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岑思弦, 巩远发, 王霄. 2007年夏季淮河流域洪涝与亚洲地区大气低频振荡的关系[J]. 大气科学, 2009, 33(6): 1286-1296. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2009.06.14
引用本文: 岑思弦, 巩远发, 王霄. 2007年夏季淮河流域洪涝与亚洲地区大气低频振荡的关系[J]. 大气科学, 2009, 33(6): 1286-1296. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2009.06.14
CEN Sixian, GONG Yuanfa, WANG Xiao. The Relationship between the Atmospheric Low-Frequency Oscillation over Asia and the Flood in the Huaihe River Valley in the Summer of 2007[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2009, 33(6): 1286-1296. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2009.06.14
Citation: CEN Sixian, GONG Yuanfa, WANG Xiao. The Relationship between the Atmospheric Low-Frequency Oscillation over Asia and the Flood in the Huaihe River Valley in the Summer of 2007[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2009, 33(6): 1286-1296. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2009.06.14

2007年夏季淮河流域洪涝与亚洲地区大气低频振荡的关系

The Relationship between the Atmospheric Low-Frequency Oscillation over Asia and the Flood in the Huaihe River Valley in the Summer of 2007

  • 摘要: 利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和我国地面观测站的逐日降水资料, 研究了2007年夏季淮河流域洪涝与亚洲地区大气低频振荡的联系, 通过分析研究表明: 2007年夏季淮河流域降水低频振荡的主要周期是30~70天, 该低频序列的方差大约占了总方差的47%; 在降水低频振荡的位相5~8 (1~4), 亚洲季风区从阿拉伯海北部经孟加拉湾到我国南海地区, 以及我国淮河流域经渤海到日本地区主要受低频热源 (热汇) 的控制; 并且在极大降水位相7, 我国东部地区 (10°N~45°N, 110°E~120°E), 从北到南, 〈Q1〉低频分量的分布呈负正相间的低频热汇、 热源、 热汇、 热源形式(位相3则呈相反的分布形式); 在位相5~8 (1~4), 亚洲季风区〈Q1〉低频分量的分布有利于 (不利于) 气流向淮河流域汇合并形成辐合上升; 受低频环流变化的影响, 在位相5~8, 大量的水汽被输送到淮河流域, 辐合上升形成降水; 相反, 在位相1~4, 来自西太平洋上的水汽在该地区辐散, 不利于降水的发生。

     

    Abstract: Floods and droughts often take place in the Changjiang-Huaihe basin. In the summer of 2007, the severe flood occurred again in the Huaihe River basin. In order to investigate the cause, using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and observed daily rainfall from gauge stations, association of the atmospheric low-frequency oscillation (LFO) over Asia with the severe flood in the Huaihe River basin in the summer of 2007 has been studied in this paper. The result shows that: the low-frequency oscillation of rainfall over the Huaihe River basin in the summer of 2007 was mainly controlled by the 30-70-day oscillation, the variance of this time series can account for about 47% of the total variance, thereby, the rainfall 30-70-day low-frequency oscillation plays an important role in the summer flood of 2007; during the period from phases 5 to 8 (1 to 4) of the rainfall low-frequency oscillation (LFO), the Asia monsoon regions from the northern Arabian Sea to the South China Sea across the Bay of Bengal and from the Huaihe River basin in China to Japan were mainly controlled by the heating source (sink) of the〈Q1〉LFO; at extreme phase 7, the 〈Q1〉 LFO presents the mode distribution of heating sink, heating source, heating sink and heating source from the north to south over eastern China (10°N-45°N, 110°E-120°E), and it is quite the reverse at extreme phase 3; from phases 5 to 8 (1 to 4), the distribution of the 〈Q1〉 LFO over the Asia monsoon region is favorable (unfavorable) for the air flow convergence over the Huaihe River basin and the resulting ascent in this region; because of the change of the circulation low-frequency oscillation (LFO), during the period from phases 5 to 8, more moisture was transported to the Huaihe River basin, convergence and ascent lead to the strong rainfall in this region; reversely, from phases 1 to 4, the divergence of moisture from the western Pacific took place in the Huaihe River basin, which makes against the rainfall occurring in this region.

     

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