FGOALS耦合模式两个版本的海洋热吸收与气候敏感度的关系研究

李伊吟; 智海; 林鹏飞; 刘海龙; 于溢

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1801.17194

FGOALS耦合模式两个版本的海洋热吸收与气候敏感度的关系研究

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1801.17194

李伊吟^1,,
智海¹,
林鹏飞^{2, 3, ,},
刘海龙^{2, 3},
于溢⁴

1.
南京信息工程大学大气科学学院, 南京 210044
2.
中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室, 北京 100029
3.
中国科学院大学地球科学学院, 北京 100049
4.
国家海洋局第二海洋研究所卫星海洋环境动力学国家重点实验室, 杭州 310012

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目 41376019

国家自然科学基金项目 41376039

国家自然科学基金项目 41376026

中国科学院战略性先导科技专项"热带西太平洋海洋系统物质能量交换及其影响" XDA11010304

详细信息

作者简介:
李伊吟, 女, 1992年出生, 硕士研究生, 主要从事气候敏感度和气候变化评估工作。E-mail:liyiyin12@163.com

通讯作者:
林鹏飞, E-mail:linpf@mail.iap.ac.cn

中图分类号: P467
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出版历程
- 刊出日期: 2018-11-15

Relationship between Ocean Heat Uptake and Climate Sensitivity in the Two Versions of FGOALS

Yiyin LI^1
,,
Hai ZHI¹,
Pengfei LIN^{2, 3
, ,},
Hailong LIU^{2, 3},
Yi YU⁴

1.
College of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044
2.
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
3.
College of Earth Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049
4.
State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Second Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration(SOA), Hangzhou 310012

Funds:

National Natural Science Foundation of China 41376019

National Natural Science Foundation of China 41376039

National Natural Science Foundation of China 41376026

Strategic Priority Research Program Entitled 'Western Pacific Ocean System: Structure, Dynamics and Consequences' of the Chinese Academy of Sciences XDA11010304

摘要

摘要: 海洋在气候变暖过程中的重要性通常用海洋热吸收来衡量，热吸收的大小影响全球变暖的幅度。本文利用FGOALS-g2、FGOALS-s2（以下分别缩写为g2、s2）两个耦合模式的CO₂浓度以每年1%速率增长（1pctCO₂）试验，评估和分析海洋热吸收与气候敏感度的关系。结果表明：进入海洋净热通量（s2模式大于g2模式）会使得s2模式的海洋热吸收总体比g2模式大；更为重要的是，由于s2模式中的海洋热吸收主要集中在上层，使得耦合模式s2中的瞬态气候响应（TCR，或称气候敏感度）比g2大。当CO₂浓度加倍时，在两个耦合模式中，海洋热吸收的空间分布呈现显著性的差异，s2模式中上层热吸收明显比深层大，上层热吸收主要位于太平洋和印度洋，而g2模式中上层和深层热吸收差别较小，深层主要位于大西洋和北冰洋。进一步研究表明，海洋热吸收分布特征与两个耦合模式海洋环流变化有关。在g2模式中北大西洋经圈翻转环流（AMOC）强度强且深度大，在CO₂浓度加倍时，AMOC减弱小，这样AMOC可将热量带到海洋的深层，增加海洋深层热吸收。而在s2模式中，平均AMOC弱且浅，在CO₂浓度加倍时，AMOC减弱明显，热量不易到达深层，主要集中在海洋上层，对气候敏感度影响更快且更强。海洋环流导致热吸收及其空间差异同时影响到气候敏感度的差异。因此，探讨海洋热吸收与气候敏感度之间的关系，利于明确气候敏感度不确定性的来源。
- 海洋热吸收 /
- 气候敏感度 /
- 经圈翻转环流
Abstract: OHU (Ocean Heat Uptake) can affect the magnitude of global warming rate and is an important way to measure global warming. By utilizing the experiments of 1% per year increase of CO₂ concentration simulated by two coupled models FGOALS-g2 and FGOALS-s2 (hereafter abbreviated g2 and s2), this study assesses and analyses the relationship between OHU and climate sensitivity. The result shows that TCR (transient climate response, i.e., climate sensitivity) in s2 is larger than that in g2, which is mainly related to larger OHU accumulation in the upper ocean, as the larger net heat flux into the ocean in s2 (compared to g2) results in larger OHU as a whole in s2 than in g2. When CO₂ is doubled, there are significant differences in spatial distribution of OHU in the two coupled models. The OHU in the upper ocean is significantly larger than that in the deep ocean in s2. In s2, the OHU in the upper ocean is mainly located in the Indian-Pacific Ocean. Different from s2, the OHU difference between the upper ocean and deep ocean is small in g2. The OHU in the deep ocean is mainly located in the Atlantic-Arctic Ocean. Furthermore, the OHU distribution is related to the change in the ocean meridional overturning circulation. The AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) in g2 is stronger and deeper than that in s2 in the piControl (Pre-industrial Control) experiment. Meanwhile, the change in the AMOC is relatively small when CO₂ is doubled in g2. These changes can bring more heat into the deep ocean and result in increases of OHU in the deep ocean. The averaged AMOC in s2 is weak and shallow in the piControl experiment and weakens significantly when CO₂ is doubled. The absorbed heat is retained mainly in the upper ocean, which exerts rapid and strong impacts on the climate sensitivity. Therefore, the OHU change and its spatial distribution induced by ocean circulation affect the climate sensitivity. For this reason, the study of the relationship between OHU and climate sensitivity can help clarifying the uncertainty sources of climate sensitivity.
- Ocean heat uptake /
- Climate sensitivity /
- Meridional overturning circulation

HTML全文

图 1 全球平均的（a）表面气温（实线，单位：K）及海表面温度（点线，单位：K）、（b）整层海温（单位：K）、（c）海洋热吸收（单位：10⁹ J m^-2）相对于多年平均的piControl试验的差值随时间变化曲线。（d）全球平均的海表净热通量（单位：W m^-2，五点滑动平均）随时间的变化曲线。红色（蓝色）代表g2（s2）模式模拟值，黑色实线代表 1919年，灰色区域代表计算CO₂浓度加倍时段范围（1910~1929年）

Figure 1. Temporal evolutions of global mean (a) surface air temperature (SAT, solid lines, units: K) and sea surface temperature (SST) changes (dotted lines, units: K), (b) full-depth ocean temperature changes (FDOT, units: K), (c) ocean heat uptake changes (OHU, units: 10⁹ J m^-2). Changes are relative to mean values in the piControl (Pre-industrial Control) experiment. (d) Temporal evolutions of sea surface net heat fluxes (5-yr running means, units: W m^-2). The red (blue) lines indicate FGOALS-g2 (FGOALS-s2) simulation results. The position of black solid line indicates the year of 1919, the gray area indicates the period (1910–1929) when CO₂ is doubled

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图 2 CO₂浓度加倍时全球表面气温平均值（单位：K）相对于多年平均的piControl试验变化的空间分布（左）及纬向平均（右）：（a）g2；（b）s2

Figure 2. Spatial patterns of mean global surface air temperature changes (units: K, left column) and zonal mean values (right column) relative to piControl experiment when CO₂ is doubled: (a) FGOALS-g2; (b) FGOALS-s2

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图 3 g2、s2模式模拟的海温纬向平均（单位：K）：（a、b）多年平均的piControl试验；（c、d）CO₂浓度加倍时相对于多年平均piControl试验的差值

Figure 3. Zonal mean ocean temperature (units: K) simulated by FGOALS-g2 and FGOALS-s2, respectively: (a, b) Multi-year mean values in the piControl experiment; (c, d) changes relative to multi-year mean values in the piControl experiment when CO₂ is doubled

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图 4 CO₂浓度加倍时g2、s2模式模拟的全球海洋热吸收平均值（单位：10⁹ J m^-2）在不同深度的空间分布：（a、b）整层海洋；（c、d）300 m以上的海洋；（e、f）300 m以下的海洋

Figure 4. Distributions of mean global ocean heat uptake (units: 10⁹ J m^-2) at different depths simulated by the FGOALS-g2 and FGOALS-s2 when CO₂ is doubled: (a, b) The whole water column; (c, d) above 300 m; (e, f) below 300 m

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图 5 CO₂浓度加倍时海洋热吸收（单位：10²³ J）在不同深度及不同海盆（全球、大西洋—北冰洋、太平洋－印度洋、南大洋）的空间分布：（a）整层海洋；（b）300 m以上的海洋；（c）300 m以下的海洋。红色（蓝色）代表g2（s2）模式

Figure 5. Distributions of ocean heat uptake (OHU, units: 10²³ J) in different depths and basins (Global, Atlantic–Arctic Ocean, Pacific–Indian Ocean, Southern Ocean) when CO₂ is doubled: (a) The whole water column; (b) above 300 m; (c) below 300 m. The red (blue) bars indicating FGOALS-g2 (FGOALS-s2)

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图 6 g2、s2模式模拟的北大西洋经圈翻转环流（AMOC，单位：Sv）：（a、b）多年平均的piControl试验；（c、d）CO₂浓度加倍时相对于多年平均piControl试验的差值

Figure 6. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC, units: Sv) simulated by the FGOALS-g2 and FGOALS-s2: (a, b) Multi-year mean values in the piControl experiment; (c, d) changes relative to Multi-year mean in the piControl experiment when CO₂ is doubled

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