东北亚地区初夏、盛夏和传统夏季降水特征及环流型的异同性研究

胡泊; 申红艳; 王晓娟; 封国林

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1706.16290

东北亚地区初夏、盛夏和传统夏季降水特征及环流型的异同性研究

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1706.16290

胡泊^1,,
申红艳¹,
王晓娟^3, ,,
封国林^{1, 2, 4}

1.
兰州大学大气科学学院, 兰州 730000
2.
中国气象局国家气候中心开放实验室和预测室, 北京 100081
3.
常熟理工学院物理信息与工程学院, 江苏常熟 215100
4.
扬州大学物理科学与技术学院, 江苏扬州 225002

基金项目:

公益性行业（气象）专项 GYHY201306021

国家自然科学基金项目 41575082

国家自然科学基金项目 41530531

国家自然科学基金项目 41475096

国家自然科学基金项目 41505061

详细信息

作者简介:
胡泊, 男, 1990年出生, 博士研究生, 主要从事气候学研究。E-mail:383876027@qq.com

通讯作者:
王晓娟, E-mail:mouse0903@126.com

中图分类号: P461
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2016-12-21
- 网络出版日期: 2017-06-15
- 刊出日期: 2018-01-15

A Study on Characteristics of Precipitation and Circulation Pattern in Early Summer, Midsummer and Conventional Summer in Northeast Asia

Po HU^1
,,
Hongyan SHEN¹,
Xiaojuan WANG^{3
, ,},
Guolin FENG^{1, 2, 4}

1.
College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000
2.
Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081
3.
College of Physical and Electronic Project, Changshu Institute of Technology, Changshu, Jiangsu 215500
4.
College of Physical Science and Technology, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, Jiangsu 225002

Funds:

China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund GYHY201306021

National Natural Science Foundation of China 41575082

National Natural Science Foundation of China 41530531

National Natural Science Foundation of China 41475096

National Natural Science Foundation of China 41505061

摘要

摘要: 本文利用1979~2015年GPCP（Global Precipitation Climatology Project）逐月降水资料，采用经验正交函数（EOF）分解和Morlet小波分析方法，对东北亚地区初夏、盛夏和传统夏季降水的时空分布特征以及环流型开展了系统性的研究，揭示了东北亚地区传统夏季降水表现为盛夏降水贡献占主导，其年际和年代际特征以及环流特征同盛夏降水特征相一致，而初夏降水和盛夏降水特征及形成机制则具有显著差异。空间分布上，初夏的降水EOF第一模态表现为“+－+”的三极型分布，而盛夏和传统夏季则表现为南北相反的偶极型特征；时间演变方面，初夏降水表现为5~6 a振荡周期，盛夏为2~3 a为主的振荡周期，传统夏季则兼具上述两类振荡周期；在年代际调整方面，在1990年代末，盛夏降水和传统夏季降水在华北和东北地区发生了显著的年代际转折。此外，分析降水与环流的联系发现：初夏，由于西太平洋上空异常反气旋将西太平洋等地的水汽向北方地区输送，且受欧亚Ⅱ型（EUII）遥相关的作用，东北亚地区初夏降水异常具有明显纬向特征。盛夏，东北亚地区降水主要受到西太平洋副热带高压西伸北进、孟加拉湾和南海等地水汽加强的影响。欧亚Ⅰ型（EUI）遥相关和亚洲太平洋型（EAP）遥相关与我国东北以西和沿海地区的降水具有显著相关性。EU型遥相关的作用使东北亚夏季降水的异常中心存在西北—东南向的波列特征，EAP型遥相关的作用则使夏季降水存在经向三极型或偶极型特征。
- 降水异常 /
- 东北亚地区 /
- 遥相关型 /
- 环流
Abstract: Based on monthly Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data from 1079 to 2015, temporal and spatial characteristics of precipitation and circulation patterns in early summer, midsummer and conventional summer in Northeast Asia are systematically investigated using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis and Morlet wavelet methods.Results indicate that the conventional summer precipitation is dominated by midsummer precipitation.The interannual and interdecadal circulation variations are consistent with the characteristics of midsummer precipitation, while the mechanisms for early summer and midsummer precipitation are significantly different.Looking at the spatial distribution of precipitation, it is found that the first leading mode of early summer precipitation exhibits a "+-+" tripole pattern along the meridional direction, while an opposite pattern is found in the first leading modes of midsummer and conventional summer precipitation.Early summer precipitation demonstrates a 5-6-a period and midsummer precipitation shows a 2-3-a period.In the late 1990s, midsummer precipitation and conventional summer precipitation experienced a significant decadal change in North China and Northeast China.Further analysis indicates that early summer precipitation anomalies are mainly zonally distributed, which is partly attributed to the water vapor transport to Northeast Asia by anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the Western Pacific and partly attributed to the effects of the Eurasian Ⅱ teleconnection (EUII).In midsummer, precipitation is mainly affected by the northward extension of western Pacific subtropical high and the strengthening of water vapor transport from the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea.Eurasia Ⅰ (EUI) teleconnection pattern and East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection pattern both are significantly correlated with midsummer precipitation in western China and the coastal area of China.Summer precipitation anomalies extend from northwest to southeast due to the effects of EUII teleconnection pattern.The effect of EAP teleconnection pattern leads to the tripole or dipole patterns of summer precipitation distribution along the meridional direction.
- Precipitation anomaly /
- Northern Asia region /
- Teleconnection pattern /
- Circulation

HTML全文

图 1 1981~2010年东北亚地区逐月降水直方图

Figure 1. Monthly precipitation histogram in Northeast Asia for 1981–2010

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图 2 1979~2015年东北亚地区（a）初夏（ESPI）、盛夏（MSPI）和传统夏季（TSPI）标准化降水量和（b）标准化降水量的累积距平曲线

Figure 2. (a) Standardized precipitation in early summer (ESPI), midsummer (MSPI), and conventional summer (TSPI) and (b) cumulative anomaly curves of standardized precipitation in Northeast Asia for 1979–2015

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图 3 1979~2015东北亚地区散点图分布：（a）初夏和盛夏；（b）初夏和传统夏季；（c）盛夏和传统夏季

Figure 3. Scatter plots of (a) early summer and midsummer precipitation, (b) early summer and conventional summer precipitation, (c) midsummer and conventional summer precipitation in Northeast Asia for 1979–2015

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图 4 1979~2015年东北亚地区（a、b）初夏、（c、d）盛夏以及（e、f）传统夏季降水EOF分析第一主模态（第一行）和第二主模态（第二行）的空间分布图

Figure 4. Spatial patterns of the EOF1 modes (first row) and EOF2 modes (second row) of (a, b) early summer, (c, d) midsummer, and (e, f) conventional summer precipitation in Northeast Asia for 1979–2015

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图 5 1979~2015年东北亚地区（a、b）初夏、（c、d）盛夏以及（e、f）传统夏季降水EOF分析第一主分量（第一行）和第二主分量（第二行）的时间系数（绿线表示9年滑动平均）

Figure 5. Time coefficients of the EOF1 modes (first row) and EOF2 modes (second row) of (a, b) early summer, (c, d) midsummer and (e, f) conventional summer precipitation in Northeast Asia for 1979–2015. The green line denotes the nine-year moving average of precipitation

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图 6 1979~2015年东北亚地区（a、b）初夏、（c、d）盛夏以及（e、f）传统夏季降水EOF分析第一主分量（第一行）和第二主分量（第二行）时间系数的小波分析图

Figure 6. Morlet wavelet transform power spectra for the time series of the EOF1 modes (first row) and EOF2 modes (second row) of (a, b) early summer, (c, d) midsummer and (e, f) conventional summer precipitation in Northeast Asia for 1979–2015

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图 7 东北亚地区（a、d）初夏、（b、e）盛夏和（c、f）传统夏季降水距平百分率在降水偏多（第一行）和偏少年（第一行）合成图

Figure 7. Composite distributions of precipitation anomaly percentages in (a, d) early summer, (b, e) midsummer, and(c, f) conventional summer in Northeast Asia. (a, b, c) are for years of positive precipitation anomalies and (d, e, f) are for years of negative precipitation anomalies

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图 8 东北亚地区（a）初夏、（b）盛夏和（c）传统夏季降水MTT突变检验空间分布

Figure 8. Spatial distributions of moving t-test(MTT) of (a) early summer, (b) midsummer, and (c) conventional summer precipitation in Northeast Asia

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图 9 显著区域（a）初夏、（b）盛夏和（c）传统夏季降水距平时间序列（单位：mm）

Figure 9. Time series of (a) early summer, (b) midsummer, and (c) conventional summer precipitation anomalies in the significance region (units: mm)

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图 10 东北亚地区（a）初夏、（b）盛夏和（c）传统夏季总降水量标准化时间序列对500 hPa高度场的回归系数分布。绿色实线代表 500 hPa位势高度5880 gpm线；图中阴影由浅到深依次表示通过0.10、0.05和0.01的显著性水平检验

Figure 10. The spatial distribution of 500-hPa geopotential height that is regressed by the standardized precipitation in (a) early summer, (b) midsummer, and (c) conventional summer in Northeast Asia. The green line represents the 5880 geopotential meter geopotential height contour at 500 hPa; the shaded areas from shallow to deep denote the values pass test at 0.10, 0.05, 0.01 significance levels

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图 11 东北亚地区降水量标准化时间序列对850 hPa风场的回归系数分布：（a）初夏；（b）盛夏与初夏差值；（c）传统夏季与初夏差值。阴影由浅到深依次表示通过0.1、0.05和0.01的显著性水平检验

Figure 11. The spatial distribution of 850-hPa wind field that is regressed by the standardized precipitation in Northeast Asia: (a) Early summer, (b) the difference between midsummer and early summer, (c) the difference between conventional summer and early summer. The shaded areas from shallow to deep denote the values pass test at 0.10, 0.05, 0.01 significance levels

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图 12 东北亚地区降水量标准化时间序列对可降水量的回归系数分布：（a）初夏；（b）盛夏与初夏差值；（c）传统夏季与初夏差值。阴影由浅到深依次表示通过0.1、0.05和0.01的显著性水平检验

Figure 12. The spatial distribution of precipitable water that is regressed by the standardized precipitation in Northeast Asia : (a) Early summer, (b) the difference between midsummer and early summer, (c) the difference between conventional summer and early summer. The shaded areas from shallow to deep denote the values pass test at 0.10, 0.05, 0.01 significance levels

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图 13 （a、b、c）EAP指数、（d、e、f）EUI指数和（g、h、i）EUII指数与东北亚初夏（左列）、盛夏（中间列）以及传统夏季（右列）格点降水的相关系数

Figure 13. Correlation coefficients between indices of (a, b, c) EAP, (d, e, f) EUI, (g, h, i) EUII and the precipitation in early summer (left column), middle summer (middle column), conventional summer (right column) in Northeast Asia

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表 1 1979~2015年东北亚地区初夏、盛夏和传统夏季降水量EOF分析异常主模态时间序列的相关系数

Table 1. Correlation coefficients between time series of anomalous principal EOF modes of precipitation in early summer, midsummer, and conventional summer in Northeast Asia for 1979–2015

		异常主模态时间序列的相关系数
		初夏降水		传统夏季降水
		PC1	PC2	PC1	PC2
盛夏降水	PC1	-0.04	-0.03	-0.83^**	-0.28
盛夏降水	PC2	0.01	-0.15	-0.09	0.43^**
传统夏季降水	PC1	-0.39^*	-0.16	_	_
传统夏季降水	PC2	0.48^**	-0.44^**	_	_
表示通过0.05的显著性水平检验。 *表示通过0.01的显著性水平检验。

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 1979~2015年东北亚地区初夏、盛夏和传统夏季降水异常年份

Table 2. Years of precipitation anomalies in early summer, midsummer, and conventional summer inNortheast Asiafor 1979–2015

	偏多年	严重偏多年	偏少年	严重偏少年
初夏降水	1983、1995、1998、2008、2011、2012、2014、2015	1998、2012、2014、2015	1981、1982、1986、1987、1992、1997、2000、2001、2002、2007	1987、2007
盛夏降水	1982、1987、1993、1998、2003	1982、1987、1993、1998	1986、1994、2001、2005、2008、2015	1994、2001
传统夏季降水	1983、1987、1993、1998、2003、2012	1993、1998	1986、1994、1997、2001、2004、2007、2008	1994、2001、2004、2007

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 东北亚地区初夏、盛夏和传统夏季降水分别与EAP指数、EUI指数、EUII指数的相关系数

Table 3. Correlation coefficients between indices of EAP, EUI and EUII and early summer, middle summer, and conventional summer precipitation in Northeast Asia

	EAP指数	EUI指数	EUII指数
初夏降水	0.24	0.20	0.32*
盛夏降水	0.37*	0.47*	0.08
传统夏季降水	0.50*	0.49*	0.29
*表示通过0.05的显著性水平检验。

下载: 导出CSV

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