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CMIP5全球气候模式对青藏高原地区气候模拟能力评估

胡芩 姜大膀 范广洲

胡芩, 姜大膀, 范广洲. CMIP5全球气候模式对青藏高原地区气候模拟能力评估[J]. 大气科学, 2014, 38(5): 924-938. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.13197
引用本文: 胡芩, 姜大膀, 范广洲. CMIP5全球气候模式对青藏高原地区气候模拟能力评估[J]. 大气科学, 2014, 38(5): 924-938. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.13197
HU Qin, JIANG Dabang, FAN Guangzhou. Evaluation of CMIP5 Models over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2014, 38(5): 924-938. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.13197
Citation: HU Qin, JIANG Dabang, FAN Guangzhou. Evaluation of CMIP5 Models over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2014, 38(5): 924-938. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.13197

CMIP5全球气候模式对青藏高原地区气候模拟能力评估

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.13197
基金项目: 中国科学院战略性先导科技专项——青藏高原圈层相互作用及其资源环境效应XDB03020602,国家重点基础研究发展计划项目2012CB955401,国家自然科学基金项目41175072、41375084

Evaluation of CMIP5 Models over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

  • 摘要: 青藏高原是气候变化的敏感和脆弱区,全球气候模式对于这一地区气候态的模拟能力如何尚不清楚。为此,本文使用国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)的历史模拟试验数据,评估了44 个全球气候模式对1986~2005 年青藏高原地区地表气温和降水两个基本气象要素的模拟能力。结果表明,CMIP5 模式低估了青藏高原地区年和季节平均地表气温,年均平均偏低2.3℃,秋季和冬季冷偏差相对更大;模式可较好地模拟年和季节平均地表气温分布型,但模拟的空间变率总体偏大;地形效应校正能够有效订正地表气温结果。CMIP5 模式对青藏高原地区降水模拟能力较差。尽管它们能够模拟出年均降水自西北向东南渐增的分布型,但模拟的年和季节降水量普遍偏大,年均降水平均偏多1.3 mm d-1,这主要是源于春季和夏季降水被高估。同时,模式模拟的年和季节降水空间变率也普遍大于观测值,尤其表现在春季和冬季。相比较而言,44 个模式集合平均性能总体上要优于大多数单个模式;等权重集合平均方案要优于中位数平均;对择优挑选的模式进行集合平均能够提高总体的模拟能力,其中对降水模拟的改进更为显著。
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  • 收稿日期:  2013-06-20
  • 修回日期:  2013-12-25

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