高级检索

留言板

尊敬的读者、作者、审稿人, 关于本刊的投稿、审稿、编辑和出版的任何问题, 您可以本页添加留言。我们将尽快给您答复。谢谢您的支持!

姓名
邮箱
手机号码
标题
留言内容
验证码

中国夏季和冬季极端干旱年代际变化及成因分析

刘珂 姜大膀

刘珂, 姜大膀. 中国夏季和冬季极端干旱年代际变化及成因分析[J]. 大气科学, 2014, 38(2): 309-321. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.12219
引用本文: 刘珂, 姜大膀. 中国夏季和冬季极端干旱年代际变化及成因分析[J]. 大气科学, 2014, 38(2): 309-321. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.12219
LIU Ke, JIANG Dabang. Interdecadal Change and Cause Analysis of Extreme Summerand Winter Droughts over China[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2014, 38(2): 309-321. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.12219
Citation: LIU Ke, JIANG Dabang. Interdecadal Change and Cause Analysis of Extreme Summerand Winter Droughts over China[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2014, 38(2): 309-321. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.12219

中国夏季和冬季极端干旱年代际变化及成因分析

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.12219
基金项目: 国家重点基础研究发展计划项目2012CB955401,公益性行业(气象)科研专项GYHY201006022,国家自然科学基金项目41175072

Interdecadal Change and Cause Analysis of Extreme Summerand Winter Droughts over China

  • 摘要: 依据1961~2009年中国区域540个气象站的夏、冬季气温和降水数据,首先采用气候变化趋势转折判别模型(简称PLFIM)分析了中国区域8个分区夏、冬季气温和降水的年代际变化,而后利用PDSI干旱指数研究了夏、冬季极端干旱在年代际尺度上的时空变化特征及其成因。结果表明:1961~2009年中国夏季极端干旱发生率北方大于南方,冬季则为在东部多而在西部少。夏季和冬季极端干旱发生概率在最后一次年代际转折后都呈增加趋势。在区域尺度上,夏季东北、华北和西北地区增加明显,冬季东北、华北、华南、西南地区增加显著。其中,降水在20世纪90年代以前的极端干旱变化中起主导作用,而后由于气候变暖所引起的极端干旱增加趋势逐渐增大,与降水变化的作用相互叠加。
  • [1] 安顺清, 邢久星. 1985. 修正的帕默尔干旱指数及其应用[J]. 气象, 11: 17-19. An Shunqing, Xing Jiuxing. 1985. Revised Palmer drought severity index and its application[J]. Meteorological Monthly (in Chinese), 11: 17-19.
    [2] 陈发虎, 黄伟, 靳立亚, 等. 2011. 全球变暖背景下中亚干旱区降水变化特征及其空间差异[J]. 中国科学(D辑: 地球科学), 41: 1647-1657. Chen Fahu, Huang Wei, Jin Liya, et al. 2011. Spatiotemporal precipitation variations in the arid Central Asia in the context of global warming[J]. Science in China (Series D: Earth Sciences), 54: 1812-1821.
    [3] 丁一汇, 张莉. 2008. 青藏高原与中国其他地区气候突变时间的比较[J]. 大气科学, 32: 794-805. Ding Yihui, Zhang Li. 2008. Intercomparison of the time for climate abrupt change between the Tibetan Plateau and other regions in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 32: 794-805.
    [4] Ding Y H, Ren G Y, Zhao Z C, et al. 2007. Detection, causes and projection of climate change over China: An overview of recent progress[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 24: 954-971.
    [5] 黄荣辉, 周连童. 2002. 我国重大气候灾害特征、形成机理和预测研究[J]. 自然灾害学报, 11: 1-9. Huang Ronghui, Zhou Liantong. 2002. Progresses in research on the formation mechanism and prediction theory of server climate disasters in China[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters (in Chinese), 11: 1-9.
    [6] 姜大膀, 苏明峰, 魏荣庆, 等. 2009. 新疆气候的干湿变化及其趋势预估[J]. 大气科学, 33: 90-98. Jiang Dabang, Su Mingfeng, Wei Rongqing, et al. 2009. Variation and projection of drought and wet conditions in Xinjiang[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 33: 90-98.
    [7] 李新周, 马柱国, 刘晓东. 2006. 中国北方干旱化年代际特征与大气环流的关系[J]. 大气科学, 30: 277-284. Li Xinzhou, Ma Zhuguo, Liu Xiaodong. 2006. Inter-decadal characteristics of aridification over northern China associated with the variation of atmospheric circulation during the past 50 years[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 30: 277-284.
    [8] 马柱国, 符淙斌. 2006. 1951-2004年中国北方干旱化的基本事实[J]. 科学通报, 51: 2429-2439. Ma Zhuguo, Fu Congbin. 2006. Some evidence of drying trend over northern China from 1951 to 2004[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 51: 2913-2925.
    [9] Palmer. W C. 1965. Meteorological drought[R]. Office of Climatology Research Paper 45. Weather Bureau, Washington D C, 1-58.
    [10] 任国玉, 郭军, 徐铭志, 等. 2005. 近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征[J]. 气象学报, 63: 943-956. Ren Guoyu, Guo Jun, Xu Mingzhi, et al. 2005. Climate changes of China's mainland over the past half century[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica (in Chinese), 63: 943-956.
    [11] 施晓晖, 徐祥德. 2006. 中国大陆冬夏季气候型年代际转折的区域结构特征[J]. 科学通报, 51: 2075-2084. Shi Xiaohui, Xu Xiangde. 2007. Regional characteristics of the interdecadal turning of winter/summer climate modes in Chinese mainland[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 52: 101-112.
    [12] 苏明峰, 王会军. 2006. 中国气候干湿变率与ENSO的关系及其稳定性[J]. 中国科学(D辑: 地球科学), 36: 951-958. Su Mingfeng, Wang Huijun. 2007. Relationship and its instability of ENSO-Chinese variations in droughts and wet spells[J]. Science in China (Series D: Earth Sciences), 50: 145-152.
    [13] Tomé A R, Miranda P M A. 2004. Piecewise linear fitting and trend changing points of climate parameters[J]. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31: L02207, doi: 10.1029/2003GL019100.
    [14] Trenberth K E, Jones P D, Ambenje P, et al. 2007. Observations: Surface and atmospheric climate change [M]//Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, et al, Eds. Cambridge, UK and New York, USA: Cambridge University Press, 236-336.
    [15] 王劲松, 郭江勇, 倾继祖. 2007. 一种K干旱指数在西北地区春旱分析中的应用[J]. 自然资源学报, 22: 709-717. Wang Jinsong, Guo Jiangyong, Qing Jizu. 2007. Application of a kind of K drought index in the spring drought analysis in Northwest China[J]. Journal of Natural Resources (in Chinese), 22: 709-717.
    [16] 卫捷, 马柱国. 2003. Palmer干旱指数、地表湿润指数与降水距平的比较[J]. 地理学报, 58 (增): 117-124. Wei Jie, Ma Zhuguo. 2003. Comparison of Palmer drought severity index, percentage of precipitation anomaly and surface humid index[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica (in Chinese), 58 (supplement): 117-124.
    [17] 卫捷, 陶诗言, 张庆云. 2003. Palmer干旱指数在华北干旱分析中的应用[J]. 地理学报, 58 (增): 91-99. Wei Jie, Tao Shiyan, Zhang Qingyun. 2003. Analysis of drought in northern China based on the Palmer severity drought index[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica (in Chinese), 58(supplement): 91-99.
    [18] Wilhite D A. 2000. Drought as a Natural Hazard: Concepts and Definitions[M]//Wilhite D A. Drought: A Global Assessment. London: Routledge, 3-18.
    [19] 吴佳, 高学杰. 2013. 一套格点化的中国区域逐日观测资料及与其它资料的对比[J]. 地球物理学报, 56: 1102-1111. Wu Jia, Gao Xuejie. 2013. A gridded daily observation dataset over China region and comparison with the other datasets[J]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics (in Chinese), 56: 1102-1111.
    [20] Xu Y, Gao X J, Shen Y, et al. 2009. A daily temperature dataset over China and its application in validating a RCM simulation[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 26: 763-772.
    [21] 袁文平, 周广胜. 2004. 标准化降水指标与Z指数在我国应用的对比分析[J]. 植物生态学报, 28: 523-529. Yuan Wenping, Zhou Guangsheng. 2004. Comparison between standardized precipitation index and Z-index in China[J]. Acta Phytoecologica Sinica (in Chinese), 28: 523-529.
    [22] 翟盘茂, 邹旭恺. 2005. 1951~2003年中国气温和降水变化及其对干旱的影响[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 1: 16-18. Zhai Panmao, Zou Xukai. 2005. Changes in temperature and precipitation and their impacts on drought in China during 1951-2003[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research (in Chinese), 1: 16-18.
    [23] Zhai P M, Zhang X B, Wan H, et al. 2005. Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China[J]. J. Climate, 18: 1096-1108.
    [24] Zhu Yali, Wang Huijun, Zhou Wen, et al. 2011. Recent changes in the summer precipitation pattern in East China and the background circulation[J]. Climate Dyn., 36: 1463-1473.
    [25] Zou X K, Zhai P M, Zhang Q. 2005. Variations in droughts over China: 1951-2003[J]. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32: L04707, doi: 10.1029/2004GL021853.
  • 加载中
计量
  • 文章访问数:  3937
  • HTML全文浏览量:  1
  • PDF下载量:  3722
  • 被引次数: 0
出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2012-12-16
  • 修回日期:  2013-05-22

目录

    /

    返回文章
    返回