Reproductions of Northern Hemisphere Blocking in BCC Models and Possible Reasons for the Biases
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摘要: 基于NCEP/NCAR、日本气象厅的JRA55以及欧洲中期预报中心（ECMWF）最新发布的ERA5三套逐日再分析资料数据，考察国家气候中心中等分辨率（约110 km）的气候系统模式BCC-CSM2-MR和单独大气模式BCC-AGCM3-MR对北半球中高纬度阻塞高压（阻高）的模拟能力。再分析数据分析结果表明：“北大西洋—欧洲地区”以及“北太平洋中部地区”分别为北半球阻高发生的最高频及次高频区域；冬春季为阻高高发季节，夏秋季阻高频率减少至冬春季的一半左右；ERA5再分析资料中各个季节的阻高频率均高于另两套资料结果，尤其在北太平洋地区。模拟评估结果显示，单独大气模式BCC-AGCM3-MR对北半球中高纬度阻高发生频率、空间分布和季节变化特征均有较好的模拟能力，其主要偏差表现为冬春欧亚大陆特别是乌拉尔山地区阻高频率偏高，而北大西洋地区阻高频率偏低；春季北太平洋阻高频率偏低。这与模式北半球高纬度地区500 hPa位势高度场气候态偏差有关。BCC-CSM2-MR耦合模式的阻高模拟偏差总体与大气模式类似。但耦合模式中冬季欧亚大陆特别是乌拉尔山地区阻高频率减小、北太平洋春季阻高频率增大，模拟偏差减小。同时，耦合模式能够再现夏季北太平洋东西阻高频率双峰值特征。因此，海气耦合过程有助于改善对欧亚及北太平洋地区阻高频率模拟。阻高频率年际变率受到气候系统内部变率不确定性的较大影响，这也是制约阻高预测水平的重要因素。
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关键词:
- 北半球阻塞高压 /
- 再分析资料 /
- BCC-CSM2-MR模式 /
- BCC-AGCM3-MR模式 /
- 模拟偏差评估
Abstract: In this study, the performances of the median-resolution (about 110 km) climate system model (BCC-CSM2-MR) and atmospheric model (BCC-AGCM3-MR) developed at the National Climate Center are evaluated using three reanalysis datasets (ERA5, JRA55, and NCEP/NCAR). The results show that a high blocking tendency can be distinguished over the “North Atlantic–Western Europe” and “Central North Pacific”. The winter and spring blocking frequency is almost twice of that in summer and autumn. The blocking frequency in the ERA5 dataset is higher than that in the JRA55 and NCEP/NCAR datasets, especially over the North Pacific. Model evaluations show that the atmospheric model reproduces the main features of the Northern Hemisphere blocking frequency, spatial structures, and seasonal variations very well. The main biases of the model are overestimation over Europe–Asia in winter and spring, especially over the Ural Mountains, and underestimations over the North Atlantic. These biases are attributed to the climatological biases in geopotential heights at 500 hPa. The overall performances of the BCC-CSM2-MR model are similar to those of the BCC-AGCM3-MR model. However, the winter and spring blocking over Europe–Asia and especially over the Ural Mountains, is improved. Spring blocking and the double-peak blocking structure in summer over the North Pacific are also better reproduced in the coupled model. Therefore, air–sea coupling may help to improve the reproduction of blocking frequency over Europe–Asia and the North Pacific. The internal variability of the climate system has a great impact on the variation of the blocking frequency, which also affects the capability of the model to predict blocking highs. -
图 1 1998年6月14日500 hPa位势高度场（单位：dagpm）。黑色十字区为公式（1）、（2）和（3）成立的区域
Figure 1. 500-hPa geopotential height (units: dagpm) on 14 June 1998. The black crosses indicate the geopotential height gradients meet the requirements of equations (1), (2), and (3)
图 2 1979～2014年平均各经度阻高频率分布。黑色实线、长虚线和短虚线分别为ERA5、JRA55和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料的结果。红色长虚线、短虚线和长短虚线为BCC-AGCM3-MR大气模式三个AMIP样本的结果。蓝色长虚线为BCC-CSM2-MR耦合模式的结果
Figure 2. Annually averaged longitudinal distribution of blocking high frequency during the period 1979–2014. The black solid line, black long dashed line, and black short dashed line represent ERA5, JRA55, and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets; the red long dashed line, red short dashed line, and red long–short dashed line indicate AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) simulations using BCC-AGCM3-MR model; the blue line indicate historical simulation using BCC-CSM2-MR model
图 4 （a）冬季（DJF）、（b）春季（MAM）、（c）夏季（JJA）、（d）秋季（SON）BCC-AGCM3-MR模式模拟的500 hPa位势高度场相对于ERA5再分析资料的偏差（单位：gpm）。（e–h）同（a–d），但为BCC-CSM2-MR模式的模拟偏差
Figure 4. Biases (units: gpm) of 500-hPa geopotential height between BCC-AGCM3-MR model and ERA5 reanalysis dataset in (a) winter (DJF), (b) spring (MAM), (c) summer (JJA), and (d) autumn (SON); (e–h) as in (a–d), but for the biases between BCC-CSM2-MR model and ERA5 reanalysis dataset
图 5 1979～2014年北半球季节平均阻高发生频率的经度—时间分布：（a）ERA5再分析资料；（b）BCC-AGCM3-MR大气模式AMIP试验第一个样本结果；（c）BCC-CSM2-MR气候系统模式历史试验（Historical）第一个样本结果
Figure 5. Distributions of the longitude–time for blocking frequency in each season from 1979 to 2014: (a) ERA5 reanalysis dataset; (b) first member in the AMIP simulation by BCC-AGCM3-MR model; (c) first member in the historical simulation by BCC-CSM2-MR model
图 6 1979～2014年北半球两个阻高中心区季节平均阻高发生频率统计分布：（a–c）大西洋欧洲地区（20°W～40°E）；（d–f）北太平洋中部地区（150°E～150°W）。方括号中的数字分别为阻高出现频率的中间值和变幅（最大频率与最小频率之差），长方形的上、下方短横线分别表示上10%频率阈值（上十分位数）、下10%频率阈值（下十分位数），长方形的上、下边界及中间横线分别为上三分之一（上三分位数）、下三分之一（下三分位数）频率阈值、中间值
Figure 6. Statistical distributions of seasonal blocking frequency for the two blocking centers in the Northern Hemisphere from 1979 to 2014: (a–c) “North Atlantic–West Europe” (20°W–40°E); (d–f) “Central North Pacific” (150°E–150°W). Numbers in square brackets represent the medians and amplitudes (maximum minus minimum) of seasonal blocking frequency, respectively; the short lines above and below the rectangles indicate upper interdecitile and lower interdectile, respectively; the upper and lower sides of the rectangles represent the upper and lower intertritiles, respectively; the lines within the rectangles represent the medians
表 1 国家气候中心大气模式BCC-AGCM3-MR和耦合模式BCC-CSM2-MR模拟的北半球1979～2014年各个季节平均及年平均阻高频率与三套再分析资料（ERA5、JRA55、NCEP/NCAR）结果间的均方根误差
Table 1. Root mean square errors of the seasonal and annual mean northern hemispheric blocking high frequencies for simulations using BCC models (BCC-AGCM3-MR, BCC-CSM2-MR) and the three reanalysis datasets (ERA5, JRA55, NCEP/NCAR) from 1979 to 2014
模式 再分析资料 阻高频率均方根误差 冬季 春季 夏季 秋季 全年 BCC-AGCM3-MR ERA5 3.99% 3.42% 3.24% 1.81% 1.57% JRA55 4.83% 2.53% 2.15% 1.81% 1.40% NCEP/NCAR 4.75% 2.66% 2.20% 1.84% 1.37% BCC-CSM2-MR ERA5 2.61% 3.27% 2.46% 1.66% 1.19% JRA55 3.32% 3.21% 1.59% 1.84% 1.41% NCEP/NCAR 3.28% 3.20% 1.65% 1.81% 1.34% 
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