On the Characteristics, Driving Forces and Inter-decadal Variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon
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摘要: 本文是以新的资料和研究结果对东亚夏季风的基本特征、驱动力和年代际变化所作的重新分析与评估。内容包括四个部分：（1）东亚夏季风的基本特征；（2）东亚夏季风的驱动力；（3）东亚夏季风的年代际变率与原因；（4）东亚夏季风与全球季风的关系。结果表明：东亚夏季风是亚洲夏季风的一个重要有机部分，主要由来源于热带的季风气流组成，并随季节由南向北呈阶段性推进，它是形成夏季东亚天气与气候的主要环流和降水系统。驱动夏季风的主要强迫有三部分：外部强迫、耦合强迫与内部变率，其中人类活动引起的外强迫（气候变暖、城市化、气溶胶增加等）是新出现的外强迫，它正不断改变着东亚夏季风的特征与演变趋势。海洋与陆面耦合强迫作为自然因子是引起东亚夏季风年际和年代际变化的主要原因，其中太平洋年代尺度振荡（PDO）与北大西洋多年代尺度振荡（AMO）的协同作用是造成东亚夏季风30~40年周期振荡的主要原因。1960年代以后，东亚夏季风经历了强—弱—强的年代际变化，相应的中国东部夏季降水型出现了“北多南少”向“南涝北旱”以及“北方渐增”的转变。最近的研究表明，上述东亚夏季风年代际变化与整个亚非夏季风系统的变化趋势是一致的。在本世纪主要受气候变暖的影响，夏季风雨带将持续北移，中国北方和西部地区出现持续性多雨的格局。最后本文指出，亚非夏季风系统相比于其他区域季风系统更适合全球季风的概念。Abstract: The present paper has reanalyzed and reassessed the basic characteristics, the driving forces and the inter-decadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon with new-inputs of data and research findings. It includes four parts:(1) the basic characteristic features and properties of the East Asian summer monsoon; (2) the driving forces of the East Asian summer monsoon; (3) the inter-decadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon, and (4) the association of the East Asian monsoon with the global monsoon. The results obtained here have shown that the East Asian summer monsoon is an important and integrated part of the Asian summer monsoon system, with the monsoonal airflow of tropical origin. It is the main circulation and precipitation system in summer to shape the weather and climate in East Asia. The main forces that drive the East Asian summer monsoon consist of three kinds:external forcing, coupled forcing and internal variability. Among them, the anthropogenic external forcing (e.g., greenhouse gas, urbanization effect, and aerosols), which is an emerging driving force, is changing the properties and evolution trend of the East Asian summer monsoon. As a nature factor, the coupled forcing of oceanic and land-surface processes is the main cause of the inter-decadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon. The coordinated effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) is the dominant forcing for the 30-40 year period. Since the 1960s, the East Asian summer monsoon has experienced a strong-weak-strong inter-decadal scale evolution, along with the PDO and AMO. Correspondingly, the precipitation pattern in East China has also shifted from the "North flooding and South drought" pattern to the "North drought and South flooding" pattern with increasing precipitation in North China in the recent decade. Actually, this inter-decadal variation is consistent with the change of the Afro-Asian summer monsoon system. In the present century, influenced by increasing climate warming, the summer monsoon precipitation belt will continue to advance northward, and therefore northern and western China will have persistent above-normal precipitation scenarios. Finally, it is indicated that the Afro-Asian summer monsoon is well corresponding to the concept of the global monsoon compared to other regional monsoons worldwide.
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图 1 1981~2010年气候平均的（a）夏季（6~8月）和（b）冬季（11月至次年2月）850 hPa风场分布（单位：m s-1）。空白区表示高度超过1500 m
Figure 1. Climatologically averaged (1981-2010) wind field distributions at 850 hPa in (a) summer (June to August) and (b) winter (December to February) (units: m s-1). The clear areas denote regions with elevation above 1500 m
图 2 1981~2010年气候平均的（a）夏季（6~8月）和（b）冬季（11月至次年2月）整层积分（1000~300 hPa）的水汽输送通量分布（单位：kg m−1 s−1），阴影已表示100 kg m−1 s−1以上
Figure 2. Climatologically averaged (1981−2010) vertically integrated moisture transport flux (units: kg m−1 s−1) distributions from 1000 hPa to 300 hPa in (a) summer (June to August) and (b) winter (December to February). The areas with moisture transport above 100 kg m−1 s−1 are shaded
图 3 1981~2010年气候平均的（a）夏季（6~8月）和（b）冬季（12月至次年2月）200 hPa纬向风的气候态分布（单位：m s−1），阴影区表示20 m s−1以上风速
Figure 3. Climatologically averaged (1981–2010) zonal wind distributions at 200 hPa in (a) summer (June to August) and (b) winter (December to February) (units: m s−1). The areas with the wind speed above 20 m s−1 are shaded
图 4 1981~2010年气候平均的东亚地区（105°–120°E）（a）4月和（b）6月纬向风的纬度—高度剖面（单位：m s−1）
Figure 4. Latitude–height cross sections of climatologically averaged (1981–2010) zonal wind in (a) April and (b) June over East Asia (along 105°–120°E) (units: m s−1)
图 5 1981~2010年气候平均的东亚地区（105°~120°E）夏季风经圈垂直环流
Figure 5. Climatologically averaged (1981–2010) meridional-vertical circulation of summer monsoon over East Asia (along105°–120°E)
图 6 1981~2010年气候平均的5~9月东亚地区（105°~120°E）（a）850 hPa风场（单位：m s−1）、（b）200 hPa风场（单位：m s−1，阴影区表示西风）及（c）整层积分水汽输送通量（单位：kg m-1 s−1）的纬度—时间剖面
Figure 6. Latitude–time cross sections (along 105°–120°E) of climatologically averaged (1981–2010) (a) 850 hPa wind field (units: m s−1), (b) 200 hPa wind field (units: m s−1, the shaded areas denote the westerlies) and (c) vertically integrated moisture transport fluxes (units: kg m-1 s−1) over East Asia
图 7 1981~2010年气候平均的3月至11月（a）南亚地区和（b）东亚地区日平均降水量的纬度—时间剖面（单位：mm）。阴影区表示日降水量在6 mm以上；南亚地区：70°~80°E；东亚地区：105°~120°E
Figure 7. Latitude–time cross sections of climatologically averaged (1981–2010) daily mean precipitation over (a) South Asia and (b) East Asia during March to November (units: mm). The regions with precipitation amount above 6 mm are shaded; South Asia: 70°–80°E; East Asia: 105°–120°E
图 8 1981~2010年气候平均的沿117.5°E的梅雨锋垂直结构。黄色实线是等$ {\theta _{{\rm{se}}}}$线（单位：K）；蓝色虚线是等比湿线（单位：kg kg−1）；底端水平红色粗实线代表梅雨区南北范围
Figure 8. Climatologically averaged (1981−2010) Meiyu frontal vertical structure along 117.5°E. The yellow solid lines are isolines of potential pseudo-temperature ($ {\theta _{{\rm{se}}}}$, units: K), and blue dashed lines are isolines of specific humidity (units: kg kg−1). The horizontal bar at the bottom represents the latitudinal range of Meiyu area
图 9 1981~2010年气候平均的5~9月东亚地区（105°~120°E），850 hPa $ {\theta _{{\rm{se}}}}$纬度—时间剖面（单位：K），阴影区表示$ {\theta _{{\rm{se}}}}$≥340 K
Figure 9. Latitude–time cross section of climatologically averaged (1981–2010) potential pseudo-temperature ($ {\theta _{{\rm{se}}}}$) at 850 hPa over East Asia (along 105°– 120°E) during May to September (units: K). The regions with $ {\theta _{{\rm{se}}}}$ greater than or equal to 340 K are shaded
图 10 1948~2017年东亚夏季风强度指数的变化，蓝色线为气候平均值。[根据Zhang et al.（1996）的定义]
Figure 10. East Asian summer monsoon intensity index from1948 to 2017. The blue curve denotes the climatological value. [Estimated by the method proposed by Zhang et al. (1996)]
图 11 多种资料计算得到的1948~2016年东亚夏季风强度指数的变化：（a）NCEP/NCAR再分析资料；（b）Hadley中心；（c）NCEP/DOE再分析资料；（d）ERA-Interim再分析资料。[根据施能等（1996）的定义]
Figure 11. East Asian summer monsoon intensity index from1948 to 2016 estimated by different datasets: (a) NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data; (b) Hadley Center data; (c) NCEP/DOE reanalysis data; (d) ERA-Interim reanalysis data. [Estimated by the method of Shi et al. (1996)]
图 12 1961~2015年中国东部（105°~120°E）年代际滤波后夏季降水（单位：mm d-1）标准化值的纬度—时间剖面
Figure 12. Latitude–time cross section of the decadal-filtered and normalized summer rainfall (unites: mm d-1) in East China along 105°–120°E during 1961–2015
图 13 1961~2015年中国（a）华南、（b）长江中下游、（c）华北和（d）东北地区夏季降水量（单位：mm）的演变。粗实线为年代际滤波值
Figure 13. Summer rainfall (units: mm) over (a) South China, (b) the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, (c) North China, and (d) Northeast China during 1961 to 2015. Solid curves denote decadal-filtered values in these regions
图 14 1961~2015年东亚夏季风区（20°~40°N，105°~130°E）观测的降水量经验正交分解（EOF）的主模态和时间系数：（a，b）第一模态；（c，d）第二模态；（e，f）第三模态。图中红实线为时间系数的5年滑动平均值
Figure 14. Leading modes and time series of observed precipitation over the East Asian monsoon region (20°–40°N, 105°–130°E) via empirical orthogonal decomposition method: (a, b) The first mode; (c, d) the second mode; (e, f) the third mode. Red curves represent 5-year smoothed time series
图 15 1901~2014年亚非夏季风区降水量EOF（a）第一模态（填色代表降水对时间系数的回归分布，单位：mm d-1），（b）对应的标准化时间系数PC1（灰色实线代表标准化时间系数的11年滑动平均）。
Figure 15. Spatial pattern of (a) the first EOF mode of monthly mean precipitation during 1901–2014 (shadings indicate regression coefficients of time series against precipitation; units: mm d-1) and (b) its normalized time coefficient (PC1). The gray line shows the 11-point smoothing of the normalized PC.
图 16 东亚夏季风区多模式模拟集合平均的降水异常时间序列（单位：mm d-1），相对参考时段为1971~2000年平均，基于CMIP5多模式逐月输出资料。灰实线：历史气候模拟试验（Historical），24个模式，1901~2005年；绿实线：未来低辐射强迫情景试验（RCP2.6），20个模式，2006~2099年；蓝实线：未来中等偏低辐射强迫情景试验（RCP4.5），24个模式，2006~2099年；红实线：未来高辐射强迫情景试验（RCP8.5），24个模式，2006~2099年
Figure 16. Multi-model ensemble mean of precipitation anomalies (units: mm d-1) based on CMIP5 multi-model monthly outputs and with respect to the reference period over 1971–2000. Gray curve: Historical simulation, 24 models, 1901–2005; green curve: RCP2.6 scenario, 20 models, 2006–2099; blue curve: RCP4.5 scenario, 24 models, 2006–2099; red curve: RCP8.5 scenario, 24 models, 2006–2099
图 17 （a）太平洋年代尺度振荡（PDO）和（b）北大西洋多年代尺度振荡（AMO）指数长期演变，填色粗实线为年代际滤波值
Figure 17. (a) The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index and (b) the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) index, heavy solid curves denote decadal-filtered values
图 18 1880~2011年我国夏季降水年代际分量EOF分解得到的前两个模态的时间系数（蓝线）和PDO、AMO指数（红线）
Figure 18. (a) The first component (PC1, blue curve) of an EOF analysis of the decadal-filtered summer (JJA) rainfall in East Asia compared to the decadal-filtered spring (MAM) PDO index (red curve) for 1880–2011. (b) Same as (a) but for PC2 (blue curve) and the AMO index (red curve). The PC1 and PC2 values are scaled to facilitate comparison with the PDO and AMO, respectively
图 19 PDO指数回归的（a）1880~1959年期间和（b）1960~2011年期间850 hPa风场（箭头）及其散度场（阴影，单位：106 s−1）分布。A和C分别表示异常反气旋和气旋中心
Figure 19. Regression of the summer (JJA) 850-hPa wind (vectors, units: m s−1) and divergence field (shading, units: 106 s−1) on the PDO index during (a) 1880–1959 and (b) 1960–2011. The letters A and C denote an anomalous anticyclone and cyclone, respectively.
图 20 1960~2015年青藏高原72站平均的（a）冬季及（b）春季积雪深度序列（单位：cm d-1），黑色直线为气候平均值
Figure 20. Time series of (a) winter and (b) spring snow depth (units: cm d-1) over the Tibetan Plateau, averaged for the 72 stations from 1960 to 2015. The horizontal solid lines indicate averaged values
图 21 青藏高原72站平均的（a）冬季、（b）春季和（c）夏季感热通量变化（单位：W m-2），蓝色线为9点滑动值
Figure 21. Seasonal-mean sensible heat fluxes (units:W m-2) over the Tibetan Plateau averaged for the 72 stations for (a) winter, (b) spring, and (c) summer. The blue curves indicate 9-year running averages
图 22 青藏高原72站平均的冬季积雪深度序列与东亚夏季降水量的相关：（a）1978~1999年；（b）2000~2011年。阴影区为通过90%信度检验的区域
Figure 22. Correlations between the winter snow depth over the Tibetan Plateau averaged for the 72 stations and the observed summer precipitation over East Asia for the periods (a) 1979–1999 and (b) 2000–2011. Shaded areas are statistically significant at the 90% confidence level
表 1 中国东部各区域夏季降水距平的周期分析
Table 1. Primary periods of summer rainfalls in each sub-region of eastern China
周期/a 华南 2*，7，30* 长江中下游 2*，7，14，40* 华北 3*，9，18 长江5站 2，7*，12，40* *表示通过95%的信度检验 
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