高级检索
吕俊梅, 琚建华, 江剑民. 近一百年中国东部区域降水的年代际跃变[J]. 大气科学, 2009, 33(3): 524-536. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2009.03.10
引用本文: 吕俊梅, 琚建华, 江剑民. 近一百年中国东部区域降水的年代际跃变[J]. 大气科学, 2009, 33(3): 524-536. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2009.03.10
Lü Junmei, Jü Jianhua, JIANG Jianmin. Interdecadal Regime Shifts of Regional Precipitation over Eastern China during the Last 100 Years[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2009, 33(3): 524-536. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2009.03.10
Citation: Lü Junmei, Jü Jianhua, JIANG Jianmin. Interdecadal Regime Shifts of Regional Precipitation over Eastern China during the Last 100 Years[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2009, 33(3): 524-536. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2009.03.10

近一百年中国东部区域降水的年代际跃变

Interdecadal Regime Shifts of Regional Precipitation over Eastern China during the Last 100 Years

  • 摘要: 采用均生函数方法对1900~1950年中国东部测站降水资料进行补插, 通过与英国Climate Research Unit (CRU) 的网格点降水资料以及王绍武等 (2000) 重建的降水资料的对比分析, 构造1900~2006年中国东部华北、 长江中下游和华南地区的月平均降水指数序列, 并用一阶矩突变扫描式t检验对这三个区域降水的多时间尺度跃变特征进行分析。结果表明, 最近一百多年来长江中下游降水发生了5次年代际尺度的跃变, 华北以及华南的降水均发生了4次年代际尺度的跃变。各区降水同时在20世纪20年代初期、 40年代中期、 60年代中期以及70年代中期发生跃变。具体而言, 20年代初期长江中下游和华南的降水发生年代际减少, 而此时华北降水年代际增加; 40年代中期, 三个地区的降水都同时增加; 60年代中期, 华北降水减少, 相反地长江中下游和华南的降水发生年代际增加; 70年代中期, 华南和华北地区的降水出现年代际减少, 而长江中下游地区的降水在80年代初发生年代际增加。研究还表明, 降水跃变发生的时间尺度范围可以为我们预测跃变发生以后降水气候平均态的持续时间提供参考。

     

    Abstract: A mean generating function algorithm is used to interpolate the missing precipitation observations over eastern China during the period of 1900-1950. Compared with the grid precipitation of Climate Research Unit (CRU) and the reconstructed precipitation of Wang et al.(2000), the time series (1900-2006) of monthly rainfall indices in North China, the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and South China of eastern China are constructed. The scanning t-test detection algorithm is used to analyze and detect multi-scale regime shifts in three time series of regional precipitation. Results indicate that during the last 100 years the precipitation over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River has experienced five interdecadal regime shifts, whereas the precipitation over South China and North China has very likely undergone four interdecadal regime shifts. Furthermore the regime shifts of regional precipitation occurred simultaneously in the early 1920s, the middle 1940s, the middle 1960s and the middle 1970s, respectively. That is to say, the precipitation over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River and South China experienced an interdecadal decrease in the early 1920s. Meantime precipitation over North China underwent an interdecadal increase. The precipitation in the three regions experienced an abrupt increase synchronously in the middle 1940s. In the middle 1960s, the precipitation in North China decreased, on the contrary, the precipitation over South China and the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River experienced an interdecadal increase simultaneously. The precipitation over South China and North China experienced an interdecadal decrease in the middle 1970s, while the precipitation over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River underwent an interdecadal increase in the early 1980s. It is also revealed that the time scales of regime shifts in precipitation provide a clue that should be used to predict the duration of climate regime for precipitation after the transition occurs.

     

/

返回文章
返回