Future Climate Change Projection over Xinjiang based on an Ensemble of Regional Climate Model Simulations
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摘要: 本文基于一套在5个全球气候模式结果驱动下，RegCM4区域气候模式对东亚25 km水平分辨率的集合预估，分析了中、高温室气体典型排放路径（RCP4.5和RCP8.5）下，21世纪不同时期新疆地区的未来气候变化。对模式当代气候模拟结果的检验表明，区域模式的模拟集合（ensR）总体上能够很好地再现当代新疆平均气温、降水和极端气温、降水分布特征。ensR预估21世纪未来新疆平均气温和降水将不断升高或增加，RCP8.5下的变化大于RCP4.5。在21世纪末期RCP8.5下，区域年平均气温和降水将分别增加4.9°C和28%（102 mm），夏季（6～8月）的升温幅度略高于冬季（12～2月），降水则以冬季增加为主。极端温度以及高温日数同样将不断升高，其中年日最低气温最小值的增幅总体高于年日最高气温最大值，未来新疆地区的极端冷事件将减少，高温、热浪事件将增加。由极端降水指标日最大降水量反应的强降水事件将普遍增加，连续无降水日数总体以减少为主。积雪变化存在一定区域差异，具体表现为除塔里木盆地外的普遍减少。对总径流量和表层土壤湿度的预估分析表明，二者在新疆地区均以增加为主，但水文干旱在北疆会加重。ensR各模拟间无论是在当代模拟还是未来预估中都表现出较好的一致性，但在变化的具体数量及个别情况下符号均存在一定差异。最后，综合考虑ensR对各要素的预估发现，总体而言新疆未来更趋向于“暖湿化”，但这不会改变其干旱、半干旱气候的本质，而且水文干旱频率在一些地区会增加，未来新疆的水资源状况仍不容乐观。Abstract: Based on a set of twenty-first-century climate change projections by a regional climate model (RegCM4) at a 25-km grid spacing driven by five global models, future climate change over Xinjiang in Northwest China under the middle and high representative concentration pathways of 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) is investigated. Results show the multi-RegCM4 ensemble (ensR) clearly determines both the spatial distributions and the amounts of mean temperature and precipitation, along with extreme temperature and precipitation. In the future, the temperature and precipitation over Xinjiang are projected to rise or increase continuously, especially under RCP8.5 compared with RCP4.5. Moreover, by the end of the twenty-first century under RCP8.5, the regional mean increases in annual temperature and precipitation will be as 4.9°C and 28% (102 mm), respectively. Increases of temperature and precipitation extremes are also reported as measured by different indices, indicating more heat waves, less cold spells, and more extreme precipitation in the future. Specifically, for temperature, greater increase of annual minimum of daily minimum temperature (TNn) is found compared to annual maximum of daily maximum temperature (TXx). By the end of the twenty-first century under RCP8.5, the increase of regional mean TXx and TNn over Xinjiang will be 4.9°C and 5.8°C, respectively. As for extreme precipitation indices, an increase of RX1day by 29% (5 mm) and a decrease of CDD by 10 days are found. The change of snow cover shows spatial differences, with a general decrease except a large percentage increase in the western Tarim Basin. A 13% reduction is reported for the regional mean snow coverage at the end of the twenty-first century under RCP8.5. The total runoff and soil moisture are projected to increase; however, more hydrological droughts in northern Xinjiang are projected to occur. The ensR show consistencies among the ensemble members, but there exist differences concerning the change of amount and the sign in some cases. Overall, considering the analyzed variables, a “warmer and more humid” tendency of climate as observed in the late decades will be expected in Xinjiang in the future. However, this may not change the fact of the dominance of arid and semiarid climate over the region. In addition, hydrological droughts are also projected to increase in the future. Thus, high attention still needs to be paid for the availability and risks on water resources over the region.
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Key words:
- Regional climate model /
- Climate change /
- Extreme events /
- Xinjiang
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图 1 RegCM4对新疆及境内周边地区地形分布的描述（单位：m）。虚线表示文中划分的五个分区，分别为分区I：包含阿尔泰山、巴尔鲁克山及周边；分区II：整个天山山脉；分区III：昆仑山北部；分区IV：准噶尔盆地及周边；分区V：塔里木盆地、吐鲁番盆地及周边
Figure 1. Topography over Xinjiang and the surround areas (units: m). The dashed line indicates the five subregions used for the present study: I, Altai and Balluk mountains and their surrounding areas; II, Tianshan Mountain; III, northern part of Kunlun Mountain; IV, Junggar Basin and its surrounding areas; V, Tarim and Turpan Basins and their surrounding areas
图 2 当代（1986～2005年）年平均气温（单位：°C；左列）和降水（单位：mm；右列）分布：（a、b）观测；（c、d）ensG模拟结果；（e、f）ensR模拟结果
Figure 2. The distribution of present-day annual mean temperature (units: °C; left column) and precipitation (units: mm; right column) from (a, b) observations, (c, d) ensG model results, and (e, f) ensR model results
图 3 当代极端气温相关指数TXx（单位：°C；左列）、TNn（单位：°C；中间列）和T35D（单位：d；右列）分布：观测结果（第一行）；ensG模拟结果（第二行）；ensR模拟结果（第三行）
Figure 3. The distribution of present-day TXx (units: °C; left column), TNn (units: °C; middle column), and T35D (units: d; right column) extreme temperature correlation indexes: Observations (top line), ensG (second line), ensR (bottom line)
图 4 当代极端降水相关指数RX1day（单位：mm；左列）、CDD（单位：d；右列）的分布：（a、b）观测；（c、d）ensG模拟结果；（e、f）ensR模拟结果
Figure 4. The distribution of present-day RX1day (units: mm; left column) and CDD (units: d; right column) extreme precipitation correlation indexes: (a, b) Observations; (c, d) ensG; (e, f) ensR
图 5 （a、c）21世纪中期（2041～2060年）RCP4.5情景和（b、d）21世纪末期（2081～2098年）RCP8.5情景下，年平均气温（单位：°C；第一行）和降水（以变化百分率表示；第二行）相对于当代的变化
Figure 5. Future changes in annual mean temperature (units: °C; top line) and precipitation (percent; bottom line) relative to the present day by (a, c) the mid-twenty-first century (2046–2065) under RCP4.5 and by (b, d) the end of the twenty-first century (2081–2098) under RCP8.5
图 6 新疆区域平均气温（左列，单位：°C）和降水变化（右列）RCP4.5（蓝色）和RCP8.5（红色）情景下（a、b）21世纪的逐年变化以及（c、d）21世纪中期、末期的逐月变化。阴影表示模拟间隔1个标准差的范围
Figure 6. Annual mean changes and annual cycle of changes in regional mean temperature (units: °C) and precipitation over Xinjiang relative to historical observations. Temporal evolution of temperature (a) and (b) precipitation during the twenty-first century (blue and red indicate RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, with values of trend provided in upper-left corner); annual cycle of (c) temperature and (d) precipitation by the mid-twenty-first century under RCP4.5 (blue) and by the end of the twenty-first century under RCP8.5 (red). The shade represents the range of ±1 standard deviation
图 7 （a、c、e）21世纪中期（2041～2060年）RCP4.5情景和（b、d、f）21世纪末期（2081～2098年）RCP8.5情景下TXx（单位：°C；第一行）和TNn（单位：°C；第二行）及T35D（单位：d；第三行）相对于当代的变化
Figure 7. Future changes in TXx (units: °C; top line), TNn (units: °C; middle line) and T35D (units: d; bottom line) relative to the present day by (a, c, e) the mid-twenty-first century (2046–2065) under RCP4.5 and by (b, d, f) the end of the twenty-first century (2081–2098) under RCP8.5
图 8 （a、c）21世纪中期（2041～2060年）RCP4.5情景和（b、d）21世纪末期（2081～2098年）RCP8.5情景下RX1day（以变化百分率表示；第一行）和CDD（单位：d；第二行）相对于当代的变化
Figure 8. Future changes in RX1day (percent; top line) and CDD (units: d; bottom line) relative to the present day by (a, c) the mid-twenty-first century (2046–2065) under RCP4.5 and by (b, d) the end of the twenty-first century (2081–2098) under RCP8.5
图 9 （a）21世纪中期RCP4.5情景下积雪相对于当代的变化；21世纪后期RCP8.5情景下（b）积雪、（c）总径流（单位：mm）、（d）水文干旱频率、（e）土壤湿度（单位：mm）和（f）农业干旱频率相对于当代的变化
Figure 9. (a) Changes in snow cover by the mid-twenty-first century under RCP4.5, changes in (b) snow cover, (c) total runoff (units: mm), (d) runoff P10th, (e) soil moisture (units: mm), and (f) soil moisture P10t by the end of the twenty-first century under RCP8.5h over Xinjiang relative to historical observations
表 1 用于驱动RegCM4的5个CMIP5全球气候模式信息
Table 1. Information for the five CMIP5 driving models
模式名称 机构 分辨率（以经度×
纬度格点数表示）文献 CSIRO-MK3-6-0 澳大利亚联邦科学与工业研究组织、
澳大利亚气象局192×96 （Rotstayn et al., 2010） EC-EARTH 欧洲中期天气预报中心 320×160 （Hazeleger et al., 2010） HadGEM2-ES 英国哈德莱中心 192×145 （Johns et al., 2006; Martin et al., 2006; Ringer et al., 2006） MPI-ESM-MR 德国马普气象研究所 192×96 （Marsland et al., 2003; Raddatz et al., 2007） NorESM1-M 挪威气候中心 144×96 （Bentsen et al., 2013; Iversen et al., 2013） 
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表 2 ensG/ensR模拟的当代各气候要素与观测结果在新疆地区及各分区区域平均的偏差
Table 2. Regional mean bias of the climate variables in the present day over Xinjiang and its subregions between ensG/ensR and observations
气候要素与观测结果区域平均的偏差（ensG) 气温/°C 降水偏差/mm(偏差百分比) TXx/°C TNn/°C T35D/d RX1day/mm(偏差百分比) CDD/d I 0.7 3 (1%) 3.6 −2.6 2 3 (24%) 10 II 2.4 12 (4%) 6.0 −1.5 3 0 (1%) 5 III −1.0 407 (238%) 0.4 −4.6 0 9 (104%) −72 IV −1.6 −22 (−10%) 0.1 −3.4 −1 −2 (−15%) 19 V −2.6 156 (218%) −2.1 −4.4 −7 4 (44%) −7 新疆地区 −1.2 152 (94%) 0.3 −3.8 −3 3 (33%) −14 气候要素与观测结果区域平均的偏差（ensR） 气温/°C 降水偏差/mm(偏差百分比) TXx/°C TNn/°C T35D/d RX1day/mm(偏差百分比) CDD/d I −0.7 422 (138%) −0.9 −4.4 1 19 (177%) −12 II −0.5 469 (153%) 0.8 −6.3 1 14 (94%) −25 III −2.5 477 (279%) −1.6 −9.7 0 11 (122%) −85 IV 3.0 15 (7%) 2.0 0.7 12 2 (15%) 4 V 1.6 26 (37%) 1.7 −0.9 11 2 (19%) −21 新疆地区 0.5 208 (128%) 0.7 −3.6 7 6 (60%) −31
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表 3 ensR预估的各气候要素在21世纪中期RCP4.5情景下，新疆及各分区平均变化及最小、最大变化值
Table 3. Regional mean and the minimum and maximum values of changes as projected by ensR by the mid-twenty-first century under RCP4.5 scenarioover Xinjiang and its subregions
平均变化值 气温/°C 降水(变化百分比) TXx/°C TNn/°C T35D/d RX1day(变化百分比) CDD/d 雪(变化百分比) DJF JJA ANN DJF JJA ANN ANN ANN ANN ANN ANN ANN I 1.5 1.9 1.9 25 (17%) 2 (1%) 49 (7%) 1.8 1.9 2 0 (2%) 0 1 (1%) II 1.5 1.9 1.9 14 (16%) 22 (7%) 54 (7%) 1.7 1.6 2 1 (3%) −2 −4 (−10%) III 2.1 1.6 1.6 17 (21%) 10 (5%) 53 (8%) 1.6 1.8 0 1 (7%) −2 0 (0%) IV 1.6 2.0 2.0 11 (22%) 2 (3%) 23 (10%) 1.7 2.1 12 1 (6%) −2 0 (−2%) V 1.5 1.9 1.9 7 (44%) 1 (5%) 16 (17%) 1.7 1.5 18 1 (12%) −9 0 (3%) 新疆地区 1.6 1.8 1.8 12 (22%) 6 (5%) 33 (9%) 1.7 1.7 10 1 (7%) −5 −0.5 (−3%) 最小变化值(最大变化值) 气温/°C 降水变化百分比 TXx/°C TNn/°C T35D/d RX1day CDD/d 雪 DJF JJA ANN DJF JJA ANN ANN ANN ANN ANN ANN ANN I 0.9(2.3) 1.1(3.0) 1.1(3.0) 11%(21%) −9%(4%) 1%(11%) 0.6(2.5) 1.0(3.3) 0(4) −24%(11%) −1(2) −15%(14%) II 1.0(2.3) 1.2(2.6) 1.2(2.6) 12%(23%) 3%(11%) 4%(8%) 0.7(2.5) 0.5(2.5) 0(4) −14%(11%) −5(0) −18%(−3%) III 1.6(3.1) 1.3(1.9) 1.3(1.9) 14%(26%) −7%(11%) 4%(10%) 0.7(2.2) 1.3(2.7) 0(1) 5%(10%) −5(−1) −10%(6%) IV 0.9(2.3) 1.2(3.0) 1.2(3.0) 13%(29%) −11%(9%) 3%(19%) 0.7(2.5) 0.6(3.7) 4(21) −5%(16%) −5(1) −14%(26%) V 1.2(1.9) 1.4(2.6) 1.4(2.6) 32%(70%) −1%(12%) 11%(23%) 0.8(2.7) 0.5(2.2) 12(23) 5%(26%) −15(−4) −16%(19%) 新疆地区 1.3(2.3) 1.3(2.5) 1.3(2.5) 18%(31%) 1%(9%) 8%(10%) 0.8(2.5) 0.9(2.5) 6(14) 0(11%) −9(−2) −10%(2%)
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表 4 同表3，但为21世纪后期RCP8.5情景
Table 4. Same as Table 3, but for the end of 21st century under RCP8.5 scenario
平均变化值 气温/°C 降水(变化百分比) TXx/°C TNn/°C T35D/d RX1day
(变化百分比)CDD(d) 雪(变化
百分比)总径流(变化百分比) 土壤湿度
(变化百分比)DJF JJA ANN DJF JJA ANN ANN ANN ANN ANN ANN ANN ANN ANN I 4.4 5.3 4.8 68(45%) −9(−4%) 110(15%) 5.3 6.5 9 4(14%) 1 −7(−9%) 87(14%) 2(12%) II 4.6 5.1 4.8 41(46%) 55(17%) 170(22%) 4.9 5.4 9 5(19%) −4 −10(−27%) 154(22%) 2(15%) III 5.9 4.5 5.1 49(62%) 37(17%) 175(27%) 4.5 4.5 2 6(33%) −5 0(−1%) 162(28%) 2(18%) IV 4.5 5.6 4.9 30(57%) −1(−2%) 61(27%) 5.2 7.3 39 3(24%) −2 −2(−29%) 14(26%) 2(16%) V 4.4 5.4 4.9 21(125%) 5(17%) 55(56%) 4.9 5.6 52 4(41%) −18 0(−5%) 3(27%) 2(18%) 新疆地区 4.8 5.2 4.3 34(63%) 18(14%) 102(28%) 4.9 5.8 30 5(29%) −10 −2(−13%) 66(24%) 2(17%) 最小变化值(最大变化值) 气温/°C 降水变化百分比 TXx/°C TNn/°C T35D/d RX1day CDD/d 雪 总径流 土壤湿度 DJF JJA ANN DJF JJA ANN ANN ANN ANN ANN ANN ANN ANN ANN I 2.9
(5.4)4.3
(6.5)4.0
(5.8)28%
(65%)−15%
(2%)2%
(24%)4.3
(6.3)3.8
(7.4)2
(14)−10%
(26%)−2
(2)−23%
(11%)−9%
(33%)5%
(18%)II 3.5
(5.8)4.4
(6.0)4.2
(5.6)31%
(59%)8%
(32%)15%
(31%)4.0
(5.4)4.0
(6.5)3
(14)2%
(34%)−9
(−2)−35%
(−17%)14%
(29%)12%
(19%)III 4.7
(7.4)4.0
(4.8)4.6
(5.7)45%
(73%)5%
(38%)13%
(37%)3.7
(5.0)4.3
(6.6)1
(4)20%
(46%)−9
(−2)−34%
(15%)5%
(41%)16%
(22%)IV 3.3
(5.5)4.6
(6.8)4.2
(5.9)30%
(83%)−11%
(9%)12%
(41%)4.3
(6.1)4.3
(8.4)24
(54)1%
(42%)−9
(4)−45%
(11%)0
(53%)9%
(22%)V 3.6
(5.2)4.7
(6.2)4.3
(5.6)88%
(146%)−5%
(45%)38%
(72%)4.1
(5.4)4.5
(6.2)44
(63)36%
(54%)−33
(−6)−17%
(13%)−10%
(47%)15%
(22%)新疆地区 3.8
(5.8)4.5
(6.0)4.3
(5.7)49%
(76%)4%
(32%)19%
(39%)4.0
(5.4)4.4
(6.7)23
(38)14%
(43%)−17
(−3)−26%
(−4%)12%
(35%)13%
(21%)
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