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中国降水的季节性

姚世博 姜大膀 范广洲

姚世博, 姜大膀, 范广洲. 中国降水的季节性[J]. 大气科学, 2017, 41(6): 1191-1203. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1703.16233
引用本文: 姚世博, 姜大膀, 范广洲. 中国降水的季节性[J]. 大气科学, 2017, 41(6): 1191-1203. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1703.16233
Shibo YAO, Dabang JIANG, Guangzhou FAN. Seasonality of Precipitation over China[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2017, 41(6): 1191-1203. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1703.16233
Citation: Shibo YAO, Dabang JIANG, Guangzhou FAN. Seasonality of Precipitation over China[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2017, 41(6): 1191-1203. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1703.16233

中国降水的季节性

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1703.16233
基金项目: 

国家重点研发计划 2016YFA0600704

国家自然科学基金项目 41421004

详细信息
    作者简介:

    姚世博, 男, 1991年出生, 博士研究生, 主要从事气候变化研究。E-mail:190636012@qq.com

    通讯作者:

    姜大膀, E-mail:jiangdb@mail.iap.ac.cn

  • 中图分类号: P467

Seasonality of Precipitation over China

Funds: 

National Key R&D Program of China 2016YFA0600704

National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) 41421004

  • 摘要: 本文使用一套基于中国气象局所属的2416个台站数据所得的高分辨降水资料,对1961~2013年中国降水季节性进行了研究。就全国平均而言,各季节降水占全年降水百分率最高的为夏季(56.5%),春季(19.3%)和秋季(18.9%)次之,冬季(5.3%)最少;针对不同地区,各季节降水百分率存在很大差异,例如华南春季降水最多、东北至高原一线秋季降水大于春季降水。春、夏两季降水百分率高值(低值)区域略呈现出降水百分率减少(增多)趋势,秋季整体上略微减少,冬季则显著增加;季节降水百分率的变率整体表现为夏季大而冬季小,其西部的变率与地形为显著负相关,东部变率的大值区位置随季节变化;秋冬两季的降水百分率变率有显著增加,各季节不同地区变率的变化趋势存在明显差异。
  • 图  1  1961~2013年中国区域各季节降水占全年降水百分率的气候态(填色)与降水百分率变化趋势[圆圈,单位:% (10 a)-1]分布,中国10个子区域范围表示在春季与夏季的图中。绿色(红色)实心圈表示的增加(减小)趋势,且实心圈表示置信水平为95%

    Figure  1.  The climatology (shading) and trend [circles, units: % (10 a) -1] of seasonal proportion of precipitation in China, during 1961–2013. The 10 subregions in China are illustrated in the top two panels for spring and summer. Solid circles indicate the confidence level at 95% and green (red) circles indicate increasing (decreasing) trend

    图  2  1961~2013年降水最大季节与次大季节排序分布图。“Sm-A”表示降水最大与次大季节依次是夏季、秋季;“Sm-S”表示降水最大与次大季节依次是夏季、春季;“S-Sm”表示降水最大与次大季节依次是春季、夏季;“A-Sm”表示降水最大与次大季节依次是秋季、夏季

    Figure  2.  Seasonal precipitation regimes in China during 1961–2013. "Sm-A" means the proportion of precipitation is the largest in summer, followed by that in autumn; "Sm-S" means the proportion of precipitation is the largest in summer, followed by that in spring; "S-Sm" means the proportion of precipitation is the largest in spring, followed by that in summer; "A-Sm" means that the proportion of precipitation is the largest in autumn, followed by that summer

    图  3  1961~2013年中国全区各季节降水占全年降水百分比区域平均的时间序列(粗实线),以及滑动t检验量的时间序列(细实线)。两条虚线分别为两者99%的置信水平的临界值;线段为发生突变的两段时期的平均值

    Figure  3.  Area-averaged time series (thick curves) of the proportion of seasonal precipitation to total annual precipitation for China during 1961–2013. Thin curves indicate the corresponding moving t-test statistics series, and dashed lines indicate the 99% confidence level that denotes an abrupt climatic change. The horizontal line segments highlight the two periods before and after the abrupt climatic change

    图  4  1961~2013年中国区域各季节降水占全年降水百分比的标准差(填色)和降水百分比的9年滑动标准差的变化趋势[圆圈,单位:% (10 a)-1],红色(绿色)实心圈表示的增加(减小)趋势,且实心圈表示的置信水平为95%

    Figure  4.  Standard deviations (shading) of seasonal proportion of precipitation and the trend of 9-year running standard deviation of precipitation proportion (circles, units: % (10 a)-1) in China during 1961–2013. Solid circles indicate the confidence level at 95% and red (green) circles indicate increasing (decreasing) trend

    图  5  1961~2009年中国区域各季节降水占全年降水百分率区域平均的9年滑动标准差的时间序列(粗实线),以及滑动t检验量的时间序列(细实线)。虚线为99%的置信水平的临界值;线段为发生突变的两段时期的平均值

    Figure  5.  Area-averaged time series (thick curves) of 9-year running standard deviation of seasonal precipitation proportion to total annual precipitation in China during 1961–2013. Thin curves indicate the corresponding moving t-test statistics series, and dashed lines indicate the 99% confidence level that signifies a significant climatic change. The horizontal line segments highlight the two periods before and after the climatic change

    图  6  1961~2013年中国10个分区各季节降水百分比区域平均值的时间序列。绿、红、黄、蓝实线分别表示春、夏、秋、冬四个季节;对应的彩色实线表示某季节发生突变的两段时期的平均值。突变检验方法为滑动t检验,置信水平为99%

    Figure  6.  Interannual variations in the proportion of seasonal precipitation during 1961–2013 for the 10 subregions in China. Green, red, yellow, and blue lines represent spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. The colored horizontal solid lines indicate the periods before and after the abrupt climatic change using moving t-test at the 99% confidence level on the decadal scale

    图  7  1961~2013年中国10个分区各季节降水百分比区域平均的9年滑动标准差的时间序列。图中绿、红、黄、蓝实线分别表示春、夏、秋、冬四个季节

    Figure  7.  9-year running standard deviation of seasonal precipitation proportion during 1961–2013 for the 10 subregions in China. Green, red, yellow, and blue lines represent spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively

    表  1  中国全区及10个分区的经、纬度范围

    Table  1.   Longitude and latitude ranges of China as a whole and its 10 subregions

    地区 简称 纬度范围 经度范围
    中国全区 All 17°~55°N 72°~136°E
    东北 NEC38°~54°N 119°~135°E
    华北 NC 36°~46°N 111°~119°E
    华东 EC 25°~33°N 116°~122°E
    华中 CC 25°~33°N 106°~116°E
    黄淮 HH 33°~36°N 113°~122°E
    关中 GZ 33°~36°N 106°~113°E
    华南 SC 17°~25°N 106°~120°E
    青藏高原 SWC1 27°~36°N 75°~106°E
    西南 SWC2 21°~27°N 98°~106°E
    西北 NWC 36°~50°N 72°~111°E
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  1961~2013年中国全区及10个分区区域平均的各季节降水百分比的气候态与变化趋势

    Table  2.   Climatology and trends of the proportion of seasonal precipitation for the 10 geographic subregions in China during 1961–2013

    中国全区及10个分区区域季节降水百分比的气候态与变化趋势
    All NEC NC EC CC HH GZ SC SWC1 SWC2 NWC
    春季 气候态 19.3% 14.8% 14.1% 31.5% 30.4% 17.8% 20.0% 29.4% 15.1% 16.3% 19.5%
    趋势/% (10 a)-1 0.17 0.72* 0.65 -0.92* -0.45 -0.12 -0.63 -0.05 0.49* 0.70* -0.06
    夏季 气候态 56.5% 65.3% 65.2% 39.3% 40.7% 56.8% 49.1% 45.0% 61.5% 55.4% 56.5%
    趋势/% (10 a)-1 -0.23 -0.67 -1.13* 0.97* 0.85* 0.52 1.36* 0.25 -0.49* -0.39 -0.32
    秋季 气候态 18.9% 17.0% 18.2% 16.6% 19.6% 19.6% 27.2% 17.2% 19.9% 23.8% 18.1%
    趋势/% (10 a)-1 -0.18 -0.26 0.38 -0.70* -0.68* -0.80 -0.92 -0.35 -0.12 -0.37 0.03
    冬季 气候态 5.3% 2.9% 2.5% 12.6% 9.3% 5.8% 3.7% 8.4% 3.5% 4.5% 5.9%
    趋势/% (10 a)-1 0.25* 0.21* 0.10 0.65 0.29 0.41 0.19 0.16 0.11 0.06 0.35*
    *表示通过置信水平为95%的统计检验。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  1961~2013年中国全区及10个分区区域平均的各季节降水百分比的标准差与9年滑动标准差的变化趋势

    Table  3.   Standard deviation of seasonal proportion of precipitation and the trend of 9-year running standard deviation of precipitation proportion for 10 geographic subregions in China during 1961–2013

    中国全区及10个分区区域季节降水百分比的标准差与9年滑动标准差的变化趋势
    All NEC NC EC CC HH GZ SC SWC1 SWC2 NWC
    春季 标准差 5.99% 5.37% 5.81% 7.27% 6.17% 7.56% 6.41% 6.7% 3.82% 4.68% 7.76%
    趋势/% (10 a)-1 0.01 0.38* 0.26* -0.23 0.2* 0.35 0.8* -0.09 0.01 0.02 -0.14
    夏季 标准差 7.76% 7.17% 8.92% 8.01% 7.95% 10.33% 8.77% 7.9% 5.52% 6.26% 9.35%
    趋势/% (10 a)-1 -0.05 -0.01 0.26* -0.04 -0.09 -0.12 -0.52* -0.17 -0.13* -0.34* 0.29*
    秋季 标准差 6.12% 5.51% 6.94% 5.76% 5.99% 8.67% 8.29% 6.04% 4.45% 5.27% 7.39%
    趋势/% (10 a)-1 0.14* -0.28* -0.20 -0.25* 0.15* 0.35* 0.06 0.11 -0.14* 0.11 0.59*
    冬季 标准差 2.51% 1.48% 1.56% 4.87% 3.34% 3.63% 1.97% 4.17% 1.38% 2.35% 3.18%
    趋势% (10 a)-1 0.08* 0.07* 0.06 -0.12 0.09 0.03 0.08 0.04 0.11* -0.14* 0.10*
    *表示通过置信水平为95%的统计检验。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  1961~2013年中国各季节降水比率标准差空间分布与海拔高度的空间相关系数

    Table  4.   The spatial correlation coefficient between the standard deviation of seasonal proportion of precipitation and topography height during period 1961–2013 in China

    降水百分率标准差空间分布与海拔高度的空间相关系数
    全区 106°E以东 106°E以西
    春季 -0.53* -0.27* -0.72*
    夏季 -0.49* -0.08 -0.65*
    秋季 -0.42* -0.02 -0.64*
    冬季 -0.44* -0.48* -0.57*
    注:表中“106°E以东”表示仅仅计算106°E以东的各季节降水比率标准差的空间分布与海拔高度的空间相关系数,“106°E以西”与此类似。
    *表示通过置信水平为99%的统计检验。
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2016-09-15
  • 网络出版日期:  2017-03-22
  • 刊出日期:  2017-11-15

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