全球变暖趋缓研究进展

苏京志; 温敏; 丁一汇; 郜永祺; 宋亚芳

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1512.15242

全球变暖趋缓研究进展

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1512.15242

1.
中国气象科学研究院, 北京 100081
2.
国家气候中心, 北京 100081
3.
中国科学院大气物理研究所, 北京 100029;南森环境与遥感中心, 挪威卑尔根5006

基金项目: 国家自然科学项目41376020，中国科学院战略性先导科技专项XDA05110203

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2015-08-06

Hiatus of Global Warming: A Review

1.
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081
2.
National Climate Center, Beijing 100081
3.
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen 5006, Norway

摘要

摘要: 近十几年来，全球年平均表面温度上升趋势显示出停滞状态，即全球变暖趋缓，这引起了国际社会的广泛关注，同时也引发了对全球变暖的质疑，各国气候学家正努力就全球变暖趋缓的事实、原因及其可能影响展开研究。本文综述了目前国内外对全球变暖趋缓的研究结果。多数科学家认可近十几年来全球变暖停滞的事实，并认为太阳活动处于低位相、大气气溶胶（自然和人为）增加以及海洋吸收热量是变暖停滞的可能影响因子，其中海洋（尤其是700米以下的深海）对热量的储存可能是变暖停滞的关键。国际耦合模式比较计划第5阶段中的模式并未精确地描述各种有利降温影响因子的近期位相演变，因而其模拟的近期增暖趋势较观测偏强。由此推断，变暖停滞主要是自然因素造成的，并且预测变暖趋缓将在近几年或几十年内结束（依赖于太平洋年代际振荡的位相转变），未来气温将仍主要受到温室气体增加的影响而表现出明显的上升趋势。因此，目前的全球变暖趋缓不大可能改变到本世纪末全球大幅度变暖带来的风险。本综述展望未来的研究热点包括：精确估算全球气温和海洋热含量的变率及其不确定性，海洋年代际信号（太平洋以及大西洋的年代际振荡）的转型机制，存储在深海的热量将在何时返回海洋表面及其对区域气候的潜在影响。
- 全球变暖 /
- 变暖趋缓 /
- 海洋吸收热量 /
- 年代际变化
Abstract: The slowdown in the global mean surface temperature (GMST) warming over the past decade or so,referred to as the global warming "hiatus",has attracted wide attention and also cast public doubt on global warming.Great efforts have been made to verify the global warming hiatus,as well as its causes and influences.This paper reviews and summarizes results of recent researches on the global warming hiatus.It is generally accepted that the GMST warming tendency is slowing down recently.So far,proposed reasons to explain the hiatus include:the prolonged solar minimum,the increase in anthropogenic and natural aerosol emissions,and changes in ocean heat storage/re-distribution.Particularly,the increased ocean heat storage below 700 m has been identified during the global warming hiatus.Most of the models participating the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 failed to capture the global warming hiatus and therefore overestimated the observed trend in GMST.One general consensus is that natural climate variability instead of the external forcing caused the recent global warming hiatus.It is argued that the global warming hiatus would likely stop within several years or several decades,depending on the transition of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.If the radiative forcing of the greenhouse gases continues to intensify,an apparent increase in GMST would be expected in future.We suggest that future research related to the global warming hiatus should focus on:(1) more accurate estimation of the GMST and the ocean heat content;(2) better understanding of the transition of decadal and multi-decadal (Pacific and Atlantic) oscillations;(3) uptake of energy stored in deep oceans and its impact on regional climate.
- Global warming /
- Hiatus /
- Heat storage in ocean /
- Decadal oscillation

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