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冰雹云卫星早期识别与自动预警

徐小红 余兴 刘贵华 岳治国 朱延年

徐小红, 余兴, 刘贵华, 等. 2021. 冰雹云卫星早期识别与自动预警[J]. 大气科学, 45(6): 1−13 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2104.21010
引用本文: 徐小红, 余兴, 刘贵华, 等. 2021. 冰雹云卫星早期识别与自动预警[J]. 大气科学, 45(6): 1−13 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2104.21010
XU Xiaohong, YU Xing, LIU Guihua, et al. 2021. Early Identification and Automatic Warning of Hail Clouds by Satellite [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 45(6): 1−13 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2104.21010
Citation: XU Xiaohong, YU Xing, LIU Guihua, et al. 2021. Early Identification and Automatic Warning of Hail Clouds by Satellite [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 45(6): 1−13 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2104.21010

冰雹云卫星早期识别与自动预警

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2104.21010
基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目2018YFC1507903,中国气象局西北区域人影科学试验项目RYSY201905,陕西省重点研发计划项目2020SF-429,中国气象局创新发展专项CXFZ2021J040
详细信息
    作者简介:

    徐小红,女,1971年出生,硕士,高工,主要从事云降水和人工影响天气研究。E-mail: xu_xiaohong16@163.com

    通讯作者:

    余兴,E-mail: yu_xing23@163.com

  • 中图分类号: P482

Early Identification and Automatic Warning of Hail Clouds by Satellite

Funds: National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant 2018YFC1507903), Northwest Weather Modification Scientific Experiment of China Meteorological Administration (Grant RYSY201905), Key Research and Development Program of Shaanxi Province (Grant 2020SF-429), Innovation and Development Project of China Meteorological Administration (Grant CXFZ2021J040)
  • 摘要: 利用陕西、山东、贵州和新疆等地近十年日间降雹记录和对应的极轨卫星数据,采用卫星云微物理反演技术,定量分析冰雹云微物理特征,比较不同地区间差异,并利用FY-4A静止卫星定量分析一次冰雹过程云微物理特征演变,探讨冰雹云卫星识别预警应用潜力。结果表明:(1)陕西、山东等地冰雹云微物理特征具有一致性,卫星早期识别指标为:晶化温度(Tg)较冷,均值为−33°C;全部冰晶化时Tg对应的云粒子有效半径re(表征为reg)未饱和(<40 μm),均值36.9 μm,且reg 越小冰雹云越强;云顶呈现re随高度减小带。(2)各地冰雹云早期识别指标在数值上存在一定差异,实际应用时应针对各地进行相应调整。(3)在静止卫星上,冰雹云微物理特征与极轨卫星相一致,将早期识别指标应用于FY-4A静止卫星,跟踪云团发展演变,实现自动预警。(4)经过4次降雹过程中应用,FY-4A卫星自动预警与实况吻合22次,漏报2次,自动预警平均提前约2小时。FY-4A卫星自动预警对及时有效组织实施人工防雹作业具有重要现实意义。
  • 图  1  (a)冰雹云和深对流降水云的粒子有效半径随温度变化特征及(b)两类云云顶温度(Ttop)和晶化温度(Tg)的均值和偏差分布。(a)中蓝色和绿色实线分别为冰雹云和深对流降水云个例在相同温度层re中值的平均值,蓝色和绿色阴影分别为冰雹云和深对流降水云对应温度层re中值的范围;(b)中圆点和方点分别表示同类型云所有个例TgTtop的平均值,实线表示TgTtop的变化范围及对应regretop的变化范围

    Figure  1.  (a) Tre (temperature–effective radius) profiles of hail clouds and deep convective clouds and (b) average values and deviations of cloud top temperature (Ttop) and glaciation temperature (Tg) of hail clouds and deep convective clouds. Blue and green solid lines and shaded areas in (a) represent the average of the median re and its range at the same levels of temperature for hail clouds and deep convective clouds, respectively. The dots and squares in (b) represent the average values of Tg and Ttop for the same type of cloud, respectively, and solid lines represent the variation range of Tg and Ttop and the variation range of reg and retop

    图  2  陕西、山东、贵州和新疆冰雹云TtopTg均值和偏差分布,图中圆点和菱形点分别表示各地所有个例TgTtop的平均值,实线表示TgTtop的变化范围及对应regretop的变化范围

    Figure  2.  Average values and deviations of Ttop and Tg of hail clouds at Shaanxi, Shandong, Guizhou, and Xinjiang. The circle and diamond represent the average values of Tg and Ttop for all cases in each region, while the lines represent the variation range of Tg and Ttop and the variation range of reg and retop

    图  3  2019年8月16日13:30~17:30冰雹云(a)Tre分布及(b)TtopTg随时间的变化

    Figure  3.  Temporal evolution of (a) Tre profiles and (b) Ttop and Tg of hail clouds from 1330 BJT (Beijing time) to 1730 BJT on August 16, 2019

    图  4  5·23冰雹(a)11:38、(b)12:19、(c)13:38和(d)16:00卫星云微物理合成图(Lensky and Rosenfeld,2008),绿色圆点为降雹地点,红线为11:00~17:00 8 km高度前向气流轨迹,红色星号为卫星预警信号,下同

    Figure  4.  Day microphysical composition(Lensky and Rosenfeld,2008)at (a) 1138 BJT, (b) 1219 BJT, (c) 1338 BJT, and (d) 1600 BJT on May 23, 2020. Purple lines represent the forward trajectory at the height of 8 km from 1100 BJT to1700 BJT, the red hexagram represents an early warning from the satellite, and the green circle represents the hail events, the same below

    图  5  2019年8月16日冰雹(a)12:45、(b)16:15、(c)17:30和2020年5月21日(d)13:45、(e)14:30、(f)17:34及2020年6月24日(g)12:00、(h)13:23、(i)18:00卫星云微物理合成图

    Figure  5.  Day microphysical composition at (a) 1245 BJT, (b) 1615 BJT, and (c) 1730 BJT on August 16, 2019; (d) 1345 BJT, (e) 1430 BJT, and (f) 1734 BJT on May 21, 2020; and (g) 1200 BJT, (h) 1323 BJT, and (i) 1800 BJT on June 24, 2020

    表  1  2019年8月16日不同时次冰雹云的TtopTgretopreg

    Table  1.   Ttop, Tg, retop, and reg of hail clouds at different times on August 16, 2019

    时间Ttop/°CTg/°Cretop/μmreg/μm
    13:30−25−234040
    14:00−24−214040
    14:30−39−2639.840
    15:00−47−284040
    16:00−48−403132.1
    16:30−49−4028.130.9
    17:00−50−4032.529.1
    17:30−56−4034.329.3
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  5·23冰雹地面降雹实况和卫星预警

    Table  2.   Early warning time for hail clouds from FY-4A in comparison with the actual event time on May 23, 2020

    序号降雹开始时间降雹地点卫星预警
    初现时间
    时间提前量
    /min
    备注
    112:00烟台市  11:3822吻合
    212:40济南钢城区12:1921吻合
    312:40淄博博山区12:1921吻合
    413:00淄博沂源县12:1941吻合
    513:00临沂平邑县13:38−38漏报
    614:00烟台龙口市11:38142吻合
    714:40烟台蓬莱市11:38182吻合
    815:00临沂沂水县13:3882吻合
    917:00烟台栖霞市11:38322吻合
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  山东、陕西冰雹个例地面降雹实况和卫星预警

    Table  3.   Early warning time for the hail cloud from the FY-4A in comparison with the actual event time for different dates at Shandong and Shaanxi

    日期降雹开始时间降雹地点卫星预警初现时间时间提前量/min备注
    2019年8月16日14:00潍坊安丘市14:45−45漏报
    15:25潍坊诸城市14:4540吻合
    15:30临沂沂水县14:4545吻合
    15:30日照五莲县14:4545吻合
    16:57临沂莒南县14:45132吻合
    17:00日照莒县 14:45135吻合
    2020年5月21日14:01延安延长县13:4516吻合
    17:11渭南白水县14:30161吻合
    17:20铜川耀州区14:30170吻合
    17:21铜川印台区14:30171吻合
    2020年6月24日15:16延安吴起县13:23113吻合
    15:25延安宝塔区12:00205吻合
    16:36延安延川县12:00276吻合
    16:40延安富县 13:23197吻合
    16:51延安黄陵县13:23208吻合
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2021-01-21
  • 录用日期:  2021-07-08
  • 网络出版日期:  2021-08-17

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