关于我国北方干旱化及其转折性变化

马柱国; 符淙斌; 杨庆; 郑子彦; 吕美霞; 李明星; 段亚雯; 陈亮

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1802.18110

关于我国北方干旱化及其转折性变化

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1802.18110

马柱国^{1, 2,},
符淙斌^{1, 2, 3},
杨庆¹,
郑子彦¹,
吕美霞¹,
李明星¹,
段亚雯^{1, 2},
陈亮¹

1.
中国科学院大气物理研究所中国科学院东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室, 北京 100029
2.
中国科学院大学, 北京 100049
3.
南京大学, 南京 210023

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目 2016YFA0600400

国家自然科学基金项目 41530532

国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）项目 2012CB956200

详细信息

作者简介:
马柱国, 男, 1963年出生, 博士, 研究员, 主要从事区域气候变化的研究。E-mail:mazg@tea.ac.cn

中图分类号: P467
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2018-01-18
- 网络出版日期: 2018-03-13
- 刊出日期: 2018-07-15

Drying Trend in Northern China and Its Shift during 1951-2016

Zhuguo MA^{1, 2
,},
Congbin FU^{1, 2, 3},
Qing YANG¹,
Ziyan ZHENG¹,
Meixia LÜ¹,
Mingxing LI¹,
Yawen DUAN^{1, 2},
Liang CHEN¹

1.
Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia(RCE-TEA), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
2.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049
3.
Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023

Funds:

National Key Research and Development Program of China 2016YFA0600400

National Natural Science Foundation of China 41530532

National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) 2012CB956200

摘要

摘要: 过去半个世纪，中国经历了北方的"西湿东干"和东部的"南涝北旱"的降水分布格局。近十几年来，这种降水长期变化的分布格局是维持还是发生了变化?针对这个问题，本文基于年降水观测数据、自矫正的帕尔默干旱指数scPDSI、地表湿润指数SWI及GRACE（Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment）卫星数据反演的陆地水储量（TWS）对中国区域干旱化问题进行了再分析。结果表明，近16年（2001~2016年），中国东部地区（100°E以东）"南涝北旱"的格局正在发生显著的变化，长江上中游及江淮流域已转为显著的干旱化趋势，而华北地区的降水已转为增加趋势，东部"南旱北涝"的格局基本形成；北方过去的"西湿东干"也转变为"西干东湿"的空间分布特征。显然，中国区域的降水格局在2001年后发生了明显的年代尺度转折性变化，两种常用干旱指数scPDSI和SWI的分析也证明了这一点。但GRACE的陆地水储量（TWS）的分析却显示，最近16年来，中国东部"南涝北旱"的格局仍未发生变化，北方大部分地区仍然处于干旱化的时段，且有加剧的趋势，其原因有待于进一步研究。
- 降水 /
- 干旱化 /
- 陆地水储量(TWS) /
- 南涝北旱 /
- 转折性变化
Abstract: There are significant changes in precipitation over China under global warming. During 1951-2000, the precipitation experienced a period when its spatial distribution showed a pattern of 'western wetting and eastern drying, WWED'in northern part of China and 'southern flooding and northern drought, SFND' in eastern part of China. Does this distribution pattern of long-term precipitation change still maintain or change after 2001? Based on observations of monthly mean temperature, monthly mean precipitation, and calculated self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) and surface wetness index (SWI), the drying trend in China has been revisited. Results show that the wet-dry spatial distribution in China has been changing significantly after 2001. Over northern China, the pattern of WWED switched to 'western drying and eastern wetting, WDEW'; over eastern China, the pattern of SFND changed to 'southern drought and northern flooding, SDNF' during 2001 to 2016. In central part of northern China, precipitation trend switched from a decreasing trend to a significant increasing trend; precipitation in the upper and middle reaches of Yangtze River experienced a shift from significant increasing trend to a decreasing trend. However, according to the analysis of Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) data of The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), the wet-dry pattern of SFND over eastern China has not changed during 2001-2016, and the drying trend in northern China has been intensifying since 2001. This is opposite to the results shown in precipitation. The reason will be studied in the future.
- Drought index /
- Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) /
- Southern flooding and northern drying /
- Trend /

HTML全文

图 1 1901~2016年PDO指数的变化，其中粗实线为9年滑动平均（数据来自http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt [ 2018-01-13]）

Figure 1. The PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) index with a 9-year running average (think solid line) from 1901 to 2016 (data from http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt [ 2018-01-13])

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 （a、d）1951~2000年、（b、e）2001~2016年和（c、f）1951~2016年不同时段中国区域年降水的线性变化趋势：（a–c）基于CMA数据计算；（b–f）基于CRU数据计算。黑点以及阴影区域表示该站点及该区域的趋势通过95%的信度检验；红色表示降水减少趋势，绿色表示增加趋势

Figure 2. Linear trends of annual precipitation over China in (a, d) 1951–2000, (b, e) 2001–2016, and (c, f) 1951–2016 time periods: (a–c) CMA data; (d–f) CRU data. The black dots and dotted areas indicate the 95% confidence level

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图 3 （a、d）1951~2000年、（b、e）2001~2016年和（c、f）1951~2016年不同时段中自矫正帕尔默干旱指数scPDSI（第一行）和地表湿润指数SWI（第二行）变化趋势。黑点以及阴影区域表示该站点及该区域的趋势通过95%的信度检验；“∆”为未通过显著性检验的站；红色表示干旱化趋势，绿色表示湿化

Figure 3. Linear trends of scPDSI [Self-calibrating PDSI (Palmer Drought Severity Index), top row] and SWI (Surface Wetness Index, bottom row) over China in (a, d) 1951–2000, (b, e) 2001–2016, and (c, f) 1951–2016 time periods. The black dots and dotted areas indicate the 95% confidence level. Blue triangles indicate stations with insignificant trends. The red colour indicates drought trends, the green colour indicates wetness trends

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图 4 基于EEMD方法得到的（a）东北、（b）华北、（c）西北东部和（d）西北西部区域平均年降水的年代际变化特征。L1：年代际尺度的周期变化；L2：周期变化与趋势项的合成；L3：趋势项

Figure 4. Interdecadal variations of regionally averaged precipitation over (a) Northeast China, (b) North China, (c) eastern Northwest China, and (d) western Northwest China using EEMD (Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition) method. L1: interdecadal variation; L2: interdecadal variations plus trend; L3: trend

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图 5 2002~2016年中国地区GRACE卫星数据的陆地水储量TWS线性趋势（单位：mm a⁻¹）的空间分布。红色区域为TWS减少趋势，蓝色区域为TWS增加趋势

Figure 5. Linear trend of terrestrial water storage (TWS, units: mm a⁻¹) from GRACE satellite data over China from 2002 to 2016. The red zone assumes the reduced tendency, the blue zone assumes increased tendency

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 三个时段不同区域发生干旱化面积的统计

Table 1. Percentages of drying areas in different regions during three time periods

	干旱化面积百分比
	全国	东部	西部	北方	南方
1951~2000年	38% (25%)	61% (41%)	5% (1%)	44% (31%)	31% (17%)
2001~2015年	49% (31%)	35% (18%)	70% (50%)	33% (15%)	70% (51%)
1951~2016年	48% (34%)	75% (54%)	7% (3%)	52% (41%)	42% (23%)
注：面积百分比为占所在区域的面积百分比；括号里的是达到95%信度检验的面积比。

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表 2 东北、华北、西北东部和西北西部区域平均年降水的不同年代尺度分量的周期及方差贡献比

Table 2. Periods and variance contribution of various decadal time-scale components for regionally-averaged precipitation over Northeast China, North China, eastern and western Northwest China

	周期/a（方差贡献比）
	IMF4	IMF5	趋势项	IMF4+IMF5
东北	32.2（76%）	64.6（1%）	–（23%）	–（77%）
华北	25.7（31%）	63.4（40%）	–（29%）	–（71%）
西北东部	24.7（58%）	64.1（40%）	–（2%）	–（98%）
西北西部	37.0（6.5%）	67.3（0.5%）	–（93%）	–（7%）
注：括号外的数字是周期，“–”表示无数值；括号内的数字为该周期的方差贡献比。

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