Impacts of Decay of Different El Niño Types on Boreal Summer Rainfall and Surface Air Temperature in South Asian Monsoon Region and Tibetan Plateau
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摘要: El Niño（厄尔尼诺）事件对东亚和南亚次年夏季降水影响及其机理已经得到充分研究，但其对夏季青藏高原降水是否有显著影响还不清楚。本研究根据1950年后El Niño事件次年衰减期演变速度，对比分析衰减早型与晚型El Niño事件对南亚季风区与青藏高原夏季（6～9月）季节平均和月平均气候影响差异。结果显示在衰减早型次年夏季热带太平洋海温转为拉尼娜（La Niña）型且持续发展，引起Walker环流上升支西移，印度洋和南亚季风区上升运动加强，同时激发异常西北太平洋反气旋（NWPAC），阿拉伯海异常气旋和伊朗高原异常反气旋性环流响应，增加7～9月对流层偏南气流和印度洋水汽输送，导致南亚和高原西南侧降水偏多。衰减晚型次年6～8月热带太平洋El Niño型海温仍维持，印度洋暖异常海温显著，对应的印度洋和南亚季风区上升运动较弱，NWPAC西伸控制南亚季风区，阿拉伯海和中西亚分别呈现异常反气旋和气旋性环流，导致青藏高原西风加强，水汽输送减少，南亚北部和高原降水一致偏少。结果表明：（1）El Niño显著影响次年青藏高原西南部夏季季节和月平均降水与温度，是印度和高原西南部夏季降水显著相关的重要原因；（2）El Niño衰减快慢速度对南亚和青藏高原西南部夏季季节内降水的影响有着重要差异。Abstract:
In this paper, we extensively examine the impacts of El Niño events on boreal summer rainfall over the East Asian Monsoon and South Asian Monsoon (SAM) regions and their associated mechanisms. To date, the various impacts of an El Niño event on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) regional seasonal and monthly rainfall and circulation have not been systematically examined. Based on the timing of the El Niño decay with respect to the boreal summer season and 1950–2018 sea surface temperature (SST) data, the El Niño decay phases are classified into two types: (1) early decay and (2) late decay. If the El Niño decays to below the threshold before spring, a La Niña sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) pattern usually develops during summer with increasing anomaly amplitudes from June to September. This causes an enhanced westward shift in the Walker circulation with a strong ascending branch over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and the SAM, and induces concurrent heavy rainfall over the SAM and southwestern TP areas from July to September. Meanwhile, the developing La Niña SSTA forces a response by the anomalous North Western Pacific anticyclone (NWPAC), an anomalous cyclonic circulation over the Arabian Sea, and anticyclonic circulation over the Western Asian region. These induce a strengthening southerly wind anomaly, enhance water vapor transport to the Indian and TP regions from the TIO, and thus increase summer precipitation over northern India and the southwestern TP. In contrast, if El Niño decays below the threshold after September, the eastern Pacific El Niño SSTA pattern and the strong SST warming over the TIO persists into June to July, then gradually weakens from August to September. This causes an anomalous ascending branch of the Walker circulation over the eastern TIO with a weak ascending branch over the western TIO and SAM, an anomalous eastwardly extended NWPAC, an anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the Arabian Sea, and cyclonic circulation over the Western and Central Asian region, which induce a strengthening westerly wind anomaly and reduces water vapor transport over the TP. The above responses result in deficient rainfall and warm surface temperatures in the central and northern SAM regions in June, but relatively increased rainfall and cool surface air temperature over most of the SAM region during August and September. This coincides with dryness over northeastern India and the southwestern TP in June, and then increasing precipitation over northwestern India and the western TP in September. Our results confirm that a decaying El Niño has a significant impact on summer seasonal and monthly precipitation and temperature over the TP, which may explain the positive correlation between Indian and southwestern TP precipitation recently discussed in some studies. Our results also suggest that differences in the El Niño decay phase have strong impacts on the seasonal and intraseasonal rainfall over the SAM region and the southwestern TP. -
图 1 两类衰减型El Niño事件的海洋性El Niño指数（ONI）的时间演变合成结果。蓝（红）色粗线代表衰减早（晚）型平均演变。相应颜色的虚线为对应分类的样本年份。黑色横线为厄尔尼诺事件阈值（+0.5°C）。El Niño发展当年季节标记为（0），发展次年季节标记为（1）。详细分类见表1
Figure 1. Composite of time-series evolution of Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) events with different El Niño decay types. The blue (red) thick line represents the mean ONI of the early (late) decay type, and the dashed lines with corresponding colors indicate individual years. The black horizontal line is the threshold of El Niño events (+0.5°C). The El Niño developing years are marked by (0), while the following years are marked by (1). Detailed classifications are shown in Table 1.
图 2 南亚季风区与青藏高原夏季季节平均（a）衰减早型、（c）衰减晚型El Niño事件的降水距平（填色，单位：mm month−1）与（b）衰减早型、（d）衰减晚型厄尔尼诺事件的地表气温距平（填色，单位：K）的合成分析。打点区域为通过90%显著性水平检验，绿色实线为3000 m海拔等高线
Figure 2. Composite of summer mean precipitation anomalies (shaded, units: mm month−1) in El Niño events with (a) early decay and (c) late decay. Bottom panels show the mean surface air temperature anomalies (shaded, units: K) for (b) early-decay and (d) late-decay types over the South Asian Monsoon (SAM) and Tibetan Plateau (TP) regions. The dots indicate areas that pass a test of statistical significance at 90% confidence level. The green solid line is the 3000-m elevation contour
图 3 印度洋—太平洋区域夏季（a，d）季节平均海表温度距平（填色，单位：K）与700 hPa风场（矢量，单位：m s−1，标出风速超过0.2 m s−1区域），（b，e）OLR距平（单位：W m−2），（c，f）500 hPa垂直速度（填色，单位：10−2 Pa s−1）、200 hPa速度势（等值线，单位：m2 s−1，间隔：5×105 m2 s−1）与辐散风（矢量，单位：m s−1）在（a–c）衰减早型与（d-f）衰减晚型合成分析。图（a，d）、（b，e）与（c，f）打点区域分别为海表温度距平、OLR与500 hPa垂直速度通过90%显著性水平检验区域，图（a, d）, 加粗箭头表明矢量风场至少一个分量通过90%显著性水平检验，C与AC分别代表异常气旋与反气旋
Figure 3. (a, d) Composites of summer mean SSTAs (shaded, units: K) and 700-hPa winds field (vector, units: m s−1, magnitude exceeding 0.2 m s−1 are displayed), (b, e) OLR (units: W m−2), (c, f) 500-hPa vertical velocity (shaded, units: 10−2 Pa s−1) and 200-hPa velocity potential (contour, units: m2 s−1, interval = 5×105 m2 s−1) during (a–c) early-decay and (d–f) late-decay El Niño events in the Indo-Pacific Ocean. The dots in (a, d), (b, e) and (c, f) indicate areas in which the SSTA, OLR, and 500-hPa vertical velocity pass a test of statistical significance at 90% confidence level, respectively. Bold arrows in (a, d) indicate that at least one component of the vector wind passes a test of significance at 90% confidence level, and the anomalous cyclones and anticyclonesare labeled C and AC, respectively
图 4 南亚季风区与青藏高原（a–c）衰减早型与（d–f）衰减晚型El Niño事件的（a，d）600 hPa、（b，e）500 hPa与（c、f）400 hPa夏季季节平均比湿距平（填色，单位：10−2 g kg−1）与矢量风距平（矢量，单位：m s−1，标出风速超过0.2 m s−1区域）合成。图中打点区域为比湿通过90%显著性水平检验，加粗箭头表示矢量风场至少一个分量通过90%显著性水平检验。红色实线为3000 m海拔等高线
Figure 4. Summer seasonal mean composites of (a, d) 500-hPa, (b, e) 400-hPa, and (c, f) 300-hPa specific humidity anomalies (shaded, units: 10−2 g kg−1) and vector wind anomalies (vector, units: m s−1, magnitude exceeding 0.2 m s−1 are displayed) in (a–c) early-decay and (d–f) late-development El Niño events over the SAM region and TP. The dots indicate areas in which the specific humidity passes a test of significance at 90% confidence level, and bold arrows indicate that at least one component of vector wind passes the test of significance at 90% confidence level. The red solid line is the 3000-m elevation contour
图 5 南亚季风区与青藏高原（a–d）衰减早型与（e–h）衰减晚型El Niño事件的6～9月逐月降水距平（填色，单位：mm month−1）合成。打点区域为通过90%显著性水平检验
Figure 5. Monthly composites of summer precipitation anomalies (shaded, units: mm month−1) from June to September in (a–d) early-decay and (e–h) late-decay El Niño events over the SAM region and TP. The dots indicate areas that pass a test of significance at the 90% confidence level
图 7 印度洋—太平洋区域（a–d）衰减早型与（e–h）衰减晚型依次的6～9月海表温度距平（填色，单位：K）与700 hPa矢量风距平（矢量，单位：m s−1，标出风速超过0.2 m s−1区域）合成分析。图中打点区域为海表温度距平通过90%显著性水平检验，加粗箭头表明矢量风场至少一个分量通过90%显著性水平检验。异常气旋与反气旋分别用C与AC标记
Figure 7. Monthly composite of SSTA (shaded, units: K) and 700-hPa vector wind anomalies (vector, units: m s−1, magnitude exceeding 0.2 m s−1 are displayed) from June to September in (a–d) early-decay and (e–h) late-decay El Niño events in the Indo-Pacific Ocean. The dots indicate areas of SSTA that pass a test of significance at the 90% confidence level, and bold arrows indicate that at least one component of vector wind passes a test of significance at the 90% confidence level. Anomalous cyclones and anticyclones are labeled C and AC, respectively
图 9 同图7，但为衰减早型逐月500 hPa垂直速度（填色，单位：10−2 Pa s−1）、200 hPa速度势（等值线，单位：m2 s−1，间隔：5×105 m2 s−1）与辐散风（矢量，单位：m s−1）距平合成分析。打点区域为500 hPa垂直速度通过90%显著性水平检验
Figure 9. Same as Fig. 7, except for monthly composites of 500-hPa vertical velocity (shaded, units: 10−2 Pa s−1) and 200-hPa velocity potential (contour, units: m2 s−1, interval=5×105 m2 s−1) and divergent wind (vector, units: m s−1). The dots indicate areas of 500-hPa vertical velocity that pass a test of statistical significance at the 0.10 level.
图 10 南亚季风区与青藏高原（a–d）衰减早型与（e–h）衰减晚型6～9月逐月的500 hPa比湿距平（填色，单位：10−2 g kg−1）与矢量风距平（矢量，单位：m s−1, 标出风速超过0.2 m s−1区域）合成。打点区域为500 hPa比湿通过90%显著性水平检验, 加粗箭头表明矢量风至少一个分量通过90%显著性水平检验。异常气旋与反气旋分别用C与AC标记
Figure 10. Monthly composites of 500-hPa specific humidity anomalies (shaded, units: 10−2 g kg−1) and vector wind anomalies (vector, unit: m s−1, magnitude exceeding 0.2 m s−1 are displayed) from June to September in (a–d) early-decay and (e–h) late-development El Niño events over the SAM region and the TP. The dots indicate areas in which the 500-hPa specific humidity passes a test of statistical significance at the 0.10 level, and bold arrows indicate that at least one component of vector wind passes a test of significance at the 90% level. Anomalous cyclones and anticyclones are labeled C and AC, respectively
表 1 1950～2018年夏季El Niño事件衰减期分类
Table 1. Classification of the decay phases of El Niño events during boreal summers from 1950 to 2018
位相阶段 类型 年份 El Niño衰减阶段 衰减早型 1952, 1954, 1959, 1964, 1970, 1973, 1978, 1988, 1995, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2010 衰减晚型 1958, 1966, 1969, 1980, 1983, 1992, 1998, 2016 气候态 1952, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1967, 1968, 1978, 1979, 1981, 1984, 1990, 1993, 2001, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017 
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