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柯宗建, 张培群, 董文杰, 等. 最优子集回归方法在季节气候预测中的应用[J]. 大气科学, 2009, 33(5): 994-1002. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2009.05.10
引用本文: 柯宗建, 张培群, 董文杰, 等. 最优子集回归方法在季节气候预测中的应用[J]. 大气科学, 2009, 33(5): 994-1002. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2009.05.10
KE Zongjian, ZHANG Peiqun, DONG Wenjie, et al. An Application of Optimal Subset Regression in Seasonal Climate Prediction[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2009, 33(5): 994-1002. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2009.05.10
Citation: KE Zongjian, ZHANG Peiqun, DONG Wenjie, et al. An Application of Optimal Subset Regression in Seasonal Climate Prediction[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2009, 33(5): 994-1002. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2009.05.10

最优子集回归方法在季节气候预测中的应用

An Application of Optimal Subset Regression in Seasonal Climate Prediction

  • 摘要: 利用DEMETER计划多个模式的模拟资料研究1959~2001年多模式集合预报的季节降水在中国区域的表现, 并结合最优子集回归(OSR)方法对中国区域的季节降水进行降尺度预报, 比较其与多模式集合预报的技巧。研究表明: 多个单模式在中国区域对季节降水的模拟性能普遍较差, 多元线性回归(MLR)集合的预报技巧不如集合平均(EM)。利用OSR方法进行降尺度预报可以极大改善中国区域季节降水的预报技巧。夏季, 降水距平相关系数(ACC)在长江以南、西藏以及内蒙古中部等地区提高很显著, ACC在中国区域的平均达到0.29, 明显高于多模式集合平均与多元线性回归集合。冬季, OSR方法可以改善多模式集合在中国北方地区较低的预报技巧。概率Brier技巧评分(BSS)也表明了OSR方法对季节降水预报的改善。需要说明的是, 虽然OSR方法在中国区域能明显提高季节降水的预报技巧, 但是其选取的预报因子与中国区域季节降水的物理机制问题仍有待于进一步的研究。

     

    Abstract: Multi-model data from DEMETER (Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction) are used to investigate the performance of multi-model ensemble of seasonal precipitation in China during 1959-2001. Moreover, combined with multi-model data, an optimal subset regression (OSR) approach is used to perform a statistical downscaling forecast for the seasonal precipitation in China. Its forecast skill is compared with those of different multi-model ensemble methods. Results show that similarly poor simulating abilities to seasonal precipitation in China can be found in several models, and the multiple linear regression (MLR) ensemble forecast performs worse than ensemble mean (EM). The forecast skill of seasonal precipitation can be significantly improved by the OSR approach in China. In summer, the temporal anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) advances obviously in the south of Yangtze River, Tibet, and the central area of Inner Mongolia. The area-averaged ACC is up to 0.29 in China, which is clearly better than those of EM and MLR ensembles. In winter, the OSR approach is helpful to improve the low level which occurs in the multi-model ensemble forecasts in the north of China. Moreover, probabilistic Brier skill score (BSS) also indicates the advantage of OSR approach over multi-model ensembles for the seasonal precipitation forecast. It is important to note that the physical mechanism between the predictor and seasonal precipitation in China should be further investigated, although a significant improvement in the seasonal precipitation forecast can be achieved by the OSR method.

     

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