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NUIST地球系统模式模拟ENSO对西北太平洋热带气旋活动的影响

吴启蒙 吴立广 曹剑

吴启蒙, 吴立广, 曹剑. 2022. NUIST地球系统模式模拟ENSO对西北太平洋热带气旋活动的影响[J]. 大气科学, 46(2): 251−262 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2109.20248
引用本文: 吴启蒙, 吴立广, 曹剑. 2022. NUIST地球系统模式模拟ENSO对西北太平洋热带气旋活动的影响[J]. 大气科学, 46(2): 251−262 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2109.20248
WU Qimeng, WU Liguang, CAO Jian. 2022. Impact of ENSO on Tropical Cyclone Activities in Northwest Pacific Simulated by the NUIST Earth System Model [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 46(2): 251−262 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2109.20248
Citation: WU Qimeng, WU Liguang, CAO Jian. 2022. Impact of ENSO on Tropical Cyclone Activities in Northwest Pacific Simulated by the NUIST Earth System Model [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 46(2): 251−262 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2109.20248

NUIST地球系统模式模拟ENSO对西北太平洋热带气旋活动的影响

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2109.20248
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目41730961、42005017
详细信息
    作者简介:

    吴启蒙,男,1994年出生,博士研究生,主要从事台风气候研究工作。E-mail: wuqimeng1994@qq.com

    通讯作者:

    吴立广,E-mail: liguangwu@fudan.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: P467

Impact of ENSO on Tropical Cyclone Activities in Northwest Pacific Simulated by the NUIST Earth System Model

Funds: National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 41730961, 42005017)
  • 摘要: 地球系统模式已经逐步成为研究热带气旋(TC)活动气候变化的重要工具之一,之前的研究发现南京信息工程大学地球系统模式(NESM)高分辨率版本可以较好地模拟全球海温分布及TC活动的气候特征。本研究进一步分析了NESM地球系统模式模拟西北太平洋TC活动的年际变化,并与1967~2016年观测的TC活动进行对比。NESM模式高分辨率版本能够较好地模拟西北太平洋平均海温及与ENSO事件联系的海温异常变化特点,对El Niño事件发生时西北太平洋TC的生成频数和路径分布的模拟较好,也能模拟El Niño年TC生成位置比La Niña年偏东的特征,但是未能模拟出TC平均生命周期和Niño3.4地区海温的相关性。并且模式模拟的La Niña年TC的生成位置偏东,主要原因是模拟La Niña年季风槽平均位置偏东。研究结果有助于进一步改进NESM模式和利用NESM模式研究TC活动。
  • 图  1  1967~2016年夏季和秋季(a)观测、(b)模拟的Niño3.4指数时间序列分布。红色实线和蓝色虚线分别为Niño3.4指数1倍和−1倍标准差数值(研究年份分类标准阈值)

    Figure  1.  Time series distribution of the Niño3.4 index (a) observed, (b) simulated in summer and autumn during 1967–2016. The solid red line and blue dashed line are the value of 1 and −1 standard deviation (threshold value of the classification standard for the study year) of the Niño3.4 index

    图  2  1967~2016年El Niño(La Niña)事件发生时西北太平洋夏季平均海温异常(阴影,单位:°C)与TC的生成位置(黑点)分布:(a)观测的El Niño;(b)模拟的El Niño;(c)观测的La Niña;(d)模拟的La Niña。黑色虚线为不同区域的分界线,点状阴影区域为通过5%显著性水平的区域

    Figure  2.  Average sea surface temperature anomalies (shadings, units: °C) in summer in the Northwest Pacific and the distribution of the TC generation locations (black dots) during the El Niño (La Niña) event during 1967–2016: (a) Observed El Niño, (b) simulated El Niño, (c) observed La Niña, (d) simulated La Niña. The black dashed lines denote the dividing lines of different areas; the dotted shadings represent the area passed the 5% significance level

    图  3  同图2,但为秋季的结果

    Figure  3.  As in Fig. 2, but for autumn results

    图  4  1967~2016年夏季(a)观测、(b)模拟的TC年平均生成位置。红色正方形表示El Niño年TC的平均生成位置,蓝色六边形表示La Niña年TC的平均生成位置,黑点表示其他年份TC的平均生成位置

    Figure  4.  Annual average generation location of TCs (a) observed, (b) simulated in summer during 1967–2016. The red squares represent the average generation positions of TCs in El Niño years, the blue hexagons represent the average generation positions of TCs in La Niña years, and the black dots represent the average generation positions of TCs in the other years

    图  5  同图4,但是为秋季的结果

    Figure  5.  As in Fig. 4, but for autumn results

    图  6  1967~2016年TC平均生命周期和Niño3.4地区海表面温度异常的相关性:(a)观测;(b)模拟。黑点表示不同年份的结果,虚线为一元线性回归拟合线,其中观测相关系数通过5%的显著性水平

    Figure  6.  Correlation between the TC average lifespan and sea surface temperature anomalies in Niño3.4 area during 1967–2016: (a) Observation; (b) simulation. The black dots represent results of different years; the dashed line is the one-variable linear regression line; the correlation coefficient of the observation passed the 5% significance level

    图  7  1967~2016年El Niño(La Niña)事件发生时西北太平洋夏季TC路径频数分布:(a)观测的El Niño;(b)模拟的El Niño;(c)观测的La Niña;(d)模拟的La Niña

    Figure  7.  Frequency distribution of TC paths in summer in Northwest Pacific during the El Niño (La Niña) event during 1967–2016: (a) Observed El Niño; (b) simulated El Niño; (c) observed La Niña; (d) simulated La Niña

    图  8  同图7,但是为秋季的结果

    Figure  8.  As in Fig. 7, but for autumn results

    图  9  1967~2016年(a、c)观测的、(b、d)模拟的La Niña事件发生时西北太平洋海表温度异常(阴影、等值线,单位:°C)、850 hPa平均风场(箭头,单位:m s−1):(a、b)夏季;(c、d)秋季。黑色实线为季风槽槽线

    Figure  9.  Sea surface temperature anomalies (shadings and contours, units: °C), 850-hPa average wind (arrows, units: m s−1) in the Northwest Pacific during the La Niña event (a, c) observed, (b, d) simulated in summer during 1967–2016: (a, b) Summer; (c, d) autumn. The solid black lines represent the monsoon trough lines

    表  1  1967~2016年夏季和秋季观测和模拟的El Niño(La Niña)典型年的分类结果

    Table  1.   Classification results of El Niño (La Niña) typical years observed and simulated in summer and autumn during 1967–2016

    观测模拟
    强暖年弱暖年正常年弱冷年强冷年标准差强暖年弱暖年正常年弱冷年强冷年标准差
    夏季1972、1982、1987、1997、2002、20151977、1991、1993、1994、2004、2009、20121967、1968、1969、1976、1979、1980、1981、1983、1986、1990、1992、1995、1996、2001、2003、2005、2006、2008、2013、2014、20161974、1978、1984、1985、1989、
    1998、2000、2007、2011
    1970、1971、1974、1978、1983、1984、1985、1995、2000、2011、20160.662、8、21、22、27、33、34、489、19、29、31、32、38、39、411、6、7、10、12、13、14、15、18、
    26、28、30、36、37、40、42、44
    3、5、16、20、43、45、47、494、11、17、23、24、25、35、46、500.77
    秋季1972、1982、1987、1997、2002、2009、20151969、1976、1977、1979、1986、
    1991、1994、2004、2006、2014
    1967、1968、1980、1981、1989、
    1990、1992、1993、1996、2001、
    2003、2005、2008、2012、2013
    1970、1971、1973、1975、1988、1999、20101973、1975、1988、1998、1999、2007、20100.998、21、27、30、33、34、39、482、14、18、22、28、38、41、443、5、6、7、9、12、13、15、19、
    20、26、29、31、32、36、37、42
    1、10、11、23、40、43、474、16、17、24、25、35、45、46、49、500.79
    注:标准差指的是不同年份Niño3.4指数的标准差。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  1967~2016年夏季和秋季观测和模拟的El Niño年和La Niña年西北太平洋不同子区域TC的生成频数

    Table  2.   Frequency of TC generation in different subregions of Northwest Pacific in El Niño and La Niña years observed and simulated in summer and autumn during 1967–2016

    西北太平洋子区域TC的生成频数
    夏季观测夏季模拟
    El Niño年La Niña年总数El Niño年La Niña年总数
    西北象限(120°~140°E,20°N以北)61117191736
    东北象限(140°E~180°,20°N以北)41014111021
    西南象限(120°~140°E,20°N以南)19113011920
    东南象限(140°E~180°,20°N以南)30131231437
    总数5933926450114
    秋季观测秋季模拟
    El Niño年La Niña年总数El Niño年La Niña年总数
    西部区域(120°~140°E)12334593645
    东部区域(140°E~180°)28937152742
    总数404282246387
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  1967~2016年夏季、秋季的观测、模拟的El Niño年和La Niña年TC平均生成位置的平均偏差

    Table  3.   The mean deviations of the average generation positions of TCs in El Niño and La Niña years observed and simulated in summer and autumn during 1967–2016

    El Niño年(观测)La Niña年(观测)El Niño年(模拟)La Niña年(模拟)
    纬度偏差经度偏差纬度偏差经度偏差纬度偏差经度偏差纬度偏差经度偏差
    夏季−2.6°6.7°3.4°−3.8°−0.3°4.8°−0.8°−2.2°
    秋季−0.4°8.8°1.3°−8.8°−0.3°5.3°0.0°−6.4°
    注:加粗的数字表示通过5%显著性水平的t检验。
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2020-12-23
  • 录用日期:  2021-11-25
  • 网络出版日期:  2021-12-06
  • 刊出日期:  2022-03-16

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