1961～2016年中国春季极端低温事件的时空特征分析

艾雅雯; 孙建奇; 韩双泽; 张梦琪; 华维

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1912.19223

1961～2016年中国春季极端低温事件的时空特征分析

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1912.19223

艾雅雯^1,,
孙建奇^2, ,,
韩双泽²,
张梦琪²,
华维^{1, 2}

1.
成都信息工程大学大气科学学院，成都 610225
2.
中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢—南森国际研究中心，北京 100029

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目41825010，国家重点研发计划2016YFA0600701

详细信息

作者简介:
艾雅雯，女，1994年出生，硕士研究生，主要从事极端气候方面的研究。E-mail: 2903757775@qq.com

通讯作者:
孙建奇，E-mail: sunjq@mail.iap.ac.cn

中图分类号: P467
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2019-09-30
- 网络出版日期: 2020-03-17
- 刊出日期: 2020-11-20

Spatial and Temporal Features of Spring Extreme Low Temperature Events in China during 1961–2016

Yawen AI^1
,,
Jianqi SUN^{2
, ,},
Shuangze HAN²,
Mengqi ZHANG²,
Wei HUA^{1, 2}

1.
School of Atmosphere Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225
2.
Nansen–Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029

Funds: National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 41825010), National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant 2016YFA0600701)

摘要

摘要: 利用1961～2016年中国529个台站逐日最低气温资料，研究了中国春季极端低温事件的时空变异特征。旋转经验正交分解结果显示，中国春季极端低温事件的频次在空间上可以分为5个区域，即东北—华北东部地区、江南地区、西北东部—华北西部地区、西南地区和新疆北部地区。小波分析表明，这5个区域春季极端低温事件的频次在年际尺度上呈现出2～4年的振荡周期，其中江南地区、西北东部—华北西部地区和新疆北部地区2～4年的振荡周期在整个研究时段都显著，但东北—华北东部地区和西南地区2～4年的显著周期分别出现在20世纪80年代之前和80年代到90年代中期。在长期变化上，这5个区域春季极端低温事件的频次总体均呈减少趋势，但突变年份具有明显差异。Mann-Kendall和滑动t检验结果表明，东北—华北东部地区春季极端低温事件频次的突变时间为1987/1988年、江南地区为1995/1996年、西北东部—华北西部地区为1990/1991年、西南地区为1987/1988年、新疆北部地区为1997/1998年。伴随着春季极端低温事件频次的降低，5个区域春季极端低温事件的强度在过去半个多世纪也呈现出显著的下降趋势。但近10年来，中国东部地区春季极端低温事件的频次和强度却有所增加，需要引起关注。
- 春季极端低温事件 /
- 频次 /
- 强度
Abstract: Based on daily minimum temperature data from 529 stations in China for the period 1961–2016, in this study, we investigated the spatio-temporal features of spring extreme low temperature (ELT) events. The results of our rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis indicates that, with respect to the variability of the spring ELT events frequency, China can be divided into five regions, including Northeast China–eastern North China, the Jiangnan region, eastern Northwest China–western North China, Southwest China, and northern Xinjiang. The results of our Morlet wavelet analysis indicate that the spring ELT events frequencies over the five regions exhibit a 2–4-year quasi-periodicity. This 2–4-year quasi-periodicity is significant over the whole period for the Jiangnan region, eastern Northwest China–western North China, and northern Xinjiang; over the period prior to the early 1980s for Northeast China–eastern North China; and over the period between early 1980s and mid-1990s for Southwest China. With respect to long-term variation, the spring ELT events frequencies over all five regions exhibit decreasing trends, although the years of their abrupt change differ. The results of our Mann–Kendall analysis and moving t-test suggest that the abrupt change in the spring ELT events frequency occurred in 1987/1988 for Northeast China–eastern North China, 1995/1996 for the Jiangnan region, 1990/1991 for eastern Northwest China–western North China, 1987/1988 for Southwest China, and 1997/1998 for northern Xinjiang. Along with the decreasing spring ELT events frequency, the spring ELT events intensities have weakened in the five regions in the past half century. However, in the past 10 years, the spring ELT events frequency and intensity over eastern China have increased, which merits concern.
- Spring extreme low temperature /
- Frequency /
- Intensity

HTML全文

图 1 1961～2016年中国春季极端低温事件（a）定义阈值（温度阈值，单位：°C）、（b）频次（单位：a⁻¹）及（c）频次的标准差（单位：a⁻¹）分布。R表示图中物理量的值，下同

Figure 1. Distribution of (a) threshold (temperature threshold, units: °C), (b) frequency (units: a⁻¹), and (c) standard deviation (units: a⁻¹) of spring extreme low temperature events during 1961–2016 in China. R represents the value of the variables in the figure, the same below

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图 2 中国春季极端低温事件频次REOF前五个模态。（a）、（b）、（c）、（d）和（e）矩形分别代表东北—华北东部地区、江南地区、西北东部—华北西部地区、西南地区和新疆北部地区

Figure 2. First five REOF modes for frequencies of spring extreme low temperature events. The rectangles in (a), (b), (c), (d), and (e) represent Northeast China–eastern North China, the Jiangnan region, eastern Northwest China–western North China, Southwest China, and northern Xinjiang, respectively

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图 3 5个区域平均的标准化春季极端低温事件频次序列（柱状）及其9年滑动平均（曲线）。（a）、（b）、（c）、（d）和（e）分别代表东北—华北东部地区、江南地区、西北东部—华北西部地区、西南地区和新疆北部地区

Figure 3. The time series of standardized frequencies of spring extreme low temperature（ELT）events averaged in the five regions (gray bars) and their 9-year moving-average values (curve). (a), (b), (c), (d), and (e) represent Northeast China–eastern North China, the Jiangnan region, eastern Northwest China–western North China, Southwest China, and northern Xinjiang, respectively

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图 4 5个区域春季极端低温事件频次时间序列的Morlet小波图。左图为小波功率谱（等值线），填色区通过95%信度检验，黑色弧线为小波边界；右图为各周期波谱，虚线代表95%的红噪音信度检验。（a）、（b）、（c）、（d）和（e）分别代表东北—华北东部地区、江南地区、西北东部—华北西部地区、西南地区和新疆北部地区

Figure 4. Morlet wavelet of frequencies of spring extreme low temperature events in the five regions. The left column is wavelet power spectrum (contour), shaded areas in the left column indicate anomalies that meet the 95% confidence level, the black arc is the wavelet boundary; the right column is wavelet power spectrum of each period, dashed lines indicate the 95% confidence level using a red-noise background spectrum. (a), (b), (c), (d), and (e) represent Northeast China–eastern North China, the Jiangnan region, eastern Northwest China–western North China, Southwest China, and northern Xinjiang, respectively

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图 5 5个区域春季极端低温事件频次时间序列的MK检验（黑色实线代表UF线，黑色虚线代表UB线，y=±1.96虚线代表95%信度检验线）。（a）、（b）、（c）、（d）和（e）分别代表东北—华北东部地区、江南地区、西北东部—华北西部地区、西南地区和新疆北部地区

Figure 5. MK test of frequencies of spring extreme low temperature events in the five regions (black solid line indicates the UF line, black dashed line is the UB line, y=±1.96 dashed lines indicate lines at the 95% confidence level). (a), (b), (c), (d), and (e) represent Northeast China–eastern North China, the Jiangnan region, eastern Northwest China–western North China, Southwest China, and northern Xinjiang, respectively

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图 6 5个区域两个时段春季最低温度的概率密度函数（PDF）分析。（a）、（b）、（c）、（d）和（e）分别代表东北—华北东部地区、江南地区、西北东部—华北西部地区、西南地区和新疆北部地区

Figure 6. Probability Density Functions (PDFs) of spring minimum temperature in the five regions for two different decadal backgrounds. (a), (b), (c), (d), and (e) represent Northeast China–eastern North China, the Jiangnan region, eastern Northwest China–western North China, Southwest China, and northern Xinjiang, respectively

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图 7 1961～2016年中国春季极端低温事件（a）强度（单位：°C）及（b）强度的标准差（单位：°C）分布

Figure 7. Distributions of (a) intensity (units: °C) and (b) standard deviation (units: °C) of spring extreme low temperature events during 1961–2016 in China

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图 8 5个区域平均的标准化春季极端低温事件强度的时间序列（柱状）及其9年滑动平均（曲线）。（a）、（b）、（c）、（d）和（e）分别代表东北—华北东部地区、江南地区、西北东部—华北西部地区、西南地区和新疆北部地区

Figure 8. The time series of standardized intensities of spring extreme low temperature (ELT) events averaged in the five regions (gray bars) and their 9-year moving-average values (curve). (a), (b), (c), (d), and (e) represent Northeast China–eastern North China, the Jiangnan region, eastern Northwest China–western North China, Southwest China, and northern Xinjiang, respectively

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图 9 2007～2016年与1997～2006年（a）春季极端低温事件频次的差值（单位：a^–1），（b）春季极端低温事件强度的差值（单位：°C）。白色圆圈为通过95%信度检验站点

Figure 9. Differences in (a) frequency of spring extreme low temperature events (units: a^–1) and (b) intensity of spring extreme low temperature events (units: °C) between 2007–2016 and 1997–2006. White circles indicate stations that meet the 95% confidence level

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表 1 MTT检验得出的5个区域春季极端低温事件频次突变年

Table 1. Abrupt change years of frequencies of spring extreme low temperature events in the five regions, as detected by the MTT

区域	突变年
东北—华北东部地区（32°～54°N，113°～135°E）	1987/1988***
江南地区（18°～31.5°N，102°～122°E）	1995/1996***
西北东部—华北西部地区（34°～42°N，96.5°～112.5°E）	1990/1991***
西南地区（21°～33°N，78.5°～102°E）	1987/1988**
新疆北部地区（40°～50°N，80°～95°E）	1997/1998**
、*分别是通过95%和99%的MTT检验

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