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中国干湿区变化与预估

姜江 姜大膀 林一骅

姜江, 姜大膀, 林一骅. 中国干湿区变化与预估[J]. 大气科学, 2017, 41(1): 43-56. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1604.15223
引用本文: 姜江, 姜大膀, 林一骅. 中国干湿区变化与预估[J]. 大气科学, 2017, 41(1): 43-56. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1604.15223
Jiang JIANG, Dabang JIANG, Yihua LIN. Changes and Projection of Dry/Wet Areas over China[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2017, 41(1): 43-56. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1604.15223
Citation: Jiang JIANG, Dabang JIANG, Yihua LIN. Changes and Projection of Dry/Wet Areas over China[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2017, 41(1): 43-56. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1604.15223

中国干湿区变化与预估

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1604.15223
基金项目: 

国家自然科学基金项目 Grants 41375084 and 41421004

详细信息
    作者简介:

    姜江,女,1987年出生,博士,主要从事气候变化研究。E-mail:jiangjiang@mail.iap.ac.cn

    通讯作者:

    姜大膀,E-mail:jiangdb@mail.iap.ac.cn

  • 中图分类号: P467

Changes and Projection of Dry/Wet Areas over China

Funds: 

National Natural Science Foundation of China Grants 41375084 and 41421004

  • 摘要: 本文采用干湿指数对1962~2011年中国干湿区范围变化进行了集中分析,并利用CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5)模式对其变化趋势开展了预估研究。结果表明,1962~2011年平均极端干旱区、干旱区、半干旱区、半湿润区和湿润区分别占中国陆地总面积的2.8%、11.7%、22.4%、32.6%和30.5%。期间,中国区域年干湿指数总体上呈现下降趋势,空间上表现为西部湿润化和东部干旱化的特征。显著缩小的是湿润区和极端干旱区,半湿润区、半干旱区和干旱区则显著扩大,这表明中国气候敏感区域在扩张。春季和秋季干湿指数变化趋势的空间分布与年平均的较为一致,冬季西北呈干旱化,夏季东南部地区为湿润化。相对于参考时段1986~2005年,在RCP4.5(Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5)情景下18个气候模式中位数的预估结果中,降水仅在东南南部减少,而潜在蒸散发在全区域增加,由于潜在蒸散发的增量超过了降水的增幅,中国区域将整体趋于干旱化,仅在西北地区呈湿润化特征;未来湿润区、干旱区和极端干旱区缩小,气候敏感性高的半湿润区和半干旱区仍将扩大。
  • 图  1  1962~2011年中国干湿指数空间分布。指数≤0.05的为极端干旱区,0.05~0.20的为干旱区,0.20~0.50的为半干旱区,0.50~1.00的为半湿润区,≥1.00的为湿润区

    Figure  1.  Climatological dry/wet index in China for 1962-2011. Extreme arid region, arid region, semi-arid region, semi-humid region, and humid region are defined as the regions where the dry/wet index is less than 0.05, 0.05-0.20, 0.20-0.50, 0.50-1.00, and greater than 1.00, respectively

    图  2  1962~2011年中国极端干旱区(EAR)、干旱区(AR)、半干旱区(SAR)、半湿润区(SHR)和湿润区(HR)面积变化

    Figure  2.  Area Changes in extreme arid region (EAR), arid region (AR), semi-arid region (SAR), semi-humid region (SHR), and humid region (HR) in China for 1962-2011

    图  3  1962~2011年(a)降水量、(b)潜在蒸散发和(c)干湿指数变化趋势。图中打点区通过了95%信度检验

    Figure  3.  Change trends of (a) precipitation (P), (b) potential evapotranspiration (PET), and (c) dry/wet index for 1962-2011. The dotted areas represent change trends above 95% confidence level

    图  4  1962~2011年干湿指数(a)冬季、(b)春季、(c)、夏季、(d)秋季季节变化趋势。图中打点区通过了95%信度检验

    Figure  4.  Change trends of (a) winter, (b) spring, (c) summer, and (d) autumn dry/wet index for 1962-2011. The dotted areas represent change trends above 95% confidence level

    图  5  1962~2011年干湿指数及其影响因子潜在蒸散发(PET)、降水量(P)、最低温度(Tmin)、最高温度(Tmax)、相对湿度(RH)、地表净辐射(Rn)、2 m风速(Wind)的变化

    Figure  5.  Changes in dry/wet index and its impact factors PET, P, Tmin (minimum temperature), Tmax (maximum temperature), RH (relative humidity), Rn (surface net radiation), and wind at 2 m (Wind) for 1962-2011

    图  6  1986~2005年(a)观测的和(c)模式中位数的年降水量、(b)根据观测计算的潜在蒸散发和(d)相应模式中位数的值

    Figure  6.  Climatological (a) precipitation from observations and (c) median precipitation from multi-model simulations, (b) PET from observations and (d) median PET from multi-model simulations for 1986-2005

    图  7  在RCP4.5情景下多模式中位数预估的未来百年极端干旱区(EAR)、干旱区(AR)、半干旱区(SAR)、半湿润区(SHR)和湿润区(HR)面积变化。灰色区域代表多个模式结果间的1倍标准差

    Figure  7.  Area changes projection of extreme arid region (EAR), arid region (AR), semi-arid region (SAR), semi-humid region (SHR), and humid region (HR) based on median values of multi-model simulations under the RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) scenario. Grey areas denote one standard deviation of individual model simulations

    图  8  相对于1986~2005年,在RCP4.5情景下不同时段(2016~2035年、2046~2065年和2081~2099年)内,模式预估的(a)极端干旱区、(b)干旱区、(c)半干旱区、(d)半湿润区、(e)湿润区的干湿区面积变化。MEDIAN表示多模式中位数

    Figure  8.  Projected area changes in (a) arid region (EAR), (b) arid region (AR), (c) semi-arid region (SAR), (d) semi-humid region (SHR), and (e) humid region (HR) under the RCP4.5 for different periods (2016-2035, 2046-2065, and 2081-2099) derived from individual model simulations and their medians (MEDIAN) relative to those from the 1986-2005 historical run

    图  9  RCP4.5情景下(a)1986~2005年、(b)2016~2035年、(c)2046~2065年、(d)2081~2099年的模式模拟的中位数干湿指数空间分布

    Figure  9.  Distributions of dry/wet index based on multi-model medians (a) from 1986-2005 historical run, and for periods (b) 2016-2035, (c) 2046-2065, and (d) 2081-2099 under the RCP4.5 scenario

    图  10  相对于1986~2005年,2016~2035年(左)、2046~2065年(中)、2081~2099年(右)的模式中位数模拟的年降水量(上)、潜在蒸散发(中)和干湿指数(下)变化

    Figure  10.  Changes in annual precipitation (top), PET (middle), and dry/wet index (bottom) projected by multi-model medians for 2016-2035 (left), 2046-2065 (middle), and 2081-2099 (right) under the RCP4.5 scenario relative to 1986-2005

    表  1  CMIP5 中18 个模式及其试验信息

    Table  1.   Information of the 18 CMIP5 models and corresponding experiments

    序号模式名称国家分辨率(经向格点数×纬向格点数)历史气候模拟试验时段RCP4.5试验时段
    01CESM1-CAM5美国 128×1921850~2005年2006~2100年
    02CNRM-CM5法国 256×1281850~2005年2006~2100年
    03GFDL-CM3美国144×901860~2005年2006~2100年
    04GFDL-ESM2G美国144×901861~2005年2006~2100年
    05GFDL-ESM2M美国144×901861~2005年2006~2100年
    06GISS-E2-H美国144×901850~2005年2006~2100年
    07GISS-E2-H-CC美国144×901850~2010年2006~2100年
    08GISS-E2-R美国144×901850~2005年2006~2100年
    09GISS-E2-R-CC美国144×901850~2010年2006~2100年
    10HadGEM2-CC英国 192×1451859~2005年2006~2100年
    11HadGEM2-ES英国 192×1451859~2005年2006~2100年
    12INMCM4俄罗斯 180×1201850~2005年2006~2100年
    13IPSL-CM5A-LR法国 96×961850~2005年2006~2100年
    14IPSL-CM5A-MR法国 144×1431850~2005年2006~2100年
    15IPSL-CM5B-LR法国 96×961850~2005年2006~2100年
    16MIROC5日本 256×1281850~2012年2006~2100年
    17MIROC-ESM日本128×641850~2005年2006~2100年
    18MIROC-ESM-CHEM日本128×641850~2005年2006~2100年
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2015-07-05
  • 网络出版日期:  2016-04-19
  • 刊出日期:  2017-01-15

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