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华维, 范广洲, 王炳赟. 近几十年青藏高原夏季风变化趋势及其对中国东部降水的影响[J]. 大气科学, 2012, 36(4): 784-794. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2012.11173
引用本文: 华维, 范广洲, 王炳赟. 近几十年青藏高原夏季风变化趋势及其对中国东部降水的影响[J]. 大气科学, 2012, 36(4): 784-794. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2012.11173
Hua Wei, Fan Guangzhou, WANG Bingyun. Variation of Tibetan Plateau Summer Monsoon and Its Effect on Precipitation in East China[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2012, 36(4): 784-794. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2012.11173
Citation: Hua Wei, Fan Guangzhou, WANG Bingyun. Variation of Tibetan Plateau Summer Monsoon and Its Effect on Precipitation in East China[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2012, 36(4): 784-794. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2012.11173

近几十年青藏高原夏季风变化趋势及其对中国东部降水的影响

Variation of Tibetan Plateau Summer Monsoon and Its Effect on Precipitation in East China

  • 摘要: 根据NCEP/NCAR、NCEP/DOE和ERA40再分析资料以及中国596个台站逐月降水观测资料,利用相关分析、小波分析和交叉谱分析等统计方法,分析了近几十年青藏高原夏季风变化趋势及其对中国东部降水的影响,探讨了影响高原夏季风长期变化的可能原因.结果表明:高原夏季风具有年际和年代际的多时间尺度变化特征,在1958~2010年呈显著增强趋势,同时也存在明显的年际变化.进一步分析发现,高原夏季风异常增强时,亚洲季风区大气环流出现显著变化,季风环流减弱,并伴随东亚季风降水异常,华南和华北降水减少,长江中下游地区降水增加.高原夏季风的增强趋势可能与对流层中层青藏高原—周边陆地热力差异(尤其是高原—东部平原热力差异)增大有关.

     

    Abstract: Based on the NCEP/NCAR, NCEP/DOE and ERA40 reanalysis data and the monthly precipitation data from 596 stations of China, the variation of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) summer monsoon and its impact on precipitation in eastern China are investigated by using the correlation analysis, the wavelet analysis, and the cross-spectral analysis. The results show that the plateau summer monsoon exhibits the strong interannual and long-term variability. It also shows an obviously upward trend during 1958-2010. The further analysis reveals that the abnormal enhancement of the plateau summer monsoon changes the Asia atmospheric circulation and then weakens the Asian summer monsoon. This leads to an increase of monsoon rainfall over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River and a decrease over North China and South China. The strengthening of the plateau summer monsoon over the past 50 years may be related to the enhancement of thermal difference between the TP and its surrounding plains in the middle-upper troposphere (especially of the increase of thermal difference between the TP and the plain in eastern China).

     

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