Spatial and Temporal Features of Spring Extreme Low Temperature Events in China during 1961–2016
-
摘要: 利用1961~2016年中国529个台站逐日最低气温资料,研究了中国春季极端低温事件的时空变异特征。旋转经验正交分解结果显示,中国春季极端低温事件的频次在空间上可以分为5个区域,即东北—华北东部地区、江南地区、西北东部—华北西部地区、西南地区和新疆北部地区。小波分析表明,这5个区域春季极端低温事件的频次在年际尺度上呈现出2~4年的振荡周期,其中江南地区、西北东部—华北西部地区和新疆北部地区2~4年的振荡周期在整个研究时段都显著,但东北—华北东部地区和西南地区2~4年的显著周期分别出现在20世纪80年代之前和80年代到90年代中期。在长期变化上,这5个区域春季极端低温事件的频次总体均呈减少趋势,但突变年份具有明显差异。Mann-Kendall和滑动t检验结果表明,东北—华北东部地区春季极端低温事件频次的突变时间为1987/1988年、江南地区为1995/1996年、西北东部—华北西部地区为1990/1991年、西南地区为1987/1988年、新疆北部地区为1997/1998年。伴随着春季极端低温事件频次的降低,5个区域春季极端低温事件的强度在过去半个多世纪也呈现出显著的下降趋势。但近10年来,中国东部地区春季极端低温事件的频次和强度却有所增加,需要引起关注。Abstract: Based on daily minimum temperature data from 529 stations in China for the period 1961–2016, in this study, we investigated the spatio-temporal features of spring extreme low temperature (ELT) events. The results of our rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis indicates that, with respect to the variability of the spring ELT events frequency, China can be divided into five regions, including Northeast China–eastern North China, the Jiangnan region, eastern Northwest China–western North China, Southwest China, and northern Xinjiang. The results of our Morlet wavelet analysis indicate that the spring ELT events frequencies over the five regions exhibit a 2–4-year quasi-periodicity. This 2–4-year quasi-periodicity is significant over the whole period for the Jiangnan region, eastern Northwest China–western North China, and northern Xinjiang; over the period prior to the early 1980s for Northeast China–eastern North China; and over the period between early 1980s and mid-1990s for Southwest China. With respect to long-term variation, the spring ELT events frequencies over all five regions exhibit decreasing trends, although the years of their abrupt change differ. The results of our Mann–Kendall analysis and moving t-test suggest that the abrupt change in the spring ELT events frequency occurred in 1987/1988 for Northeast China–eastern North China, 1995/1996 for the Jiangnan region, 1990/1991 for eastern Northwest China–western North China, 1987/1988 for Southwest China, and 1997/1998 for northern Xinjiang. Along with the decreasing spring ELT events frequency, the spring ELT events intensities have weakened in the five regions in the past half century. However, in the past 10 years, the spring ELT events frequency and intensity over eastern China have increased, which merits concern.
-
Key words:
- Spring extreme low temperature /
- Frequency /
- Intensity
-
图 1 1961~2016年中国春季极端低温事件(a)定义阈值(温度阈值,单位:°C)、(b)频次(单位:a−1)及(c)频次的标准差(单位:a−1)分布。R表示图中物理量的值,下同
Figure 1. Distribution of (a) threshold (temperature threshold, units: °C), (b) frequency (units: a−1), and (c) standard deviation (units: a−1) of spring extreme low temperature events during 1961–2016 in China. R represents the value of the variables in the figure, the same below
图 2 中国春季极端低温事件频次REOF前五个模态。(a)、(b)、(c)、(d)和(e)矩形分别代表东北—华北东部地区、江南地区、西北东部—华北西部地区、西南地区和新疆北部地区
Figure 2. First five REOF modes for frequencies of spring extreme low temperature events. The rectangles in (a), (b), (c), (d), and (e) represent Northeast China–eastern North China, the Jiangnan region, eastern Northwest China–western North China, Southwest China, and northern Xinjiang, respectively
图 3 5个区域平均的标准化春季极端低温事件频次序列(柱状)及其9年滑动平均(曲线)。(a)、(b)、(c)、(d)和(e)分别代表东北—华北东部地区、江南地区、西北东部—华北西部地区、西南地区和新疆北部地区
Figure 3. The time series of standardized frequencies of spring extreme low temperature(ELT)events averaged in the five regions (gray bars) and their 9-year moving-average values (curve). (a), (b), (c), (d), and (e) represent Northeast China–eastern North China, the Jiangnan region, eastern Northwest China–western North China, Southwest China, and northern Xinjiang, respectively
图 4 5个区域春季极端低温事件频次时间序列的Morlet小波图。左图为小波功率谱(等值线),填色区通过95%信度检验,黑色弧线为小波边界;右图为各周期波谱,虚线代表95%的红噪音信度检验。(a)、(b)、(c)、(d)和(e)分别代表东北—华北东部地区、江南地区、西北东部—华北西部地区、西南地区和新疆北部地区
Figure 4. Morlet wavelet of frequencies of spring extreme low temperature events in the five regions. The left column is wavelet power spectrum (contour), shaded areas in the left column indicate anomalies that meet the 95% confidence level, the black arc is the wavelet boundary; the right column is wavelet power spectrum of each period, dashed lines indicate the 95% confidence level using a red-noise background spectrum. (a), (b), (c), (d), and (e) represent Northeast China–eastern North China, the Jiangnan region, eastern Northwest China–western North China, Southwest China, and northern Xinjiang, respectively
图 5 5个区域春季极端低温事件频次时间序列的MK检验(黑色实线代表UF线,黑色虚线代表UB线,y=±1.96虚线代表95%信度检验线)。(a)、(b)、(c)、(d)和(e)分别代表东北—华北东部地区、江南地区、西北东部—华北西部地区、西南地区和新疆北部地区
Figure 5. MK test of frequencies of spring extreme low temperature events in the five regions (black solid line indicates the UF line, black dashed line is the UB line, y=±1.96 dashed lines indicate lines at the 95% confidence level). (a), (b), (c), (d), and (e) represent Northeast China–eastern North China, the Jiangnan region, eastern Northwest China–western North China, Southwest China, and northern Xinjiang, respectively
图 6 5个区域两个时段春季最低温度的概率密度函数(PDF)分析。(a)、(b)、(c)、(d)和(e)分别代表东北—华北东部地区、江南地区、西北东部—华北西部地区、西南地区和新疆北部地区
Figure 6. Probability Density Functions (PDFs) of spring minimum temperature in the five regions for two different decadal backgrounds. (a), (b), (c), (d), and (e) represent Northeast China–eastern North China, the Jiangnan region, eastern Northwest China–western North China, Southwest China, and northern Xinjiang, respectively
图 8 5个区域平均的标准化春季极端低温事件强度的时间序列(柱状)及其9年滑动平均(曲线)。(a)、(b)、(c)、(d)和(e)分别代表东北—华北东部地区、江南地区、西北东部—华北西部地区、西南地区和新疆北部地区
Figure 8. The time series of standardized intensities of spring extreme low temperature (ELT) events averaged in the five regions (gray bars) and their 9-year moving-average values (curve). (a), (b), (c), (d), and (e) represent Northeast China–eastern North China, the Jiangnan region, eastern Northwest China–western North China, Southwest China, and northern Xinjiang, respectively
图 9 2007~2016年与1997~2006年(a)春季极端低温事件频次的差值(单位:a–1),(b)春季极端低温事件强度的差值(单位:°C)。白色圆圈为通过95%信度检验站点
Figure 9. Differences in (a) frequency of spring extreme low temperature events (units: a–1) and (b) intensity of spring extreme low temperature events (units: °C) between 2007–2016 and 1997–2006. White circles indicate stations that meet the 95% confidence level
表 1 MTT检验得出的5个区域春季极端低温事件频次突变年
Table 1. Abrupt change years of frequencies of spring extreme low temperature events in the five regions, as detected by the MTT
区域 突变年 东北—华北东部地区(32°~54°N,113°~135°E) 1987/1988*** 江南地区(18°~31.5°N,102°~122°E) 1995/1996*** 西北东部—华北西部地区(34°~42°N,96.5°~112.5°E) 1990/1991*** 西南地区(21°~33°N,78.5°~102°E) 1987/1988** 新疆北部地区(40°~50°N,80°~95°E) 1997/1998** **、***分别是通过95%和99%的MTT检验 -
[1] Alexander L V, Zhang X B, Peterson T C, et al. 2006. Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation [J]. J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 111(D5): D05109. doi: 10.1029/2005JD006290 [2] Bonsal B R, Zhang X, Vincent L A, et al. 2001. Characteristics of daily and extreme temperatures over Canada [J]. J. Climate, 14(9): 1959−1976. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<1959:codaet>2.0.co;2 [3] Brabson B B, Palutikof J P. 2002. The evolution of extreme temperatures in the Central England temperature record [J]. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29(24): 2163. doi: 10.1029/2002GL015964 [4] Brown S J, Caesar J, Ferro C A T. 2008. Global changes in extreme daily temperature since 1950 [J]. J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 113(D5): D05115. doi: 10.1029/2006JD008091 [5] Chen H P, Sun J Q, Fan K. 2012. Decadal features of heavy rainfall events in eastern China [J]. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 26(3): 289−303. doi: 10.1007/s13351-012-0303-0 [6] 付冬雪, 孙照渤, 李忠贤, 等. 2011. 1955~2006冬半年中国极端低温的时空变化特征 [J]. 气象科学, 31(3): 274−281. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-0827.2011.03.005Fu D X, Sun Z B, Li Z X, et al. 2011. Spatial and temporal features of China extreme minimum temperature in winter half year during 1955–2006 [J]. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences (in Chinese), 31(3): 274−281. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-0827.2011.03.005 [7] 高丽, 任宏利, 郑嘉雯, 等. 2019. 基于NCEP-GEFS回算资料的我国极端温度变化特征研究 [J]. 大气科学学报, 42(1): 58−67. doi: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20180911001Gao L, Ren H L, Zheng J W, et al. 2019. Diagnosis features of extreme temperature variations in China based on the NCEP-GEFS reforecasts [J]. Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 42(1): 58−67. doi: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20180911001 [8] Griffiths G M, Chambers L E, Haylock M R, et al. 2005. Change in mean temperature as a predictor of extreme temperature change in the Asia–Pacific region [J]. Int. J. Climatol., 25(10): 1301−1330. doi: 10.1002/joc.1194 [9] Grotjahn R, Black R, Leung R, et al. 2016. North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: A review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends [J]. Climate Dyn., 46(3–4): 1151−1184. doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2638-6 [10] 黄嘉佑, 李庆祥. 2015. 气象数据统计分析方法 [M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 457–459.Huang J Y, Li Q X. 2015. Meteorological Data Statistical Analysis Method (in Chinese)[M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 457–459. [11] Huang D Q, Qian Y F, Zhu J. 2010. Trends of temperature extremes in China and their relationship with global temperature anomalies [J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 27(4): 937−946. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-9085-4 [12] 江志红, 丁裕国, 屠其璞. 1999. 中国近50年冬夏季极端气温场的年代际空间型态及其演变特征研究 [J]. 应用气象学报, 10(S1): 97−103. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.1999.z1.012Jiang Z H, Ding Y G, Tu Q P. 1999. Interdecadal spatial structure and evolution of extreme temperatures in winter and summer over China during the past 50 years [J]. Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology (in Chinese), 10(S1): 97−103. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.1999.z1.012 [13] Karl T R, Kukla G, Razuvayev V N, et al. 1991. Global warming: Evidence for asymmetric diurnal temperature change [J]. Geophys. Res. Lett., 18(12): 2253−2256. doi: 10.1029/91gl02900 [14] Lee S S, Kim S H, Jhun J G, et al. 2013. Robust warming over East Asia during the boreal winter monsoon and its possible causes [J]. Environmental Research Letters, 8(3): 034001. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034001 [15] Liu X D, Yin Z Y, Shao X M, et al. 2006. Temporal trends and variability of daily maximum and minimum, extreme temperature events, and growing season length over the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau during 1961–2003 [J]. J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 111(D19): D19109. doi: 10.1029/2005JD006915 [16] 刘雅星, 范广洲, 董一平, 等. 2010. 近46年中国冬季日均气温及极端温度的变化 [J]. 成都信息工程学院学报, 25(3): 286−292. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-1742.2010.03.012Liu Y X, Fan G Z, Dong Y P, et al. 2010. Variations of winter daily average temperature and extreme temperature in the recently 46 years in China [J]. Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology (in Chinese), 25(3): 286−292. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-1742.2010.03.012 [17] 罗云峰. 2002. 降低对天气和气候极端事件的脆弱性——2002年“世界气象日”主题 [J]. 中国科学基金, 16(5): 279−283. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-8217.2002.05.007Luo Y F. 2002. "Reducing vulnerability to weather and climate extremes"——The theme of 2002 world meteorological day [J]. Bulletin of National Natural Science Foundation of China(in Chinese), 16(5): 279−283. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-8217.2002.05.007 [18] 马柱国, 符淙斌, 任小波, 等. 2003. 中国北方年极端温度的变化趋势与区域增暖的联系 [J]. 地理学报, 58(S1): 11−20. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2003.z1.002Ma Z G, Fu C B, Ren X B, et al. 2003. Trend of annual extreme temperature and its relationship to regional warming in northern China [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica (in Chinese), 58(S1): 11−20. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2003.z1.002 [19] Manton M J, Della-Marta P M, Haylock M R, et al. 2001. Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific: 1961–1998 [J]. Int. J. Climatol., 21(3): 269−284. doi: 10.1002/joc.610 [20] 任福民, 翟盘茂. 1998. 1951~1990年中国极端气温变化分析 [J]. 大气科学, 22(2): 217−227. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1998.02.10Ren F M, Zhai P M. 1998. Study on changes of China’s extreme temperatures during 1951–1990 [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (Scientia Atmospherica Sinica) (in Chinese), 22(2): 217−227. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1998.02.10 [21] 任国玉, 初子莹, 周雅清, 等. 2005. 中国气温变化研究最新进展 [J]. 气候与环境研究, 10(4): 701−716. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-9585.2005.04.001Ren G Y, Chu Z Y, Zhou Y Q, et al. 2005. Recent progresses in studies of regional temperature changes in China [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 10(4): 701−716. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-9585.2005.04.001 [22] Sisco M R, Bosetti V, Weber E U. 2017. When do extreme weather events generate attention to climate change? [J]. Climatic Change, 143(1–2): 227−241. doi: 10.1007/s10584-017-1984-2 [23] 王翠花, 李雄, 缪启龙. 2003. 中国近50年来日最低气温变化特征研究 [J]. 地理科学, 23(4): 441−447. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-0690.2003.04.009Wang C H, Li X, Miao Q L. 2003. Variety characteristics of daily minimum air temperature in China in recent 50 years [J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica (in Chinese), 23(4): 441−447. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-0690.2003.04.009 [24] 王冀, 江志红, 张海东, 等. 2007. 1957~2000年东北地区春季极端气温变化及其与北极涛动的关系 [J]. 气候变化研究进展, 3(1): 41−45. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2007.01.008Wang J, Jiang Z H, Zhang H D, et al. 2007. Variations of spring extreme temperature indexes in northeast China and their relationships with the Arctic oscillation [J]. Advances in Climate Change Research (in Chinese), 3(1): 41−45. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2007.01.008 [25] 王晓娟, 龚志强, 任福民, 等. 2012. 1960~2009年中国冬季区域性极端低温事件的时空特征 [J]. 气候变化研究进展, 8(1): 8−15. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2012.01.002Wang X J, Gong Z Q, Ren F M, et al. 2012. Spatial/temporal characteristics of China regional extreme low temperature events in winter during 1960–2009 [J]. Progressus Inquisitiones de Mutatione Climatis (in Chinese), 8(1): 8−15. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2012.01.002 [26] 吴绍洪, 尹云鹤. 2012. 极端事件对人类系统的影响 [J]. 气候变化研究进展, 8(2): 99−102. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2012.02.004Wu S H, Yin Y H. 2012. Impacts of climate extremes on human systems [J]. Progressus Inquisitiones de Mutatione Climatis (in Chinese), 8(2): 99−102. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2012.02.004 [27] 武丽梅, 陈璐, 王凯, 等. 2016. 中国大陆1983~2012年年极端气温时空变化特征 [J]. 干旱气象, 34(6): 945−951. doi: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2016)-06-0945Wu L M, Chen L, Wang K, et al. 2016. Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of annual extreme temperature in the mainland of China during 1983–2012 [J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology (in Chinese), 34(6): 945−951. doi: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2016)-06-0945 [28] 肖冰霜, 马玉霞, 赵天保, 等. 2016. 基于均一化资料的中国大陆极端温度的长期趋势 [J]. 气象, 42(3): 339−346. doi: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2016.03.009Xiao B S, Ma Y X, Zhao T B, et al. 2016. Long-term trends in extreme temperature over China mainland based on homogenized dataset [J]. Meteorological Monthly (in Chinese), 42(3): 339−346. doi: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2016.03.009 [29] 谢星旸, 游庆龙, 王雨枭. 2018. 1961~2014年中国冬季极端低温变化特征分析 [J]. 气候与环境研究, 23(4): 429−441. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.17034Xie X Y, You Q L, Wang Y X. 2018. Changes in extreme low temperature in China in the winters from 1961 to 2014 [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 23(4): 429−441. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.17034 [30] Xu W H, Li Q X, Wang X L, et al. 2013. Homogenization of Chinese daily surface air temperatures and analysis of trends in the extreme temperature indices [J]. J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 118(17): 9708−9720. doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50791 [31] 严中伟, 杨赤. 2000. 近几十年中国极端气候变化格局 [J]. 气候与环境研究, 5(3): 267−272. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2000.03.05Yan Z W, Yang C. 2000. Geographic patterns of extreme climate changes in China during 1951–1997 [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 5(3): 267−272. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2000.03.05 [32] 杨金虎, 江志红, 魏锋, 等. 2006. 近45a来中国西北年极端高、低温的变化及对区域性增暖的响应 [J]. 干旱区地理, 29(5): 625−631. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-6060.2006.05.002Yang J H, Jiang Z H, Wei F, et al. 2006. Variability of extreme high temperature and low temperature and their response to regional warming in Northwest China in recent 45 years [J]. Arid Land Geography (in Chinese), 29(5): 625−631. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-6060.2006.05.002 [33] 杨萍, 刘伟东, 王启光, 等. 2010. 近40年我国极端温度变化趋势和季节特征 [J]. 应用气象学报, 21(1): 29−36. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2010.01.004Yang P, Liu W D, Wang Q G, et al. 2010. The climatic change trend and seasonal characteristics of daily temperature extremes in China for the latest 40 years [J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science (in Chinese), 21(1): 29−36. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2010.01.004 [34] Yoo Y E, Son S W, Lee J H, et al. 2019. Abrupt decrease of wintertime cold nights in Korea in the late 1980s [J]. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 55(1): 31−39. doi: 10.1007/s13143-018-0057-4 [35] You Q L, Ren G Y, Fraedrich K, et al. 2013. Winter temperature extremes in China and their possible causes [J]. Int. J. Climatol., 33(6): 1444−1455. doi: 10.1002/joc.3525 [36] 张霏燕, 徐海明. 2011. 东北春季极端低温的变化特征及其与大西洋海温的关系 [J]. 大气科学学报, 34(5): 574−582. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-7097.2011.05.007Zhang F Y, Xu H M. 2011. Spatial/temporal variations of spring extreme low temperature in Northeast China and its relationship with SSTA in Atlantic Ocean [J]. Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 34(5): 574−582. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-7097.2011.05.007 [37] Zhang Z J, Qian W H. 2011. Identifying regional prolonged low temperature events in China [J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 28(2): 338−351. doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-0048-6 [38] 翟盘茂, 潘晓华. 2003. 中国北方近50年温度和降水极端事件变化 [J]. 地理学报, 58(S1): 1−10. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2003.z1.001Zhai P M, Pan X H. 2003. Change in extreme temperature and precipitation over northern China during the second half of the 20th century [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica (in Chinese), 58(S1): 1−10. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2003.z1.001 [39] 赵俊虎, 封国林, 张世轩, 等. 2011. 近48年中国的季节变化与极端温度事件的联系 [J]. 物理学报, 60(9): 099205. doi: 10.7498/aps.60.099205Zhao J H, Feng G L, Zhang S X, et al. 2011. Seasonal changes in China during recent 48 years and their relationship with temperature extremes [J]. Acta Physica Sinica (in Chinese), 60(9): 099205. doi: 10.7498/aps.60.099205 [40] 周雅清, 任国玉. 2010. 中国大陆1956~2008年极端气温事件变化特征分析 [J]. 气候与环境研究, 15(4): 405−417. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2010.04.08Zhou Y Q, Ren G Y. 2010. Variation characteristics of extreme temperature indices in mainland China during 1956–2008 [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 15(4): 405−417. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2010.04.08 [41] Zhu Y L, Wang H J, Wang T, et al. 2018. Extreme spring cold spells in North China during 1961–2014 and the evolving processes [J]. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 11(5): 432−437. doi: 10.1080/16742834.2018.1514937 -