Analysis of the Causes of Atmospheric Fine Particle Pollution in Winter in the Hohhot–Baotou–Ordos Area of Inner Mongolia
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摘要: 利用气象模式WRF和中科院大气所自主发展的大气气溶胶与大气化学模式IAP-AACM对2016年冬季内蒙古中部呼包鄂地区大气细颗粒物（PM2.5）的典型污染过程进行了模拟分析。结果表明，呼包鄂地区的空气质量变化主要受大范围天气形势影响。污染累积阶段，500 hPa高度上该区域受阻塞高压或弱高压脊前平直的偏西气流控制，地面为弱高压或均压场，风速较小，边界层高度低，污染物不易扩散，且气温和相对湿度较高，利于二次颗粒物生成；污染消散阶段，天气形势发生明显变化，550 hPa高度以下有强冷平流，地面易形成大风天气，利于污染物消散，伴随着冷空气的南下，下游地区的污染物也得到清除。呼包鄂区域PM2.5主要来源于本地排放，鄂尔多斯本地排放贡献大于60%，呼和浩特本地排放贡献大于80%，包头本地排放贡献达到90%，该区域空气质量的变化可以反映区域大气污染气象条件的变化。交叉相关分析发现，呼包鄂区域的PM2.5浓度与其下游的山西、河北、河南地区的PM2.5浓度具有高度的时间相关性，相位差在6～24小时。呼包鄂区域PM2.5污染的改善有赖于本地污染源的管控，该区域冬季空气质量变化可作为下游地区空气质量变化的前兆因子，有助于下游地区空气质量的预报预警。
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关键词:
- 呼和浩特—包头—鄂尔多斯 /
- IAP-AACM模式 /
- 污染成因 /
- 本地贡献 /
- 交叉相关分析
Abstract: Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model and the Aerosol and Atmospheric Chemistry Model developed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, several typical pollution episodes of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) over the Hohhot–Baotou–Ordos area of Inner Mongolia in the winter of 2016 were analyzed. The results indicated that the air quality changes in the Hohhot–Baotou–Ordos area were mainly affected by the large-scale synoptic pattern. At the stage of pollution accumulation, at 500 hPa, this area was controlled by the flat westerly airflow in front of the blocking high pressure or weak high-pressure ridge. At the ground level, this area was located in the weak high-pressure or uniform-pressure field. The low wind speed and the low height of the boundary layer were unfavorable to pollutant dispersion. Meanwhile, the air temperature and relative humidity were high, which were conducive to the formation of secondary particles. At the stage of pollution dissipation, the synoptic patterns had significantly changed. Below 550 hPa, strong cold advection occurred, causing gale weather on the ground, which was beneficial to pollutant elimination. Cold air moved southward, and pollutants over downstream areas were removed. Local emission was the main source of PM2.5 over the Hohhot–Baotou–Ordos area. Local emission accounted for over 60%, 80%, and 90% of the air pollution in Ordos, Hohhot, and Baotou, respectively. The change in the air quality of these regions can reflect the change in regional air pollution meteorological conditions. Cross-correlation analysis showed that the PM2.5 concentrations in Shanxi, Hebei, and Henan regions were correlated with those in Hohhot–Baotou–Ordos , with a phase difference of 6–24 hours. The improvement of PM2.5 pollution in Hohhot–Baotou–Ordos depended on the control of local source emissions. In winter, the air quality change in this region can serve as an indicator of the air quality change in the downstream region, which is helpful for the prediction and early warning of air quality in the downstream region. -
图 1 2016年1月SO2平均排放强度（单位：μg m−3 s−1）的区域分布（黑框为研究区域，黑圈代表呼包鄂三市位置）
Figure 1. The regional distribution of the average emission intensity of SO2 (units: μg m−3 s−1) in January 2016. The black box represents the study area, and the black circle represents the location of the Hohhot–Baotou–Ordos area
图 2 2015年12月30日至2016年1月31日呼包鄂地区空气质量指数（AQI），EP1至EP5代表5个污染过程
Figure 2. Changes in AQI in the Hohhot–Baotou–Ordos area from December 30, 2015, to January 31, 2016. EP1–EP5 represent five air pollution processes.
图 3 2016年1月呼包鄂地区站点PM2.5质量浓度观测值和模拟值对比，单位：μg m−3
Figure 3. Comparison of PM2.5 observation values and simulation values at six stations in the Hohhot–Baotou–Ordos area in January 2016, units: μg m−3
图 4 第一次过程（a、c）污染持续及（b、d）结束阶段06:00的500 hPa平均位势高度分布（左列）及地面气压分布（右列）。红色虚线为温度场，蓝色实线为位势高度）
Figure 4. (a) 500-hPa average geopotential height field (units: dagpm) of the EP1, (b) end stage, (c) surface pressure field (units: hPa, the same below) of duration, and (d) end stage at 0600 BJT (Beijing time). The red dotted line denotes the temperature field, and the blue solid line denotes the geopotential height
图 5 第二到五次过程（a–d）污染阶段06:00的500 hPa平均位势高度分布以及（e–h）对应的地面气压场分布（红色虚线为温度场，蓝色实线为位势高度）
Figure 5. The 500 hPa average geopotential height field of the second to fifth processes: (a–d) Pollution duration and end stage; (e–h) corresponding surface pressure fields at 6 o’ clock. The red dotted line denotes the temperature field, and the blue solid line denotes the geopotential height
图 6 2016年1月呼包鄂6个环境监测站点的气象要素的时间变化序列
Figure 6. Change chart of meteorological elements of six environmental monitoring stations in the Hohhot–Baotou–Ordos area in January 2016
图 7 五个污染过程持续期（左列）和结束期（右列）的PM2.5质量浓度（填色，单位：μg m−3）及风场（箭头，单位：m s−1）分布
Figure 7. PM2.5 concentration (shaded, units: μg m−3) and wind field (arrow, units: m s−1) distributions of five pollution processes: Duration period (left column); end period (right column)
图 8 2016年1月12～24日呼和浩特地区的（a）垂直速度剖面图（单位：m s−1）和（b）PM2.5的垂直浓度分布（单位：μg m−3）。1月12～17日是第三次过程，1月18～21日是第四次过程
Figure 8. Distributions of (a) vertical velocity profile (units: m s−1) and (b) vertical concentration of PM2.5 (units: μg m−3) in Hohhot from January 12 to 24, 2016. Among them, 12–17 January indicate the third process, and 18–21 January indicates the fourth process
图 9 2016年1月呼包鄂地区六个环境监测站点的风玫瑰图叠加PM2.5浓度
Figure 9. Wind rising maps of six environmental monitoring stations in the Hohhot–Baotou–Ordos area in January 2016 superimposed with PM2.5 concentration, with measured values on the left and simulated values on the right
图 10 2016年1月内蒙古呼包鄂对6个站点PM2.5浓度的贡献，黑线为各站点PM2.5月平均浓度（其他地区指的是呼包鄂以外的地区）
Figure 10. Contribution of the Hohhot–Baotou–Ordos area to the PM2.5 concentration of six stations in January 2016. The black line is the monthly average PM2.5 concentration of each station (districts other than Hohhot–Baotou–Ordos)
图 11 河北中南部地区、山西地区、河南地区、内蒙古地区4个污染过程的PM2.5小时平均浓度的时间变化
Figure 11. Variation in the PM2.5 hourly mean concentration of four pollution processes in South Central Hebei, Shanxi, Henan, and Inner Mongolia
表 1 模拟的气象要素与观测的对比统计参数
Table 1. Comparative statistical parameters between simulated meteorological elements and observations
城市 2 m气温 2 m相对湿度 气压 10 m风速 NMB RMSE r NMB RMSE r NMB RMSE/hPa r NMB RMSE/m s−1 r 包头 1.5% 4.4°C 0.94 −12.7% 16.9% 0.56 2.4% 22.1 0.97 −13.2% 1.2 0.58 鄂尔多斯 −0.8% 2.6°C 0.96 −4.9% 10.1% 0.62 0.3% 2.8 0.94 −12.7% 1.0 0.66 呼和浩特 −1.6% 4.8°C 0.92 8.0% 12.4% 0.51 −3.3% 30.1 0.94 −8.3% 1.3 0.70 注：NMB：标准化平均偏差；RMSE：均方根误差；r：相关系数 
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