中国干湿区变化与预估

姜江; 姜大膀; 林一骅

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1604.15223

中国干湿区变化与预估

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1604.15223

姜江^{1, 2, 4,},
姜大膀^{1, 3, ,},
林一骅²

1.
中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢-南森国际研究中心, 北京 100029
2.
中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室, 北京 100029
3.
中国科学院气候变化研究中心, 北京 100029
4.
北京市气象服务中心, 北京 100089

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目 Grants 41375084 and 41421004

详细信息

作者简介:
姜江,女,1987年出生,博士,主要从事气候变化研究。E-mail:jiangjiang@mail.iap.ac.cn

通讯作者:
姜大膀,E-mail:jiangdb@mail.iap.ac.cn

中图分类号: P467
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2015-07-05
- 网络出版日期: 2016-04-19
- 刊出日期: 2017-01-15

Changes and Projection of Dry/Wet Areas over China

Jiang JIANG^{1, 2, 4
,},
Dabang JIANG^{1, 3
, ,},
Yihua LIN²

1.
Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
2.
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
3.
Climate Change Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
4.
Beijing Weather Service Center, Beijing 100089

Funds:

National Natural Science Foundation of China Grants 41375084 and 41421004

摘要

摘要: 本文采用干湿指数对1962~2011年中国干湿区范围变化进行了集中分析，并利用CMIP5（Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5）模式对其变化趋势开展了预估研究。结果表明，1962~2011年平均极端干旱区、干旱区、半干旱区、半湿润区和湿润区分别占中国陆地总面积的2.8%、11.7%、22.4%、32.6%和30.5%。期间，中国区域年干湿指数总体上呈现下降趋势，空间上表现为西部湿润化和东部干旱化的特征。显著缩小的是湿润区和极端干旱区，半湿润区、半干旱区和干旱区则显著扩大，这表明中国气候敏感区域在扩张。春季和秋季干湿指数变化趋势的空间分布与年平均的较为一致，冬季西北呈干旱化，夏季东南部地区为湿润化。相对于参考时段1986~2005年，在RCP4.5（Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5）情景下18个气候模式中位数的预估结果中，降水仅在东南南部减少，而潜在蒸散发在全区域增加，由于潜在蒸散发的增量超过了降水的增幅，中国区域将整体趋于干旱化，仅在西北地区呈湿润化特征；未来湿润区、干旱区和极端干旱区缩小，气候敏感性高的半湿润区和半干旱区仍将扩大。
- 干湿指数 /
- CMIP5模式 /
- RCP4.5情景 /
- 预估
Abstract: Based on the dry/wet index, the authors analyzed changes in dry/wet regions over China and projected their future change scenarios using CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models. For the period of 1962-2011, the results show that the averages of extreme arid, arid, semi-arid, semi-humid, and humid regions account for 2.8%, 11.7%, 22.4%, 32.6%, and 30.5% of the land area of the country, respectively. The dry/wet index decreases overall and tends to become wet in the west and dry in the east. There is a significant contraction of humid and extreme arid regions but a significant expansion of semi-humid, semi-arid, and arid regions, indicating an increase in the climatically sensitive regions. The distribution of the change trend of dry/wet index during the spring and autumn resembles that of the annual mean, and the northwest tends to become dry during the winter while the southeast is becoming wet during the summer. Under the RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) scenario, the median of the 18 CMIP5 models shows that, relative to the period of 1986-2005, annual precipitation would decrease only in the southeast, and the potential evapotranspiration would increase over the entire country, leading to dry/wet index decreases in most regions except the western part. The humid, arid, and extreme arid regions would reduce, while the opposite is true for the semi-arid and semi-humid regions.
- Dry/wet index /
- CMIP5 model /
- RCP4.5 scenario /
- Projection

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图 1 1962～2011年中国干湿指数空间分布。指数≤0.05的为极端干旱区，0.05～0.20的为干旱区，0.20～0.50的为半干旱区，0.50～1.00的为半湿润区，≥1.00的为湿润区

Figure 1. Climatological dry/wet index in China for 1962-2011. Extreme arid region, arid region, semi-arid region, semi-humid region, and humid region are defined as the regions where the dry/wet index is less than 0.05, 0.05-0.20, 0.20-0.50, 0.50-1.00, and greater than 1.00, respectively

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图 2 1962～2011年中国极端干旱区（EAR）、干旱区（AR）、半干旱区（SAR）、半湿润区（SHR）和湿润区（HR）面积变化

Figure 2. Area Changes in extreme arid region (EAR), arid region (AR), semi-arid region (SAR), semi-humid region (SHR), and humid region (HR) in China for 1962-2011

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图 3 1962～2011年（a）降水量、（b）潜在蒸散发和（c）干湿指数变化趋势。图中打点区通过了95%信度检验

Figure 3. Change trends of (a) precipitation (P), (b) potential evapotranspiration (PET), and (c) dry/wet index for 1962-2011. The dotted areas represent change trends above 95% confidence level

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图 4 1962～2011年干湿指数（a）冬季、（b）春季、（c）、夏季、（d）秋季季节变化趋势。图中打点区通过了95%信度检验

Figure 4. Change trends of (a) winter, (b) spring, (c) summer, and (d) autumn dry/wet index for 1962-2011. The dotted areas represent change trends above 95% confidence level

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图 5 1962～2011年干湿指数及其影响因子潜在蒸散发（P_ET）、降水量（P）、最低温度（T_min）、最高温度（T_max）、相对湿度（RH）、地表净辐射（R_n）、2 m风速（Wind）的变化

Figure 5. Changes in dry/wet index and its impact factors P_ET, P, T_min (minimum temperature), T_max (maximum temperature), RH (relative humidity), R_n (surface net radiation), and wind at 2 m (Wind) for 1962-2011

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图 6 1986～2005年（a）观测的和（c）模式中位数的年降水量、（b）根据观测计算的潜在蒸散发和（d）相应模式中位数的值

Figure 6. Climatological (a) precipitation from observations and (c) median precipitation from multi-model simulations, (b) P_ET from observations and (d) median PET from multi-model simulations for 1986-2005

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图 7 在RCP4.5情景下多模式中位数预估的未来百年极端干旱区（EAR）、干旱区（AR）、半干旱区（SAR）、半湿润区（SHR）和湿润区（HR）面积变化。灰色区域代表多个模式结果间的1倍标准差

Figure 7. Area changes projection of extreme arid region (EAR), arid region (AR), semi-arid region (SAR), semi-humid region (SHR), and humid region (HR) based on median values of multi-model simulations under the RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) scenario. Grey areas denote one standard deviation of individual model simulations

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图 8 相对于1986～2005年，在RCP4.5情景下不同时段（2016～2035年、2046～2065年和2081～2099年）内，模式预估的（a）极端干旱区、（b）干旱区、（c）半干旱区、（d）半湿润区、（e）湿润区的干湿区面积变化。MEDIAN表示多模式中位数

Figure 8. Projected area changes in (a) arid region (EAR), (b) arid region (AR), (c) semi-arid region (SAR), (d) semi-humid region (SHR), and (e) humid region (HR) under the RCP4.5 for different periods (2016-2035, 2046-2065, and 2081-2099) derived from individual model simulations and their medians (MEDIAN) relative to those from the 1986-2005 historical run

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图 9 RCP4.5情景下（a）1986～2005年、（b）2016～2035年、（c）2046～2065年、（d）2081～2099年的模式模拟的中位数干湿指数空间分布

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图 10 相对于1986～2005年，2016～2035年（左）、2046～2065年（中）、2081～2099年（右）的模式中位数模拟的年降水量（上）、潜在蒸散发（中）和干湿指数（下）变化

Figure 10. Changes in annual precipitation (top), P_ET (middle), and dry/wet index (bottom) projected by multi-model medians for 2016-2035 (left), 2046-2065 (middle), and 2081-2099 (right) under the RCP4.5 scenario relative to 1986-2005

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表 1 CMIP5 中18 个模式及其试验信息

Table 1. Information of the 18 CMIP5 models and corresponding experiments

序号	模式名称	国家	分辨率（经向格点数×纬向格点数）	历史气候模拟试验时段	RCP4.5试验时段
01	CESM1-CAM5	美国	128×192	1850～2005年	2006～2100年
02	CNRM-CM5	法国	256×128	1850～2005年	2006～2100年
03	GFDL-CM3	美国	144×90	1860～2005年	2006～2100年
04	GFDL-ESM2G	美国	144×90	1861～2005年	2006～2100年
05	GFDL-ESM2M	美国	144×90	1861～2005年	2006～2100年
06	GISS-E2-H	美国	144×90	1850～2005年	2006～2100年
07	GISS-E2-H-CC	美国	144×90	1850～2010年	2006～2100年
08	GISS-E2-R	美国	144×90	1850～2005年	2006～2100年
09	GISS-E2-R-CC	美国	144×90	1850～2010年	2006～2100年
10	HadGEM2-CC	英国	192×145	1859～2005年	2006～2100年
11	HadGEM2-ES	英国	192×145	1859～2005年	2006～2100年
12	INMCM4	俄罗斯	180×120	1850～2005年	2006～2100年
13	IPSL-CM5A-LR	法国	96×96	1850～2005年	2006～2100年
14	IPSL-CM5A-MR	法国	144×143	1850～2005年	2006～2100年
15	IPSL-CM5B-LR	法国	96×96	1850～2005年	2006～2100年
16	MIROC5	日本	256×128	1850～2012年	2006～2100年
17	MIROC-ESM	日本	128×64	1850～2005年	2006～2100年
18	MIROC-ESM-CHEM	日本	128×64	1850～2005年	2006～2100年

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