夏季热带大西洋海温变化对华南前汛期降水的影响

覃皓; 伍丽泉; 何慧

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2108.21108

夏季热带大西洋海温变化对华南前汛期降水的影响

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2108.21108

覃皓^1,,
伍丽泉^{2, 3},
何慧^2, ,

1.
广西壮族自治区气象台, 南宁530022
2.
广西壮族自治区气候中心, 南宁530022
3.
广西壮族自治区气象灾害防御技术中心, 南宁530022

基金项目: 广西重点研发计划项目桂科AB21075008，广西自然科学基金项目2020GXNSFAA159092，国家自然科学基金项目42065004，广西壮族自治区气象局短时临近天气预报技术创新团队项目

详细信息

作者简介:
覃皓，男，1991年出生，硕士，工程师，主要从事天气、气候诊断分析及机理研究。E-mail: 289055112@qq.com

通讯作者:
何慧，E-mail: hi.hehui@163.com

中图分类号: P461
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- 文章访问数: 332
- HTML全文浏览量: 53
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-06-26
- 录用日期: 2021-10-22
- 网络出版日期: 2022-11-17

Impact of the Summer Tropical Atlantic Sea Temperature on the First Rainy Season Precipitation in South China

Hao QIN^1
,,
Liquan WU^{2, 3},
Hui HE^{2
, ,}

1.
Guangxi Meteorological Observatory, Nanning 530022
2.
Guangxi Climate Center, Nanning 530022
3.
Guangxi Meteorological Disaster Prevention Technology Center, Nanning 530022

Funds: Key Development Program Program of Guangxi (Grant GuiKeAB21075008), Natural Science Foundation of Guangxi (Grant 2020GXNSFAA159092), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 42065004), Severe Convection Weather Nowcasting Technology Innovation Team Foundation of Guangxi Meteorological Service

摘要

摘要: 利用1979～2019年全国160站逐月降水资料、Hadley中心海表面温度资料、NOAA的向外长波辐射资料以及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料，结合相关分析、信息流以及合成分析方法，分析了夏季热带大西洋海温变化对华南前汛期降水的影响。结果表明：前一年夏季热带大西洋海温升高（降低）在一定程度上导致了华南前汛期降水的减少（增多）。关键区（10°S～5°N，35°W～10°E）海温偏暖增强了Walker环流导致赤道太平洋下沉辐散增强，造成赤道中西部太平洋上空的东风异常，在海气相互作用下促进了随后秋冬季La Niña的发展。海温负异常时形势则大致相反，促进了El Niño的发展。冬季太平洋La Niña（El Niño）发展到最盛期，西太平洋的对流增强（减弱）在其北侧低对流层激发出异常气旋（反气旋）。直到第二年的前汛期，仍存在残余的海温异常形势，这一方面使得西北太平洋异常气旋（反气旋）依然维持，有利于西太平洋副热带高压减弱东退（加强西伸），减少（增多）了南海水汽向华南的输送；另一方面有利于热带地区对流活跃（抑制）从而增强（减弱）了局地Hadley环流，造成华南地区为下沉（上升）运动异常，抑制（增强）了对流。除此之外，赤道东太平洋的海温负（正）异常激发了指向北美洲的类太平洋—北美波列，北大西洋的海温异常在其基础上进一步激发了向下游传播的欧亚波列，使得欧亚中高纬呈现负（正）—正（负）—负（正）的位势高度异常特征，不利于（有利于）冷空气南下影响华南，最终造成前汛期降水负（正）异常。
- 热带大西洋海温 /
- 前汛期降水 /
- 因果联系 /
- 影响
Abstract: The impact of summer tropical Atlantic sea temperature (TAST) on the first rainy season precipitation in South China (FRSP) is investigated using monthly precipitation data from 160 stations in China, Hadley Center sea surface temperature (SST) data, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data, and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1979 to 2019. Correlation analysis and information flow theory indicate that a rise (reduction) in the previous summer TAST partially accounts for an increase (decrease) in FRSP. The SST increases in the critical zone (35°W–10°E, 10°S–5°N) may amplify the Walker circulation and produce abnormal subsidence across the Pacific, resulting in an easterly wind anomaly throughout the central and western equatorial Pacific during the summer. The ocean–atmosphere interactions aided in the formation of La Niña in the fall and winter that followed. The same forces govern the negative SST anomaly but in the opposite direction, which is favorable for the growth of El Niño. When the La Niña (El Niño) reaches its height in the northern hemisphere, convection heating intensifies (or is inhibited) in the western Pacific, triggering atypical cyclones (anticyclones) in the lower troposphere to its north. The anomalies persist until the first rainy season of the second year, resulting in the persistence of abnormal cyclones (anticyclones), which, on the one hand, contribute to the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) weakening and eastward retreating (strengthening its westward extension), thereby reducing (increasing) the transport of water vapor from the South. Thus, the WPSH reduces (increases) water vapor movement from the South China Sea to South China. On the other hand, in tropical regions, convective activity (suppression) is favorable to strengthening (weakening) the local Hadley circulation, resulting in the subsidence (ascent) anomaly in South China and suppressing (intensifying) convection. Additionally, the negative (positive) SST anomaly in the eastern Pacific energized a Pacific–North American-like wave train, and the SST anomalies in the North Atlantic energized the Eurasian (EU) wave train, resulting in negative (positive)– positive (negative) – negative (positive) geopotential height anomalies in the Eurasian mid-high latitudes region, which is unfavorable (favorable) for the cold air affecting South China.
- Tropical Atlantic sea temperature /
- First rainy season precipitation /
- Cause–effect relation /
- Impact

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图 1 华南15站分布

Figure 1. Distribution of 15 stations in South China

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图 2 1979～2019年（a）前一年夏季、（b）前一年秋季、（c）前期冬季和（d）前期春季海温与华南前汛期降水（FRSP）指数I_SC的相关系数分布。打点区域表示通过95%信度水平的显著性检验

Figure 2. Correlation coefficient distribution between the FRSP (First Rainy Season Precipitation in South China) index I_SC and previous (a) summer, (b) autumn, (c) winter, and (d) spring SST from 1979 to 2019. The dotted areas indicate the coefficients passing the significance test at a 95% confidence level

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图 3 1979～2019年（a）前一年夏季、（b）前一年秋季、（c）前期冬季和（d）前期春季海温对华南前汛期降水指数I_SC的信息流分布（单位：nats a⁻¹，nats为自然信息量单位）。打点区域表示通过95%信度水平的显著性检验

Figure 3. Distribution of information flow from the previous (a) summer, (b) autumn, (c) winter, and (d) spring SST to the FRSP index I_SC (units: nats a⁻¹, nats are the unit of natural information) from 1979 to 2019. The dotted areas denote values that pass the 95% confidence level significance test

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图 4 1979～2019年前一年夏季关键区海温与华南前汛期降水的（a）相关系数以及（b）信息流（单位：nats a⁻¹）分布。打点区域表示通过95%信度水平的显著性检验

Figure 4. Distribution of (a) correlation coefficient between the FRSP and previous summer SST in the key region, (b) the information flow (units: nats a⁻¹) from preceding summer SST to FRSP from 1979 to 2019 (the dotted areas indicate the values passing significance test at 95% confidence level)

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图 5 华南前汛期降水指数I_SC（黑色实线）和前一年夏季关键区海温（SST）指数I_TA（蓝色虚线）的标准化序列。T_TA→SC表示I_TA对I_SC的信息流，单位：nats a⁻¹，R_TA-SC为两个指数的相关系数

Figure 5. Standardized time series for the FRSP index I_SC (black line) and the previous SST index for the summer critical area I_TA (blue dashed line). T_TA→SC indicates the information flow from I_TA to I_SC, units: nats a⁻¹, R_TA-SC denotes the correlation coefficient between I_TA and I_SC

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图 6 海温（a）偏暖年、（b）偏冷年以及（c）偏冷和偏暖年差值的华南前汛期（FRS）500 hPa位势高度异常合成（单位：gpm）分布。黄色实线和蓝色虚线分别为气候态和海温异常年的副高特征等值线，打点区域通过95%信度水平的显著性检验

Figure 6. Composite distribution of the 500 hPa geopotential height anomaly observed during FRS (First Rainy Season in South China) in (a) warm SST years, (b) cold SST years, and (c) the difference between cold and warm years (units: gpm). Yellow solid and blue dashed line indicate the climatological and the anomaly SST years composite 500 hPa geopotential height of 5880 gpm, respectively. The dotted areas indicate the coefficients passing significance test at 95% confidence level

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图 7 海温偏冷与偏暖年华南前汛期105°～120°E平均垂直剖面上温度的差值合成（单位：K）分布

Figure 7. Composite difference in vertical cross sections of temperature (shaded, units: K) averaged along 105°–120°E between cold and warm SST years during FRS

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图 8 海温（a）偏暖年、（b）偏冷年华南前汛期1000～300 hPa整层水汽通量（箭矢，单位：kg m⁻¹ s⁻¹）和水汽通量散度（填色，单位：g m⁻² s⁻¹）的异常合成分布

Figure 8. Composite distribution of water vapor flux (arrows, units: kg m⁻¹ s⁻¹) and divergence of water vapor flux divergence (shaded, units: g m⁻² s⁻¹) integrated from 1000 to 300 hPa anomaly during FRS in (a) warm SST years and (b) cold SST years

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图 9 海温偏暖年（左列）和偏冷年（右列）的SST异常合成（填色，单位：°C）分布：（a、e）夏季（JJA）；（b、f）秋季（SON）；（c、g）冬季（DJF）；（d、h）次年4～6月（AMJ）

Figure 9. Composite distribution of SST (shaded, units: °C) anomaly in (a–d) warm SST and (e–h) cold SST years: (a, e) Summer (JJA); (b, f) autumn (SON); (c, g) winter (DJF); (d, h) April–June of next year (AMJ)

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图 10 同图3，但为夏季热带大西洋海温对（a）同期以及（b）冬季Niño 3指数的信息流分布

Figure 10. Same as in Fig.3, but for distribution of information flow from summer TA SST to (a) JJA and (b) DJF Niño 3 index

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图 11 海温偏暖年（左列）和偏冷年（右列）的向外长波辐射OLR（填色，单位：W m⁻²）和850 hPa风场（箭矢，仅显示通过95%信度水平显著性检验的区域，单位：m s⁻¹）异常的合成分布：（a、e）夏季（JJA）；（b、f）秋季（SON）；（c、g）冬季（DJF）；（d、h）次年4～6月（AMJ）

Figure 11. Composite distribution of OLR (outgoing longwave radiation, shaded, units: W·m⁻²) and 850 hPa wind field (arrows, only indicate only locations that pass the 95% confidence level, units: m s⁻¹) anomaly in (a–d) warm SST and (e–h) cold SST years: (a, e) Summer (JJA); (b, f) autumn (SON); (c, g) winter (DJF); (d, h) April–June of next year (AMJ)

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图 12 海温（a）偏暖年和（b）偏冷年夏季5°S～5°N平均垂直剖面上纬圈环流（流线）的和垂直速度（填色，单位：10⁻² Pa s⁻¹）异常合成分布

Figure 12. Composite of vertical cross sections of zonal circulation (stream) and vertical velocity (shaded, units: 10⁻² Pa·s⁻¹) anomalies averaged along 5°S–5°N throughout the summer in (a) warm SST years and (b) cold SST years

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图 13 海温（a）偏暖和（b）偏冷年华南前汛期105°E～120°E平均垂直剖面上绝对湿度（填色，单位：g kg⁻¹）和水平散度（等值线，单位：10⁻⁷ s⁻¹）以及经圈环流（箭矢，单位：m s⁻¹）的异常合成分布

Figure 13. Composite of vertical cross sections of absolute humidity (shaded, units: g kg⁻¹), horizontal divergence (contours, units: 10⁻⁷ s⁻¹), and meridional circulation (arrows, units: m s⁻¹) anomalies averaged along 105°E –120°E during FRS in (a) warm SST and (b) cold SST years

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图 14 海温偏冷与偏暖年华南前汛期500 hPa位势高度（等值线，单位：gpm）、波作用通量（箭矢，单位：m² s⁻²）及其散度（填色，单位：10⁻⁶ m s⁻²）的差值合成分布

Figure 14. Composite difference of the 500-hPa geopotential height (contours, units: gpm) and wave-activity fluxes (arrows, units: m² s⁻²) and their divergence (shaded, units: 10⁻⁶ m s⁻²) between cold and warm SST years during FRSP

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表 1 海温偏暖、偏冷年华南前汛期降水异常的合成分析

Table 1. Composite of FRSP anomaly in the warm SST and cold SST years

	海温偏暖年		海温偏冷年
	降水异常/mm	降水异常百分率	降水异常/mm	降水异常百分率
区域平均	−74.5	−11%	43.7	6%
桂林	−114	−12%	8.6	0.9%
河池	−33.5	−5.3%	−22.9	−3.6%
百色	−52.4	−12.8%	−21.8	−5.3%
梧州	−91.6	−13.9%	64.2	9.8%
南宁	−76.4	−16.5%	−7.3	−1.6%
钦州	−155.2	−20.8%	123.8	16.6%
韶关	−149.3	−20.1%	66.3	8.9%
广州	−76.5	−9.2%	−22.7	−2.7%
东源	−132.1	−14.4%	169.1	18.4%
汕头	−116.3	−17.9%	43	6.6%
汕尾	−141.1	−17.1%	122.2	14.8%
阳江	−97.8	−9.2%	297.2	28%
海口	68.4	13.3%	−54.6	−10.6%
东方	−8.5	−3.6%	−46.1	−20%
琼海	58.3	11.4%	−63.3	−12.44%

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表 2 关键区海温对副高特征指数的信息流（T_TA→WPSH）

Table 2. Information flow from key region SST to WPSH indices (T_TA→WPSH)

	特征指数
	强度指数	面积指数	西伸脊点	脊线
T_TA→WPSH	−0.033*	−0.020*	−0.085*	−0.001
*表示通过95%信度水平的显著性检验。

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