冬季中国东北极端低温事件环流背景特征分析

李尚锋; 姜大膀; 廉毅; 尹路婷

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1710.17119

冬季中国东北极端低温事件环流背景特征分析

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1710.17119

李尚锋^{1, 2, 4,},
姜大膀^{1, 4, ,},
廉毅²,
尹路婷³

1.
中国科学院大气物理研究所, 北京 100029
2.
吉林省气象科学研究所长白山气象与气候变化吉林省重点实验室/中高纬度环流系统与东亚季风研究开放实验室, 长春 130062
3.
吉林省气象服务中心, 长春 130062
4.
中国科学院大学, 北京 100049

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目 41421004

国家自然科学基金项目 41630424

详细信息

作者简介:
李尚锋, 男, 1981年出生, 博士, 主要从事极端天气和气候变化方面的研究。E-mail:ice-lsf@163.com

通讯作者:
姜大膀, E-mail:jiangdb@mail.iap.ac.cn

中图分类号: P467
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2017-02-06
- 网络出版日期: 2017-10-17
- 刊出日期: 2018-09-15

Circulation Characteristics of Extreme Cold Events in Northeast China during Wintertime

Shangfeng LI^{1, 2, 4
,},
Dabang JIANG^{1, 4
, ,},
Yi LIAN²,
Luting Yin³

1.
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
2.
Jilin Provincial Key Laboratory of Changbai Mountain Meteorology & Climate Change/Laboratory of Research for Middle-High Latitude Circulation Systems and East Asian Monsoon, Institute of Meteorological Sciences of Jilin Province, Changchun 130062
3.
Jilin Meteorological Service Center, Changchun 130062
4.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049

Funds:

National Natural Science Foundation of China 41421004

National Natural Science Foundation of China 41630424

摘要

摘要: 利用1961~2014年CN05.2逐日温度数据，对冬季东北极端低温事件进行了定义，并按其发生时冷空气对中国东部（105°E以东）的影响范围，将其分为第一类和第二类极端低温事件，其中前者局限在东北，而后者则扩展至中国东部大部分地区。分析表明，在年代际时间尺度上，第一类极端低温事件强度减弱，而第二类的则增加；对持续天数而言，第二类极端低温事件的在减少，而第一类在1990年代以前也持续减少，但是1990年代之后急剧增加；2月份总的极端低温事件发生天数最多，其在1990年代以前要远大于12月和1月份，且在1990年代以前总体在减少，以后则增加；850 hPa风场分析显示，第二类极端低温事件中来自贝加尔湖的西北路径冷空气比第一类的要强，而来自鄂霍次克海的东北路径冷空气则相反；在300 hPa的E-P通量散度场上，这两类极端低温事件中东北都处于波动能量辐散中心，第二类极端低温事件发生时罗斯贝波波动能量传播比第一类时的要弱，第一类发生时则纬向传播比较明显，而且波动中心值都比较大；在位势高度距平场的谐波分析中，长波槽同位相扰动叠加在超长波槽上更易导致极端低温事件的发生。
- 极端低温事件 /
- 中国东北 /
- 冬季 /
- 罗斯贝波 /
- 谐波分析
Abstract: Using the CN05.2 dataset of daily mean temperature for the period from 1961 to 2014, total extreme cold events (TECEs) are determined in the present study. These TECEs are classified into two categories according to the domain they affected in eastern China (East of 105°E in China), i.e., the first category of extreme cold events (FCECEs) that only affected Northeast China and the second category of extreme cold events (SCECEs) includes those that affected most of eastern China. Results show that the trend of intensity of FCECEs is significantly negative, but the opposite is true for that of SCECEs on the interdecadal timescale. As for the occurrence frequency, the trend for SCECEs is obviously negative, and that for FCECEs is also negative during the pre-1990s epoch but becomes positive after the 1990s. The occurrence frequency of TECEs is the highest in February among the winter months, and it tends to decrease during the pre-1990s epoch but increases after the 1990s. Northwesterly winds (cold air surges from Lake Baikal) at 850 hPa during SCECEs is stronger than that during FCECEs, and the opposite is true for northeasterly winds (cold air surges from the Okhotsk Sea). Analysis of the E-P flux and divergence field at 300 hPa indicates that significant wave-like anomalies appear across Northeast China during both SCECEs and FCECEs, and the Rossby wave energy propagation is weaker during SCECEs than during FCECEs. Harmonic analysis shows that the overlap of longwave trough and ultra-longwave geopotential height anomaly in the same phase can more easily lead to extreme cold event.
- Extreme cold events /
- Northeast China /
- Winter /
- Rossby wave /
- Harmonic analysis

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图 1 1961~2014年冬季极端低温事件发生频次（单位：次）的空间分布特征：（a）第一类；（b）第二类

Figure 1. Spatial distribution characteristics of occurrence frequency of extreme cold events during 1961–2014: (a) The first category of extreme cold events (FCECEs); (b) the second category of extreme cold events (SCECEs)

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图 2 冬季东北极端低温事件峰值强度（单位：℃）和发生天数（单位：d）十年际变化：（a）第一类；（b）第二类；（c）总的极端低温事件

Figure 2. Decadal variations of peak intensity (units: ℃) and occurrence days (units: d) for (a) FCECEs, (b) SCECEs, and (c) total extreme cold events (TECEs) in winter

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图 3 冬季总的极端低温事件、第一类和第二类发生天数的十年际变化（单位：d）

Figure 3. Decadal variations of occurrence days (units: d) for TECEs, FCECEs, and SCECEs in winter

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图 4 冬季各月总的极端低温事件发生天数的十年际变化（单位：d）

Figure 4. Decadal variations of occurrence days (units: d) for TECEs in December, January, and February

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图 5 1961~2014年根据CN05.2数据所得的冬季月平均温度标准差（单位：℃）：（a）12月；（b）1月；（c）2月

Figure 5. Standard deviations of monthly mean temperature (units: ℃) from CN05.2 data in (a) December, (b) January, and (c) February of 1961–2014

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图 6 冬季各月第一和第二类极端低温事件发生天数的十年际变化（单位：d）：（a）12月；（b）1月；（c）2月

Figure 6. Decadal variations of occurrence days for FCECEs and SCECEs in (a) December, (b) January, and (c) February (units: d)

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图 7 1961~2014年冬季极端低温事件的850 hPa风场（单位：m s⁻¹）合成图：（a，c，e）第一类初始日期、峰值日期、整个时段；（b，d，f）第二类初始日期、峰值日期、整个时间段；（g）第二类与第一类整个时段之差。灰色阴影表示为通过95%的置信水平的区域，图中方框区代表东北

Figure 7. Composite distributions of winds (units: m s⁻¹) at 850 hPa for extreme cold events during 1961–2014: (a, c, e) The beginning day, the peak day, and the whole period for FCECEs; (b, d, f) the beginning day, the peak day, and the whole period for SCECEs; (g) difference between SCECEs and FCECEs (SCECEs minus FCECEs) during the whole period. Light shadings indicate significance at the 95% confidence level based on two-tailed Student's t test; the black rectangle indicates Northeast China (NEC)

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图 8 1961~2014年冬季极端低温事件的500 hPa位势高度距平（等值线间隔：20，单位：gpm）合成图：（a，b，c）第一类初始日期、峰值日期、整个时段；（d，e，f）第二类初始日期、峰值日期、整个时间段；（g）第二类与第一类整个时段之差。灰色阴影表示为通过95%的置信水平的区域，图中方框区表示东北

Figure 8. Distributions of composite geopotential height anomalies (contour interval: 20, units: gpm) at 500 hPa for extreme cold events during 1961-2014: (a, b, c) The beginning day, the peak day, and the whole period for FCECEs; (d, e, f) the beginning day, the peak day, and the whole period for SCECEs; (g) difference between SCECEs and FCECEs (SCECEs minus FCECEs) during the whole period. Light shading indicates significance at the 95% confidence level based on two-tailed Student's t-test; the black rectangle indicates NEC

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图 9 1961~2014年冬季极端低温事件时300 hPa的E-P通量（箭头，单位：m² s^-2）、散度（阴影，单位：10^-5 m s^-2）及流函数场（等值线，单位：106 m² s^-1）合成图：（a，c，e）第一类初始日期、峰值日期、整个时段；（b，d，f）第二类初始日期、峰值日期、整个时间段；（g）第二类与第一类整个时段之差。图中方框区表示东北

Figure 9. Distributions of composite E-P flux (vectors, units: m² s^-2), its divergence (shaded, units: 10^-5 m s^-2) and stream function (contours, units: 10⁶ m² s^-1) at 300 hPa for extreme cold events during 1961–2014: (a, c, e) The beginning day, the peak day, and the whole period for FCECEs; (b, d, f) the beginning day, the peak day, and the whole period for SCECEs; (g) SCECEs minus FCECEs during the whole period. The black rectangle indicates NEC

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图 10 1961~2014年冬季极端低温事件发生时的500 hPa位势高度距平谐波合成场（等值线间隔：10，单位：gpm）：（a）第一类和（b）第二类超长波；（d）第一类和（e）第二类长波；第二类与第一类（c）超长波和（f）长波之差。灰色阴影表示为通过95%的置信水平的区域，图中方框区表示东北

Figure 10. Distributions of harmonic analysis of composite geopotential height anomalies (contour interval: 10, units: gpm) at 500 hPa for extreme cold events during 1961–2014: (a, b) Ultra-longwave for FCECEs and SCECEs; (d, e) longwave for FCECEs and SCECEs; (c, f) differences in ultra-longwave and longwave between SCECEs and FCECEs (SCECEs minus FCECEs). Light shadings indicate the 95% confidence level based on two-tailed Student's t test, and the black rectangle indicates NEC

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表 1 1961~2014年46次冬季极端低温事件的开始日期、持续时间、峰值日期、峰值强度和类型

Table 1. Beginning dates, durations, peak dates, peak intensities, and types of 46 total extreme cold events (TECEs) in winter during 1961–2014

序号	开始日期	持续时间/d	峰值日期	峰值强度/℃	类型
1	1964-02-11	3	1964-02-11	-8.8	第二类
2	1964-02-19	5	1964-02-22	-8.1	第二类
3	1966-01-18	3	1966-01-18	-8.8	第一类
4	1966-12-21	6	1966-12-25	-8.9	第二类
5	1967-02-09	5	1967-02-11	-8.5	第二类
6	1967-12-06	3	1967-12-07	-9.5	第一类
7	1967-12-26	4	1967-12-28	-9.2	第二类
8	1968-01-29	3	1968-01-30	-8.2	第一类
9	1968-02-19	3	1968-02-19	-7.4	第二类
10	1969-01-27	5	1969-01-29	-8.5	第二类
11	1969-02-01	5	1969-02-05	-8.3	第一类
12	1969-02-13	3	1969-02-15	-10.0	第一类
13	1969-02-18	11	1969-02-21	-12.9	第二类
14	1970-01-01	4	1970-01-03	-10.5	第一类
15	1970-02-21	3	1970-02-22	-8.4	第一类
16	1971-02-26	3	1971-02-27	-11.4	第一类
17	1974-01-27	3	1974-01-28	-7.1	第一类
18	1974-02-24	3	1974-02-25	-8.1	第二类
19	1976-12-25	4	1976-12-26	-10.7	第二类
20	1976-12-30	5	1977-01-02	-9.7	第二类
21	1977-01-26	6	1977-01-30	-10.0	第二类
22	1977-02-12	5	1977-02-14	-10.0	第一类
23	1978-02-10	7	1978-02-13	-9.0	第二类
24	1979-01-30	3	1979-01-31	-10.1	第二类
25	1980-02-05	3	1980-02-06	-8.5	第二类
26	1980-12-27	3	1980-12-27	-6.6	第一类
27	1981-02-24	4	1981-02-25	-10.7	第二类
28	1983-02-10	5	1983-02-12	-9.8	第一类
29	1983-02-18	3	1983-02-19	-6.9	第一类
30	1984-02-02	5	1984-02-06	-8.3	第二类
31	1985-02-16	5	1985-02-17	-6.9	第二类
32	1985-12-06	6	1985-12-08	-10.9	第二类
33	1987-01-09	5	1987-01-12	-8.0	第一类
34	1990-01-21	7	1990-01-25	-10.0	第一类
35	1991-02-21	3	1991-02-22	-9.0	第一类
36	1998-12-01	3	1998-12-02	-8.7	第一类
37	2000-12-23	4	2000-12-25	-8.2	第一类
38	2001-01-10	7	2001-01-11	-9.5	第一类
39	2001-02-02	6	2001-02-06	-8.9	第一类
40	2001-02-10	4	2001-02-11	-8.1	第一类
41	2002-12-08	3	2002-12-09	-7.7	第一类
42	2004-12-21	3	2004-12-21	-7.1	第一类
43	2010-12-13	3	2010-12-14	-6.5	第一类
44	2012-12-06	3	2012-12-07	-7.6	第一类
45	2012-12-23	3	2012-12-23	-9.4	第一类
46	2013-01-07	4	2013-01-08	-7.8	第一类

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