Drying Trend in Northern China and Its Shift during 1951-2016
-
摘要: 过去半个世纪,中国经历了北方的"西湿东干"和东部的"南涝北旱"的降水分布格局。近十几年来,这种降水长期变化的分布格局是维持还是发生了变化?针对这个问题,本文基于年降水观测数据、自矫正的帕尔默干旱指数scPDSI、地表湿润指数SWI及GRACE(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment)卫星数据反演的陆地水储量(TWS)对中国区域干旱化问题进行了再分析。结果表明,近16年(2001~2016年),中国东部地区(100°E以东)"南涝北旱"的格局正在发生显著的变化,长江上中游及江淮流域已转为显著的干旱化趋势,而华北地区的降水已转为增加趋势,东部"南旱北涝"的格局基本形成;北方过去的"西湿东干"也转变为"西干东湿"的空间分布特征。显然,中国区域的降水格局在2001年后发生了明显的年代尺度转折性变化,两种常用干旱指数scPDSI和SWI的分析也证明了这一点。但GRACE的陆地水储量(TWS)的分析却显示,最近16年来,中国东部"南涝北旱"的格局仍未发生变化,北方大部分地区仍然处于干旱化的时段,且有加剧的趋势,其原因有待于进一步研究。
-
关键词:
- 降水 /
- 干旱化 /
- 陆地水储量(TWS) /
- 南涝北旱 /
- 转折性变化
Abstract: There are significant changes in precipitation over China under global warming. During 1951-2000, the precipitation experienced a period when its spatial distribution showed a pattern of 'western wetting and eastern drying, WWED'in northern part of China and 'southern flooding and northern drought, SFND' in eastern part of China. Does this distribution pattern of long-term precipitation change still maintain or change after 2001? Based on observations of monthly mean temperature, monthly mean precipitation, and calculated self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) and surface wetness index (SWI), the drying trend in China has been revisited. Results show that the wet-dry spatial distribution in China has been changing significantly after 2001. Over northern China, the pattern of WWED switched to 'western drying and eastern wetting, WDEW'; over eastern China, the pattern of SFND changed to 'southern drought and northern flooding, SDNF' during 2001 to 2016. In central part of northern China, precipitation trend switched from a decreasing trend to a significant increasing trend; precipitation in the upper and middle reaches of Yangtze River experienced a shift from significant increasing trend to a decreasing trend. However, according to the analysis of Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) data of The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), the wet-dry pattern of SFND over eastern China has not changed during 2001-2016, and the drying trend in northern China has been intensifying since 2001. This is opposite to the results shown in precipitation. The reason will be studied in the future.-
Key words:
- Drought index /
- Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) /
- Southern flooding and northern drying /
- Trend /
-
图 1 1901~2016年PDO指数的变化,其中粗实线为9年滑动平均(数据来自http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt [ 2018-01-13])
Figure 1. The PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) index with a 9-year running average (think solid line) from 1901 to 2016 (data from http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt [ 2018-01-13])
图 2 (a、d)1951~2000年、(b、e)2001~2016年和(c、f)1951~2016年不同时段中国区域年降水的线性变化趋势:(a–c)基于CMA数据计算;(b–f)基于CRU数据计算。黑点以及阴影区域表示该站点及该区域的趋势通过95%的信度检验;红色表示降水减少趋势,绿色表示增加趋势
Figure 2. Linear trends of annual precipitation over China in (a, d) 1951–2000, (b, e) 2001–2016, and (c, f) 1951–2016 time periods: (a–c) CMA data; (d–f) CRU data. The black dots and dotted areas indicate the 95% confidence level
图 3 (a、d)1951~2000年、(b、e)2001~2016年和(c、f)1951~2016年不同时段中自矫正帕尔默干旱指数scPDSI(第一行)和地表湿润指数SWI(第二行)变化趋势。黑点以及阴影区域表示该站点及该区域的趋势通过95%的信度检验;“∆”为未通过显著性检验的站;红色表示干旱化趋势,绿色表示湿化
Figure 3. Linear trends of scPDSI [Self-calibrating PDSI (Palmer Drought Severity Index), top row] and SWI (Surface Wetness Index, bottom row) over China in (a, d) 1951–2000, (b, e) 2001–2016, and (c, f) 1951–2016 time periods. The black dots and dotted areas indicate the 95% confidence level. Blue triangles indicate stations with insignificant trends. The red colour indicates drought trends, the green colour indicates wetness trends
图 4 基于EEMD方法得到的(a)东北、(b)华北、(c)西北东部和(d)西北西部区域平均年降水的年代际变化特征。L1:年代际尺度的周期变化;L2:周期变化与趋势项的合成;L3:趋势项
Figure 4. Interdecadal variations of regionally averaged precipitation over (a) Northeast China, (b) North China, (c) eastern Northwest China, and (d) western Northwest China using EEMD (Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition) method. L1: interdecadal variation; L2: interdecadal variations plus trend; L3: trend
表 1 三个时段不同区域发生干旱化面积的统计
Table 1. Percentages of drying areas in different regions during three time periods
干旱化面积百分比 全国 东部 西部 北方 南方 1951~2000年 38% (25%) 61% (41%) 5% (1%) 44% (31%) 31% (17%) 2001~2015年 49% (31%) 35% (18%) 70% (50%) 33% (15%) 70% (51%) 1951~2016年 48% (34%) 75% (54%) 7% (3%) 52% (41%) 42% (23%) 注:面积百分比为占所在区域的面积百分比;括号里的是达到95%信度检验的面积比。 表 2 东北、华北、西北东部和西北西部区域平均年降水的不同年代尺度分量的周期及方差贡献比
Table 2. Periods and variance contribution of various decadal time-scale components for regionally-averaged precipitation over Northeast China, North China, eastern and western Northwest China
周期/a(方差贡献比) IMF4 IMF5 趋势项 IMF4+IMF5 东北 32.2(76%) 64.6(1%) –(23%) –(77%) 华北 25.7(31%) 63.4(40%) –(29%) –(71%) 西北东部 24.7(58%) 64.1(40%) –(2%) –(98%) 西北西部 37.0(6.5%) 67.3(0.5%) –(93%) –(7%) 注:括号外的数字是周期,“–”表示无数值;括号内的数字为该周期的方差贡献比。 -
[1] Adam D. 2002. Gravity measurement:Amazing grace[J]. Nature, 416 (6876):10-11, doi: 10.1038/416010a. [2] Ahmed M, Sultan M, Wahr J, et al. 2014. The use of GRACE data to monitor natural and anthropogenic induced variations in water availability across Africa[J]. Earth-Science Reviews, 136:289-300, doi: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2014.05.009. [3] Chen Y, Velicogna I, Famiglietti J S, et al. 2013. Satellite observations of terrestrial water storage provide early warning information about drought and fire season severity in the Amazon[J]. J. Geophys. Res., 118 (2):495-504, doi: 10.1002/jgrg.20046. [4] Chou C, Neelin J D, Chen C A, et al. 2009. Evaluating the Rich-Get-Richer mechanism in tropical precipitation change under global warming[J]. J. Climate, 22 (8):1982-2005, doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2471.1. [5] Dai Aiguo. 2011a. Characteristics and trends in various forms of the Palmer Drought Severity Index during 1900-2008[J]. J. Geophys. Res., 116 (D12):D12115, doi: 10.1029/2010JD015541. [6] Dai Aiguo. 2011b. Drought under global warming:A review[J]. WIREs, 2 (1):45-65, doi: 10.1002/wcc.81. [7] Dai Aiguo. 2013. Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models[J]. Nature Climate Change, 3 (1):52-58, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1633. [8] Famiglietti J S, Rodell M. 2013. Water in the balance[J]. Science, 340 (6138):1300-1301, doi: 10.1126/science.1236460. [9] 符淙斌, 安芷生. 2002.我国北方干旱化研究——面向国家需求的全球变化科学问题[J].地学前缘, 9 (2):271-275. http://www.oalib.com/paper/1695550 [10] Fu Congbin, An Zhisheng. 2002. Study of aridification in northern China-A global change issue facing directly the demand of nation[J]. Earth Science Frontiers (in Chinese), 9 (2):271-275, doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1005-2321.2002.02.004. [11] 符淙斌, 温刚. 2002.中国北方干旱化的几个问题[J].气候与环境研究, 7 (1):22-29. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK200804004.htm [12] Fu Congbin, Wen Gang. 2002. Several issues on aridification in the northern China[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 7 (1):22-29, doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2002.01.03. [13] 符淙斌, 马柱国. 2008.全球变化与区域干旱化[J].大气科学, 32 (4):752-760. http://www.dqkxqk.ac.cn/dqkx/dqkx/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?flag=1&file_no=20080405&journal_id=dqkx [14] Fu Congbin, Ma Zhuguo. 2008. Global change and regional aridification[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 32 (4):752-760, doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2008.04.05. [15] 符淙斌, 延晓冬, 郭维栋. 2006.北方干旱化与人类适应[J].自然科学进展, 16 (10):1216-1223. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1002-008X.2006.10.003 [16] Fu Congbin, Yan Xiaodong, Guo Weidong. 2006. The aridification in northern China and human adaptation[J]. Progress in Natural Science (in Chinese), 16 (10):1216-1223, doi:10. 3321/j.issn:1002-008X.2006.10.003. [17] Greve P, Orlowsky B, Mueller B, et al. 2014. Global assessment of trends in wetting and drying over land[J]. Nat. Geosci., 7 (10):716-721, doi:10. 1038/ngeo2247. [18] Held I M, Soden B J. 2006. Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming[J]. J. Climate, 19 (21):5686-5699, doi: 10.1175/JCLI3990.1. [19] 华丽娟, 马柱国. 2009.亚洲和北美干湿变化及其与海表温度异常的关系[J].地球物理学报, 52 (5):1184-1196. http://www.cqvip.com/QK/94718X/200905/30466108.html [20] Hua Lijuan, Ma Zhuguo. 2009. The evolution of dry and wet periods in Asia and North America and its relationship with SSTA[J]. Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 52 (5):1184-1196, doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2009.05.007. [21] Huang J P, Yu H P, Guan X D, et al. 2016. Accelerated dryland expansion under climate change[J]. Nature Climate Chang, 6 (2):166-171, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2837. [22] 黄荣辉, 徐予红, 周连童. 1999.我国夏季降水的年代际变化及华北干旱化趋势[J].高原气象, 18 (4):465-476. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GYQX199904000.htm [23] Huang Ronghui, Xu Yuhong, Zhou Liantong. 1999. The interdecadal variation of summer precipitations in China and the drought trend in North China[J]. Plateau Meteorology (in Chinese), 18 (4):465-476, doi:10.3321/j.issn:1000-0534. 1999.04.001. [24] Hulme M, Marsh R, Jones P D. 1992. Global changes in a humidity index between 1931-60 and 1961-90[J]. Climate Res., 2:1-22, doi: 10.3354/cr002001. [25] 姜大膀, 王会军. 2005. 20世纪后期东亚夏季风年代际减弱的自然属性[J].科学通报, 50 (20):2256-2262. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0023-074X.2005.20.013 [26] Jiang Dabang, Wang Huijun. 2005. Natural interdecadal weakening of East Asian summer monsoon in the late 20th century[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 50 (17):1923-1929, doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0023-074X.2005.20.013. [27] 姜江, 姜大膀, 林一骅. 2017.中国干湿区变化与预估[J].大气科学, 41 (1):43-56. http://www.dqkxqk.ac.cn/dqkx/dqkx/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?flag=1&file_no=20170104&journal_id=dqkx [28] Jiang Jiang, Jiang Dabang, Lin Yihua. 2017. Changes and projection of dry/wet areas over China[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 41 (1):43-56, doi:10.3878/j.issn. 1006-9895.1604.15223. [29] 李庆祥, 刘小宁, 李小泉. 2002.近半世纪华北干旱化趋势研究[J].自然灾害学报, 11 (3):50-56. http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=zrzhxb200203009 [30] Li Qingxiang, Liu Xiaoning, Li Xiaoquan. 2002. Drought trend in North China in recent half century[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters (in Chinese), 11 (3):50-56, doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-4574.2002.03.009. [31] 李新周, 马柱国, 刘晓东. 2006.中国北方干旱化年代际特征与大气环流的关系[J].大气科学, 30 (2):277-284. http://www.dqkxqk.ac.cn/dqkx/dqkx/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?flag=1&file_no=20060210&journal_id=dqkx [32] Li Xinzhou, Ma Zhuguo, Liu Xiaodong. 2006. Inter-decadal characteristics of aridification over northern China associated with the variation of atmospheric circulation during the past 50 years[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 30 (2):277-284, doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2006.02.10. [33] Liu Chunlei, Allan R P. 2013. Observed and simulated precipitation responses in wet and dry regions 1850-2100[J]. Environ. Res. Lett., 8 (3):034002, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034002. [34] Long Di, Scanlon B R, Longuevergne L, et al. 2013. GRACE satellite monitoring of large depletion in water storage in response to the 2011 drought in Texas[J]. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40 (13):3395-3401, doi:10. 1002/grl.50655. [35] 马柱国. 2005.我国北方干湿演变规律及其与区域增暖的可能联系[J].地球物理学报, 48 (5):1011-1018. http://www.oalib.com/paper/4871830 [36] Ma Zhuguo. 2005. Dry/wet variation and its relationship with regional warming in arid-regions of northern China[J]. Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 48 (5):1011-1018, doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0001-5733.2005.05.006. [37] Ma Zhuguo. 2007. The interdecadal trend and shift of dry/wet over the central part of North China and their relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 52 (15):2130-2139, doi: 10.1007/s11434-007-0284-z. [38] 马柱国, 符淙斌. 2001.中国北方干旱区地表湿润状况的趋势分析[J].气象学报, 59 (6):737-746. doi: 10.11676/qxxb2001.077 [39] Ma Zhuguo, Fu Congbin. 2001. Trend of surface humid index in the arid area of northern China[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica (in Chinese), 59 (6):737-746, doi: 10.11676/qxxb2001.077. [40] Ma Zhuguo, Fu Congbin. 2003. Interannual characteristics of the surface hydrological variables over the arid and semi-arid areas of northern China[J]. Global and Planetary Change, 37 (3-4):189-200, doi: 10.1016/S0921-8181(02)00203-5. [41] 马柱国, 符淙斌. 2005.中国干旱和半干旱带的10年际演变特征[J].地球物理学报, 48 (3):519-525. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KXTB200620017.htm [42] Ma Zhuguo, Fu Congbin. 2005. Decadal variations of arid and semi-arid boundary in China[J]. Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 48 (3):519-525, doi:10.3321/j.issn:0001-5733. 2005.03.008. [43] Ma Zhuguo, Fu Congbin. 2006. Some evidence of drying trend over northern China from 1951 to 2004[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 51 (23):2913-2925, doi: 10.1007/s11434-006-2159-0. [44] 马柱国, 邵丽娟. 2006.中国北方近百年干湿变化与太平洋年代际振荡的关系[J].大气科学, 30 (3):464-474. http://www.dqkxqk.ac.cn/dqkx/dqkx/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?flag=1&file_no=20060310&journal_id=dqkx [45] Ma Zhuguo, Shao Lijuan. 2006. Relationship between dry/wet variation and the Pacific decade oscillation (PDO) in northern China during the last 100 years[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 30 (3):464-474, doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2006.03.10. [46] Ma Zhuguo, Fu Congbin. 2007. Global aridification in the second half of the 20th century and its relationship to large-scale climate background[J]. Sci. China Ser. D Earth Sci., 50 (5):776-788, doi: 10.1007/s11430-007-0036-6. [47] 马柱国, 任小波. 2007. 1951-2006年中国区域干旱化特征[J].气候变化研究进展, 3 (4):195-201. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KXTB200620017.htm [48] Ma Zhuguo, Ren Xiaobo. 2007. Drying trend over China from 1951 to 2006[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research (in Chinese), 3 (4):195-201, doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2007.04.002. [49] 马柱国, 黄刚, 甘文强, 等. 2005.近代中国北方干湿变化趋势的多时段特征[J].大气科学, 29 (5):671-681. http://www.dqkxqk.ac.cn/dqkx/dqkx/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?flag=1&file_no=20050501&journal_id=dqkx [50] Ma Zhuguo, Huang Gang, Gan Wenqiang, et al. 2005. Multi-scale temporal characteristics of the dryness/wetness over northern China during the last century[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 29 (5):671-681, doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2005.05.01. [51] Seager R, Vecchi G A. 2010. Greenhouse warming and the 21st century hydroclimate of southwestern North America[J]. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 107 (50):21277-21282, doi: 10.1073/pnas.0910856107. [52] Sheffield J, Wood E F, Roderick M L. 2012. Little change in global drought over the past 60 years[J]. Nature, 491 (7424):435-438, doi: 10.1038/nature11575. [53] Swenson S C, Milly P C D. 2006. Climate model biases in seasonality of continental water storage revealed by satellite gravimetry[J]. Water Resour. Res., 42 (3):W03201, doi: 10.1029/2005WR004628. [54] 魏凤英, 曹鸿兴. 1998.华北干旱异常的地域特征[J].应用气象学报, 9 (2):205-212. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DLXB2003S1006.htm [55] Wei Fengying, Cao Hongxing. 1998. Regional characteristics of drought anomalies in North China[J]. Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology (in Chinese), 9 (2):205-212. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Huaijun_Wang/publication/273313856_Characteristics_of_drought_in_the_arid_region_of_northwestern_China/links/55c8116108aeca747d66861a.pdf?origin=publication_detail [56] Wells N, Goddard S, Hayes M J. 2004. A self-calibrating palmer drought severity index[J]. J. Climate, 17 (12):2335-2351, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2335:ASPDSI>2.0.CO; 2. [57] Wu Zhaohua, Huang N E, Long S R, et al. 2007. On the trend, detrending, and variability of nonlinear and nonstationary time series[J]. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 104 (38):14889-14894, doi: 10.1073/pnas.0701020104. [58] Wu Zhaohua, Huang N E. 2009. Ensemble empirical mode decomposition:A noise-assisted data analysis method[J]. Adv. Adapt. Data Anal., 1 (1):1-41, doi: 10.1142/S1793536909000047. [59] 严中伟, 季劲钧, 叶笃正. 1990. 60年代北半球夏季气候跃变——Ⅰ.降水和温度变化[J].中国科学B辑, (1):97-103. http://www.oalib.com/references/16498872 [60] Yan Zhongwei, Ji Jinjun, Ye Duzheng. 1990. Northern Hemispheric summer climatic jump in the 1960s (Ⅰ)-Rainfall and temperature[J]. Science in China Series B, (1):1092-1101. http://kns.cnki.net/KCMS/detail/detail.aspx?filename=jbxg199009009&dbname=CJFD&dbcode=CJFQ [61] Yang Qing, Ma Zhuguo, Fan Xingang, et al. 2017a. Decadal modulation of precipitation patterns over eastern China by sea surface temperature anomalies[J]. J. Climate, 30 (17):7017-7033, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-s0793.1. [62] Yang Qing, Li Mingxing, Zheng Ziyan, et al. 2017b. Regional applicability of seven meteorological drought indices in China[J]. Science China Earth Sciences, 60 (4):745-760, doi: 10.1007/s11430-016-5133-5. [63] 杨修群, 谢倩, 朱益民, 等. 2005.华北降水年代际变化特征及相关的海气异常型[J].地球物理学报, 48 (4):789-797. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQWX200504008.htm [64] Yang Xiuqun, Xie Qian, Zhu Yimin, et al. 2005. Decadal-to-interdecadal variability of precipitation in North China and associated atmospheric and oceanic anomaly patterns[J]. Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 48 (4):789-797, doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0001-5733.2005.04.009. [65] 张庆云, 卫捷, 陶诗言. 2003.近50年华北干旱的年代际和年际变化及大气环流特征[J].气候与环境研究, 8 (3):307-318. http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=qhyhjyj200303005 [66] Zhang Qingyun, Wei Jie, Tao Shiyan. 2003. The decadal and interannual variations of drought in the northern China and association with the circulations[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 8 (3):307-318, doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-9585.2003.03.005. -