全球变暖趋缓研究进展

苏京志; 温敏; 丁一汇; 郜永祺; 宋亚芳

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1512.15242

全球变暖趋缓研究进展

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1512.15242

1.
中国气象科学研究院, 北京 100081
2.
国家气候中心, 北京 100081
3.
中国科学院大气物理研究所, 北京 100029;南森环境与遥感中心, 挪威卑尔根5006

基金项目: 国家自然科学项目41376020，中国科学院战略性先导科技专项XDA05110203

计量
- 文章访问数: 4972
- HTML全文浏览量: 223
- PDF下载量: 3838
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2015-08-06

Hiatus of Global Warming: A Review

1.
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081
2.
National Climate Center, Beijing 100081
3.
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen 5006, Norway

摘要

摘要: 近十几年来，全球年平均表面温度上升趋势显示出停滞状态，即全球变暖趋缓，这引起了国际社会的广泛关注，同时也引发了对全球变暖的质疑，各国气候学家正努力就全球变暖趋缓的事实、原因及其可能影响展开研究。本文综述了目前国内外对全球变暖趋缓的研究结果。多数科学家认可近十几年来全球变暖停滞的事实，并认为太阳活动处于低位相、大气气溶胶（自然和人为）增加以及海洋吸收热量是变暖停滞的可能影响因子，其中海洋（尤其是700米以下的深海）对热量的储存可能是变暖停滞的关键。国际耦合模式比较计划第5阶段中的模式并未精确地描述各种有利降温影响因子的近期位相演变，因而其模拟的近期增暖趋势较观测偏强。由此推断，变暖停滞主要是自然因素造成的，并且预测变暖趋缓将在近几年或几十年内结束（依赖于太平洋年代际振荡的位相转变），未来气温将仍主要受到温室气体增加的影响而表现出明显的上升趋势。因此，目前的全球变暖趋缓不大可能改变到本世纪末全球大幅度变暖带来的风险。本综述展望未来的研究热点包括：精确估算全球气温和海洋热含量的变率及其不确定性，海洋年代际信号（太平洋以及大西洋的年代际振荡）的转型机制，存储在深海的热量将在何时返回海洋表面及其对区域气候的潜在影响。
- 全球变暖 /
- 变暖趋缓 /
- 海洋吸收热量 /
- 年代际变化
Abstract: The slowdown in the global mean surface temperature (GMST) warming over the past decade or so,referred to as the global warming "hiatus",has attracted wide attention and also cast public doubt on global warming.Great efforts have been made to verify the global warming hiatus,as well as its causes and influences.This paper reviews and summarizes results of recent researches on the global warming hiatus.It is generally accepted that the GMST warming tendency is slowing down recently.So far,proposed reasons to explain the hiatus include:the prolonged solar minimum,the increase in anthropogenic and natural aerosol emissions,and changes in ocean heat storage/re-distribution.Particularly,the increased ocean heat storage below 700 m has been identified during the global warming hiatus.Most of the models participating the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 failed to capture the global warming hiatus and therefore overestimated the observed trend in GMST.One general consensus is that natural climate variability instead of the external forcing caused the recent global warming hiatus.It is argued that the global warming hiatus would likely stop within several years or several decades,depending on the transition of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.If the radiative forcing of the greenhouse gases continues to intensify,an apparent increase in GMST would be expected in future.We suggest that future research related to the global warming hiatus should focus on:(1) more accurate estimation of the GMST and the ocean heat content;(2) better understanding of the transition of decadal and multi-decadal (Pacific and Atlantic) oscillations;(3) uptake of energy stored in deep oceans and its impact on regional climate.
- Global warming /
- Hiatus /
- Heat storage in ocean /
- Decadal oscillation

HTML全文

参考文献(69)

[1]	Blunden J,Arndt D S.2015.State of the climate in 2014[J].Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,96(7):ES1-ES32.
[2]	Blunden J,Arndt D S.2016.State of the climate in 2015[J].Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,97(8):S1-S275.
[3]	Chen X Y,Tung K K.2014.Varying planetary heat sink led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration[J].Science,345(6199):897-903,doi: 10.1126/science.1254937.
[4]	Cheng L J,Zhu J.2014.Artifacts in variations of ocean heat content induced by the observation system changes[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,41(20):7276-7283,doi: 10.1002/2014GL061881.
[5]	Cheng L J,Zhu J,Abraham J.2015.Global upper ocean heat content estimation:Recent progress and the remaining challenges[J].Atmos.Oceanic Sci.Lett.,8(6):333-338,doi: 10.3878/AOSL20150031.
[6]	Cohen J L,Furtado J C,Barlow M,et al.2012.Asymmetric seasonal temperature trends[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,39(4):L04705,doi: 10.1029/2011GL050582.
[7]	Cowtan K,Way R G.2014.Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends[J].Quart.J.Roy.Meteor.Soc.,140(683):1935-1944,doi: 10.1002/qj.2297.
[8]	丁一汇,柳艳菊,梁苏洁,等.2014.东亚冬季风的年代际变化及其与全球气候变化的可能联系[J].气象学报,72(5):835-852.Ding Yihui,Liu Yanju,Liang Sujie,et al.2014.Interdecadal variability of the East Asian winter monsoon and its possible links to global climate change[J].Acta Meteor.Sinica (in Chinese),72(5):835-852,doi: 10.11676/qxxb2014.079.
[9]	Dong L,Zhou T J,Chen X L.2014.Changes of Pacific decadal variability in the twentieth century driven by internal variability,greenhouse gases,and aerosols[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,41(23):8570-8577,doi: 10.1002/2014GL062269.
[10]	Dong L,Zhou T J.2014.The formation of the recent cooling in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and the associated climate impacts:A competition of global warming,IPO,and AMO[J].J.Geophys.Res.Atmos.,119(19):11272-11287,doi: 10.1002/2013JD021395.
[11]	Drinkwater K F,Martin M,Medhaug I,et al.2014.The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation:Its manifestations and impacts with special emphasis on the Atlantic region north of 60°N[J].J.Mar.Syst.,133:117-130,doi: 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2013.11.001.
[12]	England M H,McGregor S,Spence P,et al.2014.Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus[J].Nature Climate Change,4(3):222-227,doi: 10.1038/nclimate2106.
[13]	Fyfe J C,Gillett N P,Zwiers F W.2013.Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years[J].Nature Climate Change,3(9):767-769,doi: 10.1038/nclimate1972.
[14]	Gao Y Q,Sun J Q,Li F,et al.2015.Arctic sea ice and Eurasian climate:A review[J].Adv.Atmos.Sci.,32(1):92-114,doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-0009-6.
[15]	Guemas V,Doblas-Reyes F J,Andreu-Burillo I,et al.2013.Retrospective prediction of the global warming slowdown in the past decade[J].Nature Climate Change,3(7):649-653,doi: 10.1038/nclimate1863.
[16]	Hansen J,Sato M,Karecha P,et al.2011.Earth's energy imbalance and its implications[J].Atmos.Chem.Phys.,11(24):13421-13449,doi: 10.5194/acp-11-13421-2011.
[17]	Haywood J M,Jones A,Jones G S.2014.The impact of volcanic eruptions in the period 2000-2013 on global mean temperature trends evaluated in the HadGEM2-ES climate model[J].Atmos.Sci.Lett.,15(2):92-96,doi: 10.1002/asl2.471.
[18]	He Y L,Huang J P,Ji M X.2014.Impact of land-sea thermal contrast on interdecadal variation in circulation and blocking[J].Climate Dyn.,43(12):3267-3279,doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2103-y.
[19]	Huber M,Knutti R.2014.Natural variability,radiative forcing and climate response in the recent hiatus reconciled[J].Nature Geosci.,7(9):651-656,doi: 10.1038/ngeo2228.
[20]	IPCC.2007.Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis[M].Solomon S,Qin D,Manning M,et al.,Eds.Cambridge,UK and New York,USA:Cambridge University Press.
[21]	IPCC.2013.Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis.Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M].Cambridge,UK and New York,USA:Cambridge University Press,1535 pp.
[22]	康丽华,陈文,王林,等.2009.我国冬季气温的年际变化及其与大气环流和海温异常的关系[J].气候与环境研究,14(1):45-53.Kang Lihua,Chen Wen,Wang Lin,et al.2009.Interannual variations of winter temperature in China and their relationship with the atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature[J].Climatic Environ.Res.(in Chinese),14(1):45-53,doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2009.01.05.
[23]	Karl T R,Arguez A,Huang B Y,et al.2015.Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus[J].Science,348(6242):1469-1472,doi: 10.1126/science.aaa5632.
[24]	Knight J R,Allan R J,Folland C K,et al.2005.A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,32(20):L20708,doi: 10.1029/2006GL026242.
[25]	Knight J,Kennedy J J,Folland C,et al.2009.Do global temperature trends over the last decade falsify climate predictions?[J].Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,90(8):S22-S23.
[26]	Kosaka Y,Xie S P.2013.Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling[J].Nature,501(7467):403-407,doi: 10.1038/nature12534.
[27]	Lee S K,Park W,Baringer M O,et al.2015.Pacific origin of the abrupt increase in Indian Ocean heat content during the warming hiatus[J].Nature Geosci.,8(6):445-449,doi: 10.1038/ngeo2438.
[28]	Le Page M.2013.No end to the warming[J].New Sci.,220(2946):34-38,doi: 10.1016/S0262-4079(13)62854-7.
[29]	Levitus S,Antonov J I,Boyer T P,et al.2012.World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0-2000 m),1955-2010[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,39(10):L10603,doi: 10.1029/2012GL051106.
[30]	Li J P,Sun C,Jin F F.2013.NAO implicated as a predictor of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature multidecadal variability[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,40(20):5497-5502,doi: 10.1002/2013GL057877.
[31]	Liu Z Y.2012.Dynamics of interdecadal climate variability:A historical perspective[J].J.Climate,25(6):1963-1995,doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI3980.1.
[32]	Luo J J,Sasakia W,Masumotoa Y.2012.Indian Ocean warming modulates Pacific climate change[J].Proc.Natl.Acad.Sci.USA,109(46):18701-18706,doi: 10.1073/pnas.1210239109.
[33]	Maher N,Sen Gupta A,England M H.2014.Drivers of decadal hiatus periods in the 20th and 21st centuries[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,41(16):5978-5986,doi: 10.1002/2014GL060527.
[34]	Mantua N J,Hare S R,Zhang Y,et al.1997.A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production[J].Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,78(6):1069-1079,doi: 10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2.0.CO;2.
[35]	Marotzke J,Forster P M.2015.Forcing,feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends[J].Nature,517(7536):565-570,doi: 10.1038/nature14117.
[36]	McGregor S,Timmermann A,Stuecker M F,et al.2014.Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming[J].Nature Climate Change,4(10):888-892,doi: 10.1038/nclimate2330.
[37]	Meehl G A,Hu A X,Arblaster J M,et al.2013.Externally forced and internally generated decadal climate variability associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation[J].J.Climate,26(18):7298-7310,doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00548.1.
[38]	Meehl G A,Teng H Y,Arblaster J M.2014.Climate model simulations of the observed early-2000s hiatus of global warming[J].Nature Climate Change,4(10):898-902,doi: 10.1038/nclimate2357.
[39]	Met Office.2013a.The recent pause in global warming (1):What do observations of the climate system tell us?[R].IPCC Fifth Assessment Report,27pp.
[40]	Met Office.2013b.The recent pause in global warming (2):What are the potential causes?[R].IPCC Fifth Assessment Report,22pp.
[41]	OtteråO H,Bentsen M,Drange H,et al.2010.External forcing as a metronome for Atlantic multidecadal variability[J].Nature Geosci.,3(10):688-694,doi: 10.1038/ngeo955.
[42]	Palmer M D,Roberts C D,Balmaseda M,et al.2015.Ocean heat content variability and change in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses[J].Climate Dyn.,doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2801-0.
[43]	Paolo F S,Fricker H A,Padman L.2015.Volume loss from Antarctic ice shelves is accelerating[J].Science,348(6232):327-331,doi: 10.1126/science.aaa0940.
[44]	Peings Y,Magnusdottir G.2014.Forcing of the wintertime atmospheric circulation by the multidecadal fluctuations of the North Atlantic Ocean[J].Environ.Res.Lett.,9(3):034018,doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034018.
[45]	Risbey J S,Lewandowsky S,Langlais C,et al.2014.Well-estimated global surface warming in climate projections selected for ENSO phase[J].Nature Climate Change,4(9):835-840,doi: 10.1038/nclimate2310.
[46]	Roberts C D,Palmer M D,McNeall D,et al.2015.Quantifying the likelihood of a continued hiatus in global warming[J].Nature Climate Change,5(4):337-342,doi: 10.1038/nclimate2531.
[47]	Robson J,Hodson D,Hawkins E,et al.2014.Atlantic overturning in decline?[J].Nature Geosci.,7(1):2-3,doi: 10.1038/ngeo2050.
[48]	Schmidt G A,Shindell D T,Tsigaridis K.2014.Reconciling warming trends[J].Nature Geosci.,7(3):158-160,doi: 10.1038/ngeo2105.
[49]	Semenov V A,Latif M,Dommenget D,et al.2010.The impact of North Atlantic-Arctic multidecadal variability on Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature[J].J.Climate,23(21):5668-5677,doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3347.1.
[50]	Smith S J,Edmonds J,Hartin C A,et al.2015.Near-term acceleration in the rate of temperature change[J].Nature Climate Change,5(4):333-336,doi: 10.1038/nclimate2552.
[51]	Solomon S,Rosenlof K H,Portmann R W,et al.2010.Contributions of stratospheric water vapor to decadal changes in the rate of global warming[J].Science,327(5970):1219-1223,doi: 10.1126/science.1182488.
[52]	宋斌,智协飞,胡耀兴.2015.全球变暖停滞的形成机制研究进展[J].大气科学学报,38(2):145-154.Song Bin,Zhi Xiefei,Hu Yaoxing.2015.A review of recent studies on global warming hiatus[J].Trans.Atmos.Sci.(in Chinese),3 8(2):145-154,doi: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20150105002.
[53]	Song Y,Yu Y Q,Lin P F.2014.The hiatus and accelerated warming decades in CMIP5 simulations[J].Adv.Atmos.Sci.,31(6):1316-1330,doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-3265-6.
[54]	Steinman B A,Mann M E,Miller S K.2015.Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures[J].Science,347(6225):988-991,doi: 10.1126/science.1257856.
[55]	Tollefson J.2013.Climate change:The forecast for 2018 is cloudy with record heat[J].Nature,499(7457):139-141,doi: 10.1038/499139a.
[56]	Tollefson J.2014.Climate change:The case of the missing heat[J].Nature,505(7483):276-278,doi: 10.1038/505276a.
[57]	Trenberth K E,Fasullo J T,Branstator G,et al.2014.Seasonal aspects of the recent pause in surface warming[J].Nature Climate Change,4(10):911-916,doi: 10.1038/nclimate2341.
[58]	Wang D X,Liu Z Y.2000.The Pathway of the interdecadal variability in the Pacific Ocean[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,45(17):1555-1561,doi: 10.1007/BF02886211.
[59]	Wang D X,Wang J,Wu L X,et al.2003.Relative importance of wind and buoyancy forcing for interdecadal regime shifts in the Pacific Ocean[J].Sci.China Ser.D,46(5):417-427,doi: 10.1360/03yd9037.
[60]	Wang D X,Wang C Z,Yang X Y,et al.2005.Winter Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature variability associated with the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,32(16):L16706,doi: 10.1029/2005GL022952.
[61]	王绍武,罗勇,唐国利,等.2010.近10年全球变暖停滞了吗?[J].气候变化研究进展,6(2):95-99.Wang Shaowu,Luo Yong,Tang Guoli,et al.2001.Does the global warming pause in the last decade:1999-2008?[J].Adv.Climate Change Res.(in Chinese),6(2):95-99,doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2010.02.004.
[62]	王绍武,罗勇,赵宗慈,等.2013.全球变暖的科学[M].北京:气象出版社,18-20.Wang Shaowu,Luo Yong,Zhao Zongci,et al.2013.The Sciences of Global Warming (in Chinese)[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,18-20.
[63]	王绍武,罗勇,赵宗慈,等.2014.全球变暖的停滞还能持续多久?[J].气候变化研究进展,10(6):465-468.Wang Shaowu,Luo Yong,Zhao Zongci,et al.2014.How long will the pause of global warming stay again?[J].Adv.Climate Change Res.(in Chinese),10(6):465-468,doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2014.06.011.
[64]	Wu L X,Liu Z Y,Li C,et al.2007.Extratropical control of recent tropical Pacific decadal climate variability:A relay teleconnection[J].Climate Dyn.,28(1):99-112,doi: 10.1007/s00382-006-0198-5.
[65]	Yang H J,Liu Z Y.2005.Tropical-extratropical climate interaction as revealed in idealized coupled climate model experiments[J].Climate Dyn.,24(7-8):863-879,doi: 10.1007/s00382-005-0021-8.
[66]	杨修群,朱益民,谢倩,等.2004.太平洋年代际振荡的研究进展[J].大气科学,28(6):979-992.Yang Xiuqun,Zhu Yimin,Xie Qian,et al.2004.Advances in studies of Pacific decadal oscillation[J].Chinese J.Atmos.Sci.(in Chinese),28(6):979-992,doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2004.06.15.
[67]	Yang X Y,Huang R X,Wang D X.2007.Decadal changes of wind stress over the southern ocean associated with Antarctic ozone depletion[J].J.Climate,20(14):3395-3410,doi: 10.1175/JCLI4195.1.
[68]	Yao S L,Huang G,Wu R G,et al.2016.The global warming hiatus-A natural product of interactions of a secular warming trend and a multi-decadal oscillation[J].Theor.Appl.Climatol.,123(1-2):349-360,doi: 10.1007/s00704-014-1358-x.
[69]	Yu L,Furevik T,OtteråO H,et al.2015.Modulation of the Pacific decadal oscillation on the summer precipitation over East China:A comparison of observations to 600-years control run of Bergen Climate Model[J].Climate Dyn.,44(1-2):475-494,doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2141-5.