东亚—西北太平洋海平面气压场的动力特征分析

孙宇; 韩琳; 李建平; 丁瑞强

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2103.20254

东亚—西北太平洋海平面气压场的动力特征分析

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2103.20254

孙宇^1,,
韩琳¹,
李建平²,
丁瑞强^3, ,

1.
成都信息工程大学，成都610225
2.
中国海洋大学物理海洋教育部重点实验室，青岛266100
3.
北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室，北京100875

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目41975070

详细信息

作者简介:
孙宇，男，1995年出生，硕士研究生，主要从事大气可预报性的研究。E-mail: m13729002572@163.com

通讯作者:
丁瑞强，E-mail: drq@mail.iap.ac.cn

中图分类号: P434
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2020-12-29
- 录用日期: 2021-03-30
- 网络出版日期: 2021-04-20
- 刊出日期: 2022-01-18

Dynamic Properties of Sea Level Pressure Field in East Asia–Northwest Pacific

Yu SUN^1
,,
Lin HAN¹,
Jianping LI²,
Ruiqiang DING^{3
, ,}

1.
Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225
2.
Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography of the Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100
3.
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875

Funds: National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 41975070)

摘要

摘要: 东亚—西北太平洋地区的海平面气压直接反映了低层大气的环流特征，其动力特征对大气环流形势，气压系统的演变和天气、气候系统的发展等都有显著的影响。因此，深入分析东亚—西北太平洋地区海平面气压场的时空演变特征，对于提高我国的天气和气候预报具有重要意义。为了从非线性动力学的角度进行深入研究，文中使用了一种新方法来定量估算海平面气压吸引子的两个瞬时指标：瞬时维度和瞬时稳定度。瞬时维度表征了吸引子轨道在局部空间上的离散程度，瞬时稳定度则表征了轨道在局部时间上的稳定程度，它们共同反应了海平面气压吸引子的瞬时（逐日）动力特性。本文利用不同大小的指标值与海平面气压场的对应关系，研究了该地区海平面气压场的不同时空特征。主要结论为：（1）海平面气压吸引子的两个指标都是低值时，对应逐日环流场的空间特征表现为：气压结构单一，通常有几个强大的高低气压中心东西对峙；时间特征表现为：环流模态可以稳定的持续10 d左右。（2）当两个指标都是高值时，逐日环流场的空间特征表现为：多个弱的气压中心同时存在且结构混乱；时间特征为：环流场极不稳定，持续性仅在1 d左右。（3）瞬时维度和瞬时稳定度具有一致的年代际变化趋势：20世纪70～90年代呈现明显的下降趋势，90年代末快速上升，2000年后波动变化。
- 东亚—西北太平洋 /
- 海平面气压 /
- 瞬时维度 /
- 瞬时稳定度 /
- 大尺度环流 /
- 可预报性
Abstract: The sea level pressure in the East Asia–Northwest Pacific region directly reflects the circulation characteristics of the lower atmosphere, and its dynamical characteristics have considerable effects on the atmospheric circulation situation, the evolution of the pressure system, and the development of weather and climate systems. Therefore, an in-depth analysis of the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the sea level pressure field in the East Asia–Northwest Pacific region is of great significance to improve the weather and climate forecasting in China. To investigate the dynamical characteristics of the daily sea level pressure field from the viewpoint of nonlinear dynamics, a new method is used to quantitatively estimate two instantaneous indicators of the sea level pressure attractor: (1) The instantaneous dimension and (2) the instantaneous stability. The instantaneous dimension characterizes the dispersion of the attractor orbit in local space, and the instantaneous stability characterizes the stability of the orbit in local time, which together characterize the instantaneous (daily) dynamical properties of the sea level baroclinic attractor. This paper studies the different spatial and temporal characteristics of the sea level pressure field in the East Asia–Northwest Pacific region by the correspondence between the indicator values of different sizes and the daily sea level pressure circulation field. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) When both indicators of the sea level pressure attractor are low, the spatial characteristics of the corresponding circulation field exhibit a single pressure structure, usually with several strong high- and low-pressure centers facing each other at the east–west direction, while the time characteristics show that the circulation mode can be stable for approximately 10 days. (2) Whereas, when both the indicators are high, the spatial characteristics of the circulation field show the simultaneous existence of multiple weak pressure centers with a chaotic spatial structure. As for the temporal characteristics, the circulation field is extremely unstable and the duration is approximately only one day. (3) In addition, the instantaneous dimension and instantaneous stability were found to have consistent interdecadal trends, both showing a clear downward trend from the 1970s to the 1990s, a rapidly rising trend in the late 1990s, and fluctuating changes after the year 2000.
- East Asia–Northwest Pacific /
- Sea level pressure /
- Instantaneous dimension /
- Instantaneous stability /
- Large scale circulation /
- Predictability

HTML全文

图 1 （a、b）1948～2019年、（c、d）2016～2019年东亚—西北太平洋海平面气压（a、c）瞬时维度和（b、d）瞬时稳定度的逐日序列（灰线）、3个月低通滤波序列（蓝线）、1年低通滤波序列（黑线）、线性拟合（红线）

Figure 1. Daily series (gray lines), 3-month low-pass filtered series (blue lines), one-year low-pass filtered series (black lines), and linear fits (red lines) of the (a, c) instantaneous dimension and (b, d) the instantaneous stability of the sea level pressure in the East Asia–Northwest Pacific during (a, b) 1948–2019, (c, d) 2016–2019

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图 2 1948～2019年东亚—西北太平洋海平面气压（a）瞬时维度和（b）瞬时稳定度的超前滞后自相关，（c）瞬时维度和（d）瞬时稳定度的多年月平均异常序列

Figure 2. Lead–lag autocorrelation of the (a) instantaneous dimension and (b) instantaneous stability, and the multiyear monthly average anomalies of the (c) instantaneous dimension and (d) instantaneous stability of the sea level pressure in the East Asia–Northwest Pacific during 1948–2019

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图 3 1948～2019年东亚—西北太平洋海平面气压的瞬时维度和瞬时稳定度的散点分布。黑色竖虚线从左至右分别为瞬时维度的0.02和0.98分位数阈值，横虚线从下至上分别为瞬时稳定度的0.02和0.98分位数阈值。点的颜色代表月份

Figure 3. Scatter distribution of the instantaneous dimension and instantaneous stability of the sea level pressure in the East Asia–Northwest Pacific during 1948–2019. Black vertical dashed lines from left to right are the 0.02 and 0.98 quantile thresholds for the instantaneous dimension, and horizontal dashed lines from bottom to top are the 0.02 and 0.98 quantile thresholds for the instantaneous stability. The color of the dots represents the month

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图 4 1948～2019年东亚—西北太平洋海平面气压的（a）瞬时维度低值、（b）瞬时维度高值、（c）瞬时稳定度低值、（d）瞬时稳定度高值季节分布。图中圆的12个方向按顺时针顺序分别代表1～12月，同心圆的大小代表该月所占的比例

Figure 4. Seasonal distributions for (a) low values of instantaneous dimension, (b) high values of instantaneous dimension, (c) low values of instantaneous stability, and (d) high values of instantaneous stability of the sea level pressure in the East Asia–Northwest Pacific during 1948–2019. The 12 directions of the circles in the diagram represent the months from January to December in clockwise order, and the size of the concentric circles represents the proportion of the month

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图 5 1948～2019年东亚—西北太平洋海平面气压（a）瞬时维度为低值时、（b）瞬时稳定度为低值时、（c）瞬时维度为高值时、（d）瞬时稳定度为高值时对应的海平面气压环流异常场（单位：hPa）的平均特征。红色实线、蓝色虚线、黑色粗实线分别表示正值、负值、零线，等值线间隔是5 hPa。灰色区域由浅到深分别代表有60%、70%和80%的指标成员在该区域有一致的信号分布

Figure 5. Characteristics of the mean sea level pressure anomalies (colored solid lines, units: hPa) corresponding to the East Asia–Northwest Pacific when the instantaneous dimension is (a) low and (c) high and when the instantaneous stability is (b) low and (d) high during 1948–2019. The red solid lines, blue dashed lines, and black bold lines represent positive values, negative values, and zero, respectively. The gray areas from light to deep representing 60%, 70%, and 80% of the indicator members having a consistent signal distribution in that area, respectively

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图 6 1948～2019年东亚—西北太平洋海平面气压的（a–e）瞬时维度最低值和（f–j）瞬时稳定度最高值对应的（a、f）当天、（b、g）第2天、（c、h）第4天、（d、i）第6天和（e、j）第8天的日平均海平面气压异常场（单位：hPa）分布。图中打点区域代表超过70%的成员在该区域具有一致的信号分布

Figure 6. The evolution of daily mean sea level pressure anomaly fields (units: hPa) corresponding to (a–e) The minimum value of instantaneous dimensions and (f–j) maximum value of instantaneous stability of the sea level pressure in the East Asia–Northwest Pacific during 1948–2019 on the following days of (a, f) the day, (b, g) second, (c, h) fourth, (d, i) sixth and (e, j) eighth day after that day. The dotted area represents a region where more than 70% of the members have a consistent signal distribution

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图 7 1948～2019年东亚—西北太平洋（20°～60°N，90°E～150°W）、北大西洋（22°～70°N，80°W～50°E）和北半球区域（0°～90°N）海平面气压的瞬时维度的年代际趋势

Figure 7. Interdecadal trends in the instantaneous dimension of the sea level pressure in the East Asia–Northwest Pacific (20°–60°N, 90°E–150°W), North Atlantic (22°–70°N, 80°W–50°E), and Northern Hemisphere regions (0°–90°N) for the period of 1948–2019

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图 8 瞬时维度对东亚—西北太平洋海平面气压区域范围选择的敏感性：（a）五个不同大小区域[基于东亚—西北太平洋地区（20°～60°N，90°E～150°W）的范围，逐次递减5个经度和纬度，产生了5个面积由大到小的区域]海平面气压的逐年瞬时维度值和拟合结果；（b）五个区域瞬时维度的箱线图分布。虚线顶部、底部的短横线、矩形框顶部、底部和中部的横线分别表示瞬时维度的上限、下限、上四分位数、下四分位数和中位数，各区域的方差（Var）和均值（Mean）在图的底部给出

Figure 8. Sensitivity of instantaneous dimensions of the sea level pressure in the East Asia–Northwest Pacific: (a) Annual instantaneous dimension values and fitting results of the sea level pressure in five different size regions [based on the range of East Asia–Northwest Pacific (20°–60°N, 90°E–150°W), gradually decreasing five longitudes and latitudes, resulting in five areas from large to small]; (b) box plot distributions of the instantaneous dimensions for the five regions. The short horizontal lines at the top and bottom of the dashed lines, the horizontal lines at the top, bottom, and middle of the rectangular boxes represent the upper limit, lower limit, upper quartile, lower quartile, and median of the instantaneous dimension, respectively. The variance and mean of each region are given at the bottom of the picture

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