Analysis of the Characteristics and Causes of Interdecadal Changes in the Summer Extreme Precipitation over Eastern China
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摘要: 本研究利用逐日降水资料对中国东部夏季极端降水进行检测，并对转变前后的特征进行对比分析，进而从海、陆对增温的响应不同导致的环流调整给出成因分析。结果表明，（1）中国东部夏季极端降水在1990年前后出现显著的年代际转变，极端降水由偏少转为偏多。转折后与转折前相比，中国东部夏季极端降水落区南移，南方偶极子分布型加强，南方极端降水增加、北方极端降水减少，其中华南和华东地区，极端降水量和降水日数增加，对夏季降水的贡献率增大；华北地区，极端降水量和降水日数减少，对夏季降水的贡献率减小。（2）西太平洋暖池区异常升温造成的海陆温差减小是中国东部夏季极端降水1990年前后转变的重要驱动因素之一。它造成1990年之后低纬度季风强度减弱、西太平洋副热带高压增强并南移、南海副高增强，而中高纬度气旋性环流异常被破坏、东亚大槽增强，进而导致华北经向水汽输送减弱，下沉运动显著加强，极端降水量和降水日数减少。于此同时，华南和华东地区则水汽输送加强，上升运动显著，有利于降水偏多，并伴随极端降水量和降水日数有所增加。Abstract: Using daily precipitation data from eastern China, in this study, we investigated the interdecadal shift in the summer extreme precipitation (SEP) and analyzed the characteristics before and after the climate shift. We also analyzed the cause from the perspective of different responses to global warming between land and ocean, which leads to circulation adjustments. The results show that the SEP in eastern China exhibited an obvious interdecadal shift around 1990, after which it became a positive anomaly. Compared with the SEP before the shift, the distributions of major modes shifted south, the intensity of SEP was enhanced, and the contribution rate to summer precipitation increased in both South and East China, whereas in North China all of these factors exhibited the opposite change. The change in the temperature difference between land and ocean caused by the strong positive anomaly of the sea surface temperature in the western Pacific warm pool is one of the important factors driving this shift, leading to the interdecadal adjustment of the East Asia summer monsoon system. In the low–middle latitudes, the intensity of the summer monsoon weakened, the West Pacific subtropical high strengthened and moved south, and the South China Sea high was also enhanced. In the middle–high latitudes, this cyclonic anomaly was broken and the East Asia Trough strengthened. Under the influence of this circulation adjustment, the water vapor decreased (increases) and vertical motion weakened (is enhanced) in North China (South and East China). Thus, the SEP decreased in North China and increased in South and East China.
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图 1 1961～2015年中国东部夏季极端降水阈值分布（单位：mm）
Figure 1. Threshold value distribution of the summer extreme precipitation (SEP) over eastern China from 1961 to 2015 (units: mm)
图 2 1961～2015年中国东部夏季极端降水（a）逐年距平变化及其（b）M-K突变检验结果和（c）滑动t检验结果
Figure 2. (a) Annual anomaly variation of SEP, (b) its M-K test results, and (c) moving t test results over eastern China from1961 to 2015
图 3 中国东部夏季极端降水转折前后（a，c）EOF1和（b，d）EOF2空间模态：（a，b）转折前（1961～1990年）；（c，d）转折后（1991～2015年）。红实线为0线；“＋”表示通过0.05显著性水平检验
Figure 3. (a, c) EOF1 and (b, d) EOF2 before and after the climate shift for the SEP in eastern China: (a, b) Before the shift (1961–1990); (c, d) after the shift (1991–2015). Red line indicates 0 value; ＋: significance level of 0.05
图 4 转折前后中国东部夏季极端降水量距平及差值分布（单位：mm）：（a）1961～1990；（b）1991～2010；（c）降水量差值（转折后－转折前）。“＋”表示通过0.05显著性水平检验
Figure 4. Distribution of precipitation anomalies and difference in the SEP before and after the climate shift in eastern China (units: mm): (a) 1961–1990; (b): 1991–2010; (c) difference (SEP after the shift minus before). ＋: significance level of 0.05
图 5 转折前后中国东部夏季（a）极端降水量贡献率和（b）极端降水日数（单位：d）的差值分布。“＋”表示通过0.05显著性水平检验
Figure 5. Difference in (a) the contribution rate and (b) rainfall days (units: d) of SEP before and after the climate shift in eastern China. ＋: significance level of 0.05
图 6 （a）1961～2015年中国东部夏季极端降水时间序列与同期夏季平均海温相关及转折（b）前、（c）后海温距平。“＋”表示相关性通过0.05显著性水平检验
Figure 6. (a) Correlation between the summer SST and the SEP time series for eastern China during the 1961–2015 period and (b, c) the SSTA before and after the climate shift (＋: significance level of 0.05)
图 7 转折前、后中国东部夏季区域平均气温与（a）关键区I、（b）关键区II夏季区域平均海温差值距平和（c）时间平均的东亚夏季风指数
Figure 7. Anomalies of differences between area-averaged temperature in summer over eastern China and summer area-averaged SST in (a) key region I and (b) key region II, and (c) time-averaged East Asia summer monsoon index before and after the climate shift
图 8 1961～2015年中国东部夏季区域平均气温与夏季关键区海温差值的距平和东亚夏季风指数
Figure 8. Anomalies of differences between area-averaged temperatures over eastern China and SSTs in key regions and annual East Asia summer monsoon index during the 1961–2015 period
图 9 1961～2015年北半球500 hPa高度场与中国东部区域平均夏季极端降水时间序列相关。“＋”表示通过0.05显著性水平检验
Figure 9. Correlation between the summer 500-hPa geopotential height field in North Hemisphere and the area-averaged SEP time series over eastern China during the 1961–2015 period. ＋: significance level of 0.05
图 10 转折前后（a）Walker环流（0°～20°N平均）、（b）Hadley环流（130°～150°E平均）和（c）经向环流（100°～120°E平均）差值的垂直剖面（阴影：垂直速度；实心圆点：通过0.05显著性水平检验）
Figure 10. Differences in the (a) Walker circulation (0°–20°N), (b) Hadley circulation (130°–150°E), and (c) meridional circulation (100°–120°E) before and after the climate shift (Shaded area: vertical velocity; dots: significance level of 0.05)
图 11 转折前后西太副高、南海副高和东亚大槽各指标夏季平均距平变化：（a）西太副高面积指数；（b）西太副高强度指数；（c）西太副高脊线指数；（d）南海副高面积指数；（e）南海副高强度指数；（f）东亚大槽强度指数
Figure 11. Variation of index anomalies of the western Pacific subtropical high, South China Sea high, and East Asia Trough before and after the climate shift: (a) Area index of the West Pacific subtropical high; (b) intensity index of the West Pacific subtropical high; (c) ridge line index of the West Pacific subtropical high; (d) area index of the South China Sea high; (e) intensity index of the South China Sea high; (f) intensity index of the East Asia trough
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