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邹玮, 沈晗, 袁慧玲. 2022. 雷达资料同化对一次飑线过程的模拟影响[J]. 大气科学, 46(6): 1281−1299. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2105.20191
引用本文: 邹玮, 沈晗, 袁慧玲. 2022. 雷达资料同化对一次飑线过程的模拟影响[J]. 大气科学, 46(6): 1281−1299. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2105.20191
ZOU Wei, SHEN Han, YUAN Huiling. 2022. Simulation Impact of Radar Data Assimilation on a Squall Line Process [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 46(6): 1281−1299. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2105.20191
Citation: ZOU Wei, SHEN Han, YUAN Huiling. 2022. Simulation Impact of Radar Data Assimilation on a Squall Line Process [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 46(6): 1281−1299. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2105.20191

雷达资料同化对一次飑线过程的模拟影响

Simulation Impact of Radar Data Assimilation on a Squall Line Process

  • 摘要: 雷达资料同化能够改善强对流天气的预报,但是不同的模式方案配置会得到不同的结果。本文针对中国南部2018年3月4日一次飑线过程,以全球预报模式GFS分析场和预报场为背景场,采用中尺度区域气象预报模式ARPS 3DVAR系统同化多普勒雷达径向速度,用云分析处理反射率数据,考虑同化间隔、频次、云分析中不同参数调整,采用1 h同化窗口,设计不同同化方案,最后用WRF模式进行预报,研究雷达资料同化对飑线系统触发及发展机制的影响。结果表明,同化间隔过短时,由于模式热动力变量没有平衡产生虚假回波,同化间隔过长时,系统触发和发展的特征普遍偏弱;采用12 min间隔同化得到了最好的初始场,并且同化频次越高得到的降水预报结果越好。此外,ARPS云分析能大大改善初始场,减少模式自调整时间,其中湿度调整、温度调整、雨水调整及水汽调整对系统动力过程和水凝物初始场分布都有较大的影响,而垂直速度相关参数调整影响较小。

     

    Abstract: Radar data assimilation can improve the forecasts of severe convective weather, but different model configurations generate different results. This paper studies a squall line process that occurred in southern China on 4 March 2018. ARPS (Advanced Regional Prediction System) 3DVAR (three-dimensional variational) data assimilation system is applied to assimilate Doppler radar radial velocity, and cloud analysis is used to process radar reflectivity data. Considering the assimilation interval, frequency, and different parameter adjustments in cloud analysis, different assimilation schemes are designed by adopting a 1-h assimilation window. Using WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model forced by the GFS (Global Forecast System) analyses and forecasts, the influence of radar data assimilation on the triggering and development mechanism of the squall line system is investigated. The results show that when the assimilation interval is too short, false echoes are generated because of an imbalance in the model thermodynamic variables. When the assimilation interval is too long, the system triggering and development characteristics are generally weak. The best initial field is obtained using a 12-min interval assimilation, and the higher the assimilation frequency, the better the precipitation forecast results. In addition, ARPS cloud analysis can greatly improve the initial field and reduce the model spin-up time. Among the parameter adjustments, those of humidity, temperature, rainwater, and water vapor have a greater impact on the dynamic process of the system and the initial field distribution of the hydrometeors, while parameter adjustments related to vertical velocity have less impact.

     

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