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20CR再分析资料在东亚夏季风区的质量评估

宋丰飞 周天军

宋丰飞, 周天军. 20CR再分析资料在东亚夏季风区的质量评估[J]. 大气科学, 2012, 36(6): 1207-1222. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2012.12005
引用本文: 宋丰飞, 周天军. 20CR再分析资料在东亚夏季风区的质量评估[J]. 大气科学, 2012, 36(6): 1207-1222. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2012.12005
SONG Fengfei, ZHOU Tianjun. Reliability of the 20CR Reanalysis Data in Measuring the East Asian Summer Monsoon Variability[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2012, 36(6): 1207-1222. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2012.12005
Citation: SONG Fengfei, ZHOU Tianjun. Reliability of the 20CR Reanalysis Data in Measuring the East Asian Summer Monsoon Variability[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2012, 36(6): 1207-1222. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2012.12005

20CR再分析资料在东亚夏季风区的质量评估

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2012.12005
基金项目: 全球变化国家重大科学研究计划项目2010CB951904;国家自然科学基金重大项目40890054;先导科技专项XDA05110300

Reliability of the 20CR Reanalysis Data in Measuring the East Asian Summer Monsoon Variability

  • 摘要: 本文利用NCEP1和ERA40再分析资料, 并结合观测资料, 对最新公布的一套再分析资料——20CR再分析资料在东亚夏季风区的质量进行了综合评估。本文主要是从气候态、年际变率、年代际变化三个方面, 来评估20CR再分析资料在东亚夏季风区的质量。结果表明, 在气候平均态上, 20CR再分析资料基本合理再现了东亚夏季风区的高低层环流场(包括南亚高压、副热带西风急流、近地层风场)以及经向环流圈特征。但相较于NCEP1和ERA40, 20CR所刻画的南亚高压偏强, 西风急流偏北, 对流层中上层温度系统性偏高。在年际变率方面, 除了NCEP1在1967年之前存在偏差, 使其结果和ERA40、20CR不同之外, 三套再分析资料刻画的东亚夏季风变率在其它时段高度一致。三套资料在以纬向风为基础的东亚夏季风指数上的一致性, 高于以经向风为基础的东亚夏季风指数, 其中以低层纬向风为基础的东亚夏季风指数的一致性最高。20CR再分析资料可以较好地再现与东亚夏季风相联系的地表气温和降水年际变化特征, 其刻画的地表气温正相关中心位置偏西、强度最强, 且在河套平原地区有一个弱的负相关中心, 而其描述的降水在孟加拉湾和长江流域较之另外两套再分析资料更接近观测结果, 在热带地区和海上却反之。在年代际变化方面, 20CR再分析资料未能合理再现东亚夏季风年代际减弱的现象, 这也体现在不能合理再现青藏高原下游年代际变冷和“南涝北旱”降水型上, 这主要是因为20CR再分析资料所刻画的东亚地区对流层中上层年代际变冷信号偏弱所致。而在百年时间尺度上, 20CR再分析资料所刻画的东亚夏季风变化与观测较为一致;20CR再分析资料可以合理再现出东亚夏季风区1920年代前的显著冷期和1990年代之后的迅速增暖期, 但对1920~1950年代相对暖期和1950~1980年代相对冷期的再现能力较差。
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  • 收稿日期:  2012-01-13
  • 修回日期:  2012-06-19

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