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人工增雨效果物理检验方法的建立及应用

沙修竹 褚荣浩 黄毅梅

沙修竹, 褚荣浩, 黄毅梅. 2022. 人工增雨效果物理检验方法的建立及应用[J]. 大气科学, 46(3): 1−16 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2105.20237
引用本文: 沙修竹, 褚荣浩, 黄毅梅. 2022. 人工增雨效果物理检验方法的建立及应用[J]. 大气科学, 46(3): 1−16 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2105.20237
SHA Xiuzhu, CHU Ronghao, HUANG Yimei. 2022. Establishment and Application of a Physical Inspection Method for the Artificial Precipitation Enhancement Effect [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 46(3): 1−16 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2105.20237
Citation: SHA Xiuzhu, CHU Ronghao, HUANG Yimei. 2022. Establishment and Application of a Physical Inspection Method for the Artificial Precipitation Enhancement Effect [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 46(3): 1−16 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2105.20237

人工增雨效果物理检验方法的建立及应用

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2105.20237
基金项目: 中国气象局河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室应用技术研究项目KM201923、KM202135
详细信息
    作者简介:

    沙修竹,女,1990年出生,工程师,主要从事云降水与人工影响天气研究。E-mail: xiuzhu1990@163.com

  • 中图分类号: P481

Establishment and Application of a Physical Inspection Method for the Artificial Precipitation Enhancement Effect

Funds: Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique Research Project of China Meteorological Administration (Grants KM201923, KM202135)
  • 摘要: 本文针对基于多源探测数据的人工增雨效果物理检验,建立对比区选取的相似性度量系数(APC,Analogy Deviation-Pearson Correlation Coefficient),建立人工增雨效果物理检验的无量纲化指数PIDI(Physical Inspection Dimensionless Index)方法。结果表明:(1)人工增雨效果物理检验PIDI指数方法,能够实现以相似性度量系数APC最大程度削减增雨作业催化云体及降水的自然变率影响,以无量纲化处理方法综合多种具有量纲差异的云物理探测参数,最终以一个百分数变化率的数值形式综合度量多种云物理参数的整体变化趋势及程度。(2)应用PIDI方法对2014~2019年24架次飞机增雨作业进行增雨效果物理检验。人工增雨催化引起作业后3 h的云顶温度、云粒子有效半径、光学厚度、液水路径、组合反射率、≥30 dBZ回波面积、垂直累积液态含水量7项指标平均变化率3.4%~19.6%。18次作业的小时降水量变化率呈0~58.3%的增雨效果,6次作业的小时降水量变化率呈−37.5%~0的减雨效果。多数增雨作业引起的云物理参数变化明显小于降水变化。(3)具有增雨正效果的18次增雨作业,人工催化引起多数作业的云顶温度、组合反射率、垂直累积液态含水量呈增加趋势,多数作业的云粒子有效半径、光学厚度、液水路径呈减小趋势。(4)利用飞机增雨个例对比PIDI指数方法与K值方法异同。对于降水量变化趋势的检验二者具有一致性。二者差别在于PIDI指数方法能够反映人工催化引起的所有检验指标平均变化率。
  • 图  1  人工增雨效果物理检验PIDI指数方法技术路线

    Figure  1.  Technical route of the PIDI (Physical Inspection Dimensionless Index) method of physical inspection for artificial precipitation enhancement effect

    图  2  2014~2019年24架次增雨作业的(a1–a24)飞机航线叠加雷达回波平面和(b1–b24)垂直剖面图

    Figure  2.  Overlay of the airline and radar echo plane (a1–a24), vertical radar profile (b1–b24) of 24 aircraft precipitation enhancement operations from 2014 to 2019

    2  (续)

    2.  (Continued)

    图  3  2014~2019年(a1–a24)24架次飞机增雨作业飞机航线、0~3 h逐小时影响区和对比区的三维地理空间配置。红色实线为飞机航线;空中蓝色、橘黄色区域分别为影响区、对比区;地面蓝色、橘黄色区域分别为空中影响区、对比区在地面上的投影

    Figure  3.  Three-dimensional geospatial configuration of the airline and 0–3 h hourly influence area and contrast area of (a1–a24) the 24 aircraft precipitation enhancement operations. The solid red lines represent the airline; the blue and orange areas in the air represent the influence area and contrast area, respectively; the blue and orange areas on the ground represent the ground projection of the influence area and contrast area in the air, respectively

    3  (续)

    3.  (Continued)

    图  4  (a1–a12)日间个例的物理检验各指标PIDIi及综合指数PIDI。PIDI_ttop、PIDI_ref、PIDI_optn、PIDI_lwp、PIDI_CR、PIDI_30echo、PIDI_VIL、PIDI_rh分别表征影响区人工催化引起的云顶温度、云粒子有效半径、光学厚度、液水路径、组合反射率、≥30 dBZ回波面积、垂直累积液态含水量、小时降水量的变化率,PIDI表征影响区人工催化引起的前7项指标平均变化率

    Figure  4.  (a1–a12) PIDIi of each indicator and comprehensive index PIDI of physical inspection of diurnal cases. PIDI_ttop、PIDI_ref、PIDI_optn、PIDI_lwp、PIDI_CR、PIDI_30echo、PIDI_VIL、PIDI_rh represent the change rate of cloud top temperature, effective particle radius, optical thickness, liquid water path, combined reflectivity, ≥30dBZ echo area, vertical cumulative liquid water content, hourly precipitation of influence area due to artificial catalysis, respectively. PIDI represents the average change rate of the first seven indices of influence area due to artificial catalysis

    图  5  (a1–a12)夜间个例的物理检验各指标PIDIi及综合指数PIDI。PIDI表征影响区人工催化引起的PIDI_ttop、PIDI_CR、PIDI_30echo、PIDI_VIL四项指标平均变化率)

    Figure  5.  (a1–a12) PIDIi of each indicator and comprehensive index PIDI of the physical inspections of the night cases. PIDI represents the average change rate of PIDI_ttop, PIDI_CR, PIDI_30echo, and PIDI_VIL of the influence area due to artificial catalysis

    图  6  2017年10月1日(a)增雨作业PIDI综合指数与各指标K值的对比以及(b)PIDI_rh指数与小时降水量K值的对比。PIDI表示影响区人工催化引起的7项检验指标平均变化率;PIDI_rh表示影响区人工催化引起的小时降水量变化率;K_ttop、K_ref、K_optn、K_lwp、K_CR、K_30echo、K_VIL、K_rh分别表示影响区与对比区的云顶温度、云粒子有效半径、光学厚度、液水路径、组合反射率、≥30 dBZ组回波面积、垂直累积液态含水量、小时降水量的观测值比值;横坐标0表示催化结束时刻,0~3表示催化结束后的3小时时段

    Figure  6.  (a) Comparison of the PIDI and K value of each index; (b) comparison of the PIDI_rh and K value of the hourly precipitation of the precipitation enhancement operation on October 1, 2017. PIDI represents the average change rate of the seven indices of the influence area due to artificial catalysis; PIDI_rh represents the change rate of hourly precipitation of the influence area due to artificial catalysis; K_ttop、K_ref、K_optn、K_lwp、K_CR、K_30echo、K_VIL、K_rh represent the ratio of cloud top temperature, effective particle radius, optical thickness, liquid water path, combined reflectivity, ≥30 dBZ echo area, vertical cumulative liquid water content, hourly precipitation observed in the influence area to the contrast area, respectively; 0 on the x-coordinate represents the moment when seeding agent ends, 0–3 on the x-coordinate represents the 3 hours after seeding

    表  1  对比区选取指标(序号1~7)、PIDI指数构成指标(序号1~8)的参数说明

    Table  1.   Parameter description of the contrast area selection index (numbers 1–7) and the constitution index of PIDI

    序号探测方式探测或反演参数定义指导作用单位
    1FY-2E/2G或FY-4A静止气象卫星云顶温度(ttop)云顶所在高度的温度人工增雨云系播云温度窗的选择°C
    2 云粒子有效半径(ref)指假设云层在垂直方向均匀条件下云粒子的有效半径判断云中粒子大小,反映云可降水量μm
    3 云光学厚度(optn)云系在整个路径上云消光总和了解云系垂直方向云体厚实程度无量纲
    4 液水路径(lwp)云体单位面积上的垂直方向液水总量(或称柱液水量)了解垂直方向的云水丰沛程度mm
    5多普勒天气
    雷达
    组合反射率(CR)气象雷达接收周围一定范围内不同高度云层反射雷达波的比率反映雷达体扫对所有回波在对应格点上的最大反射率因子值dBZ
    6≥30 dBZ回波面积(30echo)组合反射率数值≥30 dBZ面积大小表示≥30 dBZ反射率的实际范围km2
    7垂直累积液态含水量(VIL)降水云体中某一确定面积的垂直柱体内液态水总量的分布反映将反射率因子数据转换成等价液态水值kg m−2
    8自动气象站小时降水量(rh)1小时内的总降水量反映云降水结果的宏观及直观特征mm
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  人工增雨作业过程合理性分析条件

    Table  2.   Reasonableness analysis condition of the artificial precipitation enhancement process

    指标要求
    作业条件(1)云系类型为层状云、层积混合云
    (2)天气条件(降水云系)和水汽输送等适合增雨作业
    作业时机(1)作业位于水汽含量、液态水含量充沛区域,作业区云层存在较强雷达回波
    (2)作业云体存在过冷层,且具有一定厚度
    (3)云顶温度<−10°C
    作业部位(1)作业催化处于播云窗,利于催化剂最大核化
    (2)航线设计合理,作业区具有一定面积且实现充分播撒
    催化剂量催化剂量合理且充足,实现充分播撒
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  2014~2019年24架次飞机增雨作业信息

    Table  3.   Information of the 24 aircraft precipitation enhancement operations in Henan from 2014 to 2019

    编号作业日期作业机型催化时段
    (北京时)
    催化时长
    /h
    催化平均
    高度/km
    催化剂量催化区域
    干冰
    /kg
    AgI烟条
    /根
    AgI焰弹
    /发
    AgI烟管
    /根
    1920140823运809:39~12:012.45.74816200/平顶山—许昌—漯河—南阳
    2020140823运814:58~17:362.66.5/19187/平顶山—许昌—漯河—周口—驻马店
    2120140826运815:21~17:362.36.51201120/平顶山—许昌—漯河—周口—驻马店
    5620160507运816:17~17:201.15.6/15193/洛阳—焦作—郑州
    5820160520运814:07~15:561.86.2/17195/许昌—平顶山—漯河—周口—驻马店
    6520170404运1209:45~11:261.73.8/13//平顶山—许昌
    6720170408运1210:39~11:421.14.5/13//洛阳—焦作
    6920170410运1209:45~11:211.64.5/13//洛阳—平顶山—南阳
    7220170924MA6014:02~17:103.15.3/20180/南阳
    7320170925MA6011:57~14:593.06.2/18194/南阳
    7520171001MA6011:10~12:000.86.2/26191/南阳
    7620171001MA6017:19~19:432.46.2/37175/南阳
    7820180124MA6009:50~11:502.04.2/16182/平顶山—南阳
    7920180124MA6015:20~16:401.34.2/16189/平顶山—漯河—南阳—驻马店
    8020180126MA6021:29~22:401.24.2/15192/南阳
    9020181105MA6009:10~10:591.84.0///33洛阳—南阳
    9120181105MA6014:55~17:252.54.3///37洛阳—三门峡—平顶山
    9320181106MA6016:42~17:300.84.3///36许昌—漯河—平顶山
    9420181107MA6015:11~17:352.44///35平顶山—南阳
    9720181203MA6016:02~18:122.24///35周口
    9920181210MA6016:18~18:152.02.7/24183/漯河—周口—驻马店
    10020181219MA6014:11~16:001.84.2/16187/南阳—驻马店
    10120181219MA6019:15~20:501.63.6/16177/驻马店—南阳—信阳
    10520190226MA6015:15~16:501.64.2/18//南阳
    注:烟条AgI含量每根125 g及每根35 g两种规格;焰弹AgI含量每发3.6 g;烟管AgI含量每根12.5 g。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  24次飞机增雨作业初选对比区APC系数、最佳对比区

    Table  4.   Coefficient APC of the primary contrast area, best contrast area of the 24 aircraft precipitation enhancement operations

    作业号APC系数值最佳对比区
    (APC最小值)
    作业号APC系数值最佳对比区
    (APC最小值)
    对比区1对比区2对比区3对比区4对比区1对比区2对比区3对比区4
    1913.1310.2510.288.57对比区4782.574.636.491.25对比区4
    2018.7333.6511.74/对比区3792.911.350.472.80对比区3
    214.262.441.84/对比区38026.181.1211.028.12对比区2
    56160.7045.478.39/对比区3904.246.6512.035.50对比区1
    5816.0126.02//对比区1914.416.043.98/对比区3
    6516.107.4014.0022.71对比区2934.845.185.007.95对比区1
    6721.9610.825.704.08对比区49410.9940.592.51/对比区3
    696.947.9514.9027.97对比区1971.5713.391.566.38对比区3
    722.411.361.224.59对比区39947.6711.452.282.02对比区4
    738.5534.9571.276.63对比区41001.868.882.15/对比区3
    7520.7835.5313.7758.23对比区310111.933.3930.1011.09对比区2
    767.497.6814.964.87对比区11056.624.60176.7023.16对比区2
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  5  具有正效果的18次增雨作业的各检验指标PIDIi正负值统计

    Table  5.   Statistics of the positive and negative values of PIDIi of the 18 precipitation enhancement operations with positive effects

    作业号PIDI_
    ttop
    PIDI_
    ref
    PIDI_
    optn
    PIDI_
    lwp
    PIDI_
    CR
    PIDI_
    30echo
    PIDI_
    VIL
    PIDI_
    rh
    19--++-+-+
    20-///++++
    56-///++++
    58+0--0-0+
    65+---++++
    67------++
    69+---++++
    72+///++++
    73+----+-+
    75--+----+
    76+///---+
    78+---++++
    79++--+-++
    80+///++-+
    90+--+++++
    910///---+
    94+///++++
    1010///---+
    正值作业数11122101110/
    负值作业数5888777/
    0值作业数2100101/
    注:“+”表示数值为正值,“-”表示数值为负值,“/”表示不作统计数据。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  6  PIDI方法与K值方法对比

    Table  6.   Comparison of PIDI method and K value method

    物理检验方法计算公式单位表征含义
    PIDI指数方法公式(9)和(10)PIDIi表征影响区人工催化引起的某指标变化率;
    PIDI表征影响区人工催化引起的所有检验指标平均变化率
    K值方法$ K=\displaystyle\frac{A}{B} $
    A为影响区某指标观测值;
    B为对比区某指标观测值
    影响区与对比区的某指标观测值比值
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2020-11-30
  • 录用日期:  2021-08-30
  • 网络出版日期:  2021-10-08

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