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全球变暖趋缓研究进展

苏京志 温敏 丁一汇 郜永祺 宋亚芳

苏京志, 温敏, 丁一汇, 郜永祺, 宋亚芳. 全球变暖趋缓研究进展[J]. 大气科学, 2016, 40(6): 1143-1153. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1512.15242
引用本文: 苏京志, 温敏, 丁一汇, 郜永祺, 宋亚芳. 全球变暖趋缓研究进展[J]. 大气科学, 2016, 40(6): 1143-1153. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1512.15242
SU Jingzhi, WEN Min, DING Yihui, GAO Yongqi, SONG Yafang. Hiatus of Global Warming: A Review[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2016, 40(6): 1143-1153. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1512.15242
Citation: SU Jingzhi, WEN Min, DING Yihui, GAO Yongqi, SONG Yafang. Hiatus of Global Warming: A Review[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2016, 40(6): 1143-1153. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1512.15242

全球变暖趋缓研究进展

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1512.15242
基金项目: 国家自然科学项目41376020,中国科学院战略性先导科技专项XDA05110203

Hiatus of Global Warming: A Review

  • 摘要: 近十几年来,全球年平均表面温度上升趋势显示出停滞状态,即全球变暖趋缓,这引起了国际社会的广泛关注,同时也引发了对全球变暖的质疑,各国气候学家正努力就全球变暖趋缓的事实、原因及其可能影响展开研究。本文综述了目前国内外对全球变暖趋缓的研究结果。多数科学家认可近十几年来全球变暖停滞的事实,并认为太阳活动处于低位相、大气气溶胶(自然和人为)增加以及海洋吸收热量是变暖停滞的可能影响因子,其中海洋(尤其是700米以下的深海)对热量的储存可能是变暖停滞的关键。国际耦合模式比较计划第5阶段中的模式并未精确地描述各种有利降温影响因子的近期位相演变,因而其模拟的近期增暖趋势较观测偏强。由此推断,变暖停滞主要是自然因素造成的,并且预测变暖趋缓将在近几年或几十年内结束(依赖于太平洋年代际振荡的位相转变),未来气温将仍主要受到温室气体增加的影响而表现出明显的上升趋势。因此,目前的全球变暖趋缓不大可能改变到本世纪末全球大幅度变暖带来的风险。本综述展望未来的研究热点包括:精确估算全球气温和海洋热含量的变率及其不确定性,海洋年代际信号(太平洋以及大西洋的年代际振荡)的转型机制,存储在深海的热量将在何时返回海洋表面及其对区域气候的潜在影响。
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  • 收稿日期:  2015-08-06

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