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基于偏振雷达的积层混合云降水增雨潜力识别方法研究

陈羿辰 何晖

陈羿辰, 何晖. 基于偏振雷达的积层混合云降水增雨潜力识别方法研究[J]. 大气科学, 2017, 41(3): 578-592.. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1611.16171
引用本文: 陈羿辰, 何晖. 基于偏振雷达的积层混合云降水增雨潜力识别方法研究[J]. 大气科学, 2017, 41(3): 578-592.. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1611.16171
Yichen CHEN, Hui HE. A Study to Determine Enhancement Potential for Convective-Stratiform Mixed Precipitation Based on Polarimetric Radar[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2017, 41(3): 578-592.. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1611.16171
Citation: Yichen CHEN, Hui HE. A Study to Determine Enhancement Potential for Convective-Stratiform Mixed Precipitation Based on Polarimetric Radar[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2017, 41(3): 578-592.. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1611.16171

基于偏振雷达的积层混合云降水增雨潜力识别方法研究

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1611.16171
基金项目: 

国家重点研发计划项目 Grant 2016YFA0602001

国家自然科学基金项目 Grants 41675138

国家自然科学基金项目 41375136

北京市自然科学基金资助项目 Grants 8174068

北京市自然科学基金资助项目 8154048

详细信息
    作者简介:

    陈羿辰, 男, 1983年出生, 硕士、工程师, 主要从事人工影响天气与气象雷达应用研究.E-mail:chenyichen@bjmb.gov.cn

  • 中图分类号: P401

A Study to Determine Enhancement Potential for Convective-Stratiform Mixed Precipitation Based on Polarimetric Radar

Funds: 

National Key Research and Development Program of China Grant 2016YFA0602001

National Natural Science Foundation of China Grants 41675138

National Natural Science Foundation of China 41375136

Beijing Natural Science Foundation Grants 8174068

Beijing Natural Science Foundation 8154048

  • 摘要: 本文统计分析了北京地区近三年的有效降水,重点研究了积层混合云降水特点并对其分类,发现积层混合云降水出现频次约占总降水次数的61%,其中积层混合云降水以积层连结型和水平混合型为主,二者之和占近80%。重点分析了积层混合云中对流和层云两种不同特点降水类型的宏微观结构,确立了反射率因子Z、温度T、粒子含水量M、催化剂AgⅠ(碘化银)活化率NE和粒子相态HTC(hydrometeor type classification)为人工增雨潜力识别指标及这些识别指标的取值范围,同时也根据研究现状和人工影响天气需求总结制定出人工增雨潜力等级。利用偏振雷达构建模糊逻辑识别算法对积层混合云三种降水类型进行增雨潜力区域识别研究,结果表明:(1)对于播撒碘化银增雨来说,积层混合云的增雨潜力区在垂直方向上可分为上、中、下三层,上层(增雨等级为“不适合”)和下层(零度层及以下)分别受含水量和温度等影响不适合增雨,中间层(增雨等级大于等于“等级一”)是可增雨区域;(2)积层混合云中层云区增雨潜力较小,对流云区可增雨潜力要远大于层云区,开式流场型与积层连结型可增雨潜力要大于水平混合型;(3)当降水云中识别出霰粒子时,其附近的大部分区域会有较好的增雨潜力。通过偏振雷达实例检验和数值模式模拟在积层混合云不同部位播撒碘化银催化试验发现,在增雨潜力较好的区域催化有很明显增雨效果,模拟试验结论与偏振雷达识别增雨潜力区结果也基本一致,说明基于偏振雷达的增雨潜力区识别方法和结果是具有参考意义的。
  • 图  1  AgⅠ活化率随温度T变化的曲线

    Figure  1.  Variation of AgⅠ nucleation efficiency with temperature (T)

    图  2  2013年6月28日21:09的RHI (垂直高度扫描) 扫描图:(a) 反射率因子;(b) 粒子相态识别结果;(c) 改进后的含水量 (单位:g m-3) 估测。图中两个红色矩形框分别表示距离雷达站18~28 km (层云区)、42~52 km (对流云区) 的区域

    Figure  2.  Radar scan images of RHI (range height indicator) at 2109 BJT (Beijing time) 28 June 2013: (a) Reflectivity factor; (b) particles phase identification; (c) improved particle water content. The red rectangle areas represent 18-28 km (stratiform clouds) and 42-52 km (convective clouds) from radar, respectively

    图  3  图 2中所选区域平均的反射率 (上) 和各种粒子采样距离库数 (下) 的垂直分布:(a)、(c) 层云区;(b)、(d) 对流云区

    Figure  3.  Vertical distributions of mean reflectivity (top panels) and range bins (bottom panels) in (a), (c) stratus cloud area and (b), (b) convection cloud area selected in Fig. 2

    图  4  图 2中所选区域所有粒子含水量平均值 (上) 与各种粒子含水量平均值 (下) 的垂直分布:(a)、(c) 层云区;(b)、(d) 对流云区

    Figure  4.  Vertical distributions of mean particle water content of all particles (top panels) and particle water content (bottom panels) in (a), (c) stratus cloud area and (b), (d) convection cloud area selected in Fig. 2

    图  5  模糊逻辑增雨潜力等级识别系统框图

    Figure  5.  Flow diagram of rain enhancement potential levels based on the fuzzy model and algorithm. Z, M, T, NE, and HTC represent reflectivity factor, particle water content, temperature, nucleation efficiency, and hydrometeor type classification. Inputs can belong to different fuzzy sets with different degrees of membership defined by a membership function (MBFi_j). Rain enhancement potential levels (RS) is constructed by the product of the individual propositions (PSi_j)

    图  6  含水量M的隶属函数

    Figure  6.  Membership function (MBF) of water content M

    图  7  2013年6月28日21:09时 (a) 反射率Z、(b) 含水量M、(c) 粒子相态HTC和 (d) 增雨潜力识别结果的垂直分布。方位角:91°,俯仰角:1°~50°

    Figure  7.  Vertical distributions of (a) reflectivity factor Z, (b) particle water content M, (c) hydrometeor type classification (HTC), and (d) identification results of rain enhancement potential levels at 2109 BJT 28 June 2013. Azimuth: 91°; elevation angle: 1°-50°

    图  8  图 7,但为2011年7月24日19:05的垂直分布。方位角:67°,俯仰角:1°~50°

    Figure  8.  As in Fig. 7, but for vertical distributions at 1905 BJT 24 July 2011. Azimuth: 67°; elevation angle: 1°-50°

    图  9  图 7,但为2013年6月24日17:41的垂直分布。方位角:271°,俯仰角:1°~50°

    Figure  9.  As in Fig. 7, but for vertical distributions at 1741 BJT 24 June 2013. Azimuth: 271°; elevation angle: 1°-50°

    图  10  2011年9月7日15:22(左)、15:25(中)、15:32(右) 增雨效果分析 (红框表示催化作业区域)。方位角:77°,俯仰角:1°~50°

    Figure  10.  Effects of rain enhancement at 1522 BJT (left column), 1525 BJT (middle column), and 1532 BJT (right column) on 7 September 2011. Red box: cloud seeding area. Azimuth: 77°; elevation angle: 1°-50°

    图  11  模拟的2012年5月29日12:00叠加在温度与流场上的雷达回波垂直剖面图。实 (虚) 线代表温度的正 (负) 值,黑框代表对流云区,蓝框代表对流入口区,红框代表层云区

    Figure  11.  Simulated vertical cross section of radar echo superposed on the temperature and airflow field at 1200BT on 29 May 2012. Solid (dashed) lines: positive (negative) temperature; black box: convective area; blue box: convective entrance; red box: stratiform cloud area

    图  12  2012年5月29日12:00催化作业影响区内催化作业与未催化作业地面累积雨量差值变化

    Figure  12.  Differences of accumulated surface rainfall between seeded and unseeded by AgⅠ at 1200BJT on 29 May 2012

    表  1  X波段偏振雷达主要性能指标

    Table  1.   Main specifications of X band polarimetric radar

    序号 指标项 详细说明
    1 雷达体制 双线偏振、全相参、单发双收/双发双收/脉间变极化
    2 工作频率 9370±30 MHz (X波段)
    3 探测范围 水平探测距离:75 km、100 km、150 km、300 km,方位扫描范围:0°~360°,俯仰扫描范围:-2°~+90°
    4 探测要素 水平反射率、径向速度、速度谱宽、差分反射率、差分传播相移、零相关系数
    5 探测精度 强度:≤1 dBZ,速度:≤1 m s-1,谱宽:≤1 m s-1,差分反射率:≤0.2 dB,线性退偏振比:≤0.2 dB,单位差分传播相移:≤1°/km
    6 探测模式 VOL (立体扫描)、PPI (平面位置扫描)、RHI (垂直高度扫描) 及sPPI (扇形扫描),天线转速:0.5~4 rpm
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  2012~2014年3~10月北京地区降水类型统计

    Table  2.   Statistics of precipitation types in Beijing area from March to October in 2012-2014

    年份 积层混合云
    类型
    出现
    频次
    占积层混合云
    降水比例
    占3~10月总
    降水比例
    2012 开式流场型 4 17% 59%
    积层连结型 11 48%
    水平混合型 8 35%
    2013 开式流场型 2 7% 71%
    积层连结型 16 53%
    水平混合型 12 40%
    2014 开式流场型 9 21% 57%
    积层连结型 20 48%
    水平混合型 13 31%
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  2009~2015年偏振雷达冰雹识别与地面降雹对比统计结果

    Table  3.   Statistics of comparison results of polarimetric radar observations and surface hail records

    年份 地面降雹/次 偏振雷达冰
    雹识别/次
    未识别原因
    2009 7 4 两次不在观测范围内,一次断电
    2010 7 5 一次波束阻挡,一次断电
    2011 12 11 波束阻挡
    2012 8 7 断电
    2013 15 13 两次波束阻挡
    2014 16 15 雷达停机维修
    2015 18 14 平谷区波束阻挡四次
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  增雨潜力等级对应参数的范围

    Table  4.   Parameter ranges corresponding to rain enhancement potential (REP) levels

    增雨
    潜力
    参数范围
    Z/dBZ M/g m-3 T/℃ NE/m-3 HTC
    不适合 -5~50 0.01~3 -3~40 0~3 雨滴
    一级 20~40 0.05~0.2 -15~-2 1.6~8 霰、融化的雪、雪
    二级 30~45 0.1~0.4 -20~-5 4~12 霰、冰晶
    三级 30~55 0.2~1 -40~-8 8~16 霰、冰晶、过冷水、冰雹
    注:Z表示反射率,M表示粒子含水量,T表示温度,NE表示AgⅠ活化率,HTC表示粒子相态识别。
    下载: 导出CSV
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