高排放情景对年降水量估计影响明显的地区主要集中在我国西部的部分地区,加剧了西北模式降水估计偏多程度,但对东部地区影响不大。El Niño与La Niña年的模式降水误差分布相似,仅在沿海部分地区和华北北部差异较明显,逐年误差分布特征也与此相似。各种误差的对比分析表明,模式降水误差可能多来自模式本身存在的问题,如积云对流参数化、固体降水物理过程、地形处理及分辨率等。这些误差特征说明,直接使用CMIP5模式集合情景输出资料估计未来降水的方法存在较大的不确定性,必须对其进行评估,以降低潜在用户或决策者们制定未来规划的风险。
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