Relationship between February–March Tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly and Onset Date of Spring Soaking Rain in Northeast China
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摘要: 利用1961～2019年中国东北地区测站逐日降水资料、美国国家环境预报中心/大气研究中心的月平均再分析资料、NOAA重构的月平均海温和向外长波辐射资料，采用统计诊断方法，从年际时间尺度上分析了东北春季透雨早晚环流特征和前期海温，尤其是热带印度洋海温强迫的联系。结果表明：春季透雨日期与4月降水量的变化具有显著的一致性，典型透雨偏早年的开始时间集中在4月中下旬，偏晚年的开始时间集中在5月中下旬；4月东北亚上空500 hPa位势高度场上，若呈自西向东的“− +”异常环流分布，东北地区以偏南风和气旋性环流为主，有利于水汽输送，春季透雨开始偏早，反之，春季透雨开始偏晚；2～3月热带印度洋暖海温异常是中国东北地区春季透雨偏早的重要稳定影响源之一，其可能机制是，若热带印度洋全区一致海温模态呈正位相，有利于4月西北太平洋地区呈异常反气旋，东北亚地区500 hPa环流异常类似春季透雨偏早年形势，东北地区位于200 hPa西风急流出口区右侧，垂直上升运动增强，呈现出多雨形势。Abstract: We analyzed the climatic characteristics of early and late years of spring soaking rain (SSR) in Northeast China (NEC) and the relationship with sea surface temperature (SST) especially the tropical Indian Ocean SST forcing from the interannual time scale on the basis of the daily precipitation data from 1961 to 2019 at stations in NEC, monthly mean data of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/ National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis, sea surface temperature (SST) data reconstructed using NOAA, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data using statistical diagnostic methods such as causal analysis, correlation analysis and regression analysis. Results showed that the onset date of SSR and April precipitation were considerably consistent. The onset date of typical SSR was concentrated in mid–late April during the early years (1964, 1968, 1969, 1979, 1983, 1988, 1990, 1991, 1999, 2002, 2005, 2010, 2013, 2015, 2016) and in mid–late May during late years (1965, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1985, 1986, 1989, 1993, 1994, 1997, 2001, 2003, 2006, 2014, 2017, 2019). If 500-hPa geopotential height fields over Northeast Asia in April showed a “− +” anomalous circulation distribution from west to east with southerly winds and cyclonic circulation dominating in Northeast Asia, which were conducive to water vapor transport, SSR started early, and vice versa. The warm sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the tropical Indian Ocean during February–March was one of the important sources of stable influence in the early years of the SSR in NEC. The possible impact mechanism was that the Indian Ocean Basin warming (IOBW) in a positive phase was favorable to the anomalous anticyclone in Northwest Pacific during April and the 500-hPa atmospheric circulation anomaly over Northeast Asia was similar to that of the early years of SSR. The NEC was situated in the right of the 200-hPa westerly jet stream exit area with an enhanced vertical upward motion, resulting in increased precipitation.
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Key words:
- Northeast China /
- Spring soaking rain /
- Interannual /
- Circulation /
- Indian Ocean basin warming
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图 1 中国东北地区109个站点地理分布示意图
Figure 1. Spatial distribution of 109 meteorological stations in Northeast China (NEC)
图 2 （a）东北春季透雨开始日期的时间序列；（b）东北春季透雨开始日期与4月、5月及春播期降水量的标准化时间序列（去除线性趋势）
Figure 2. (a) Time series of the onset date of spring soaking rain (SSR) in NEC; (b) standardized time series (with linear trend removed) of the onset date of SSR as well as precipitation during April, May, and April–May in NEC
图 3 中国东北春季透雨偏早年和偏晚年对应的4月总降水量（单位：mm）合成差值场。红点表示通过90％信度检验的站点
Figure 3. Composite difference field of the total precipitation (units: mm) during April in early and late SSR years. Red dots denote statistical significance at the 90% confidence level
图 4 中国东北春季透雨偏早年和偏晚年对应的4月（a）200 hPa纬向风（单位：m s−1）、（b）500 hPa位势高度（单位：gpm）、（c）850 hPa流场（单位：m s−1，填色区域代表经向风）、（d）整层水汽通量散度（单位：10−5 kg m−2 s−1）合成差值场。黑点表示通过90％的信度检验
Figure 4. Composite difference field of zonal wind at (a) 200 hPa (units: m s−1), (b) geopotential height at 500h Pa (units: gpm), (c) flow field at 850 hPa (units: m s−1, color-filled indicates meridional wind) and (d) whole layer moisture flux dispersion (units: 10−5kg m−2 s−1）during April in the early and late SSR years. Dark dots denote statistical significance at the 90% confidence level
图 5 东北春季透雨开始日期与（a）前秋、（b）前冬、（c）春季海温场的相关分布。黑点表示通过90％的信度检验
Figure 5. Correlation distributions of the onset date of SSR in NEC with SST field during (a) autumn, (b) winter, (c) spring. Dark dots denote statistical significance at the 90% confidence level
图 6 中国东北春季透雨开始日期与月际NINO4-I和IOBW-I间的反相关系数。虚线表示通过90％、95％、99％的信度检验
Figure 6. Anticorrelation coefficients between the onset date of SSR in NEC and monthly NINO4-I (Niño4 SSTA Index) and IOBW-I (Indian Ocean Basin-Wide Index). Dashed lines denote statistical significance at the 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence level
图 7 1961～2019年（a）2～3月IOBW-I和东北春季透雨开始日期的标准化时间序列；（b）2～3月IOBW-I与东北透雨日期的11年滑动反相关系数。虚线：相关系数的90％信度检验
Figure 7. (a) Standardized time series of February–March IOBW-I and the onset date of SSR in NEC; (b) 11-year slipping anticorrelation coefficients between February–March IOBW-I and the onset date of SSR (dashed line denote statistical significance at the 90% confidence level) during 1961–2019
图 8 1961～2019年2～3月海表温度异常（单位：°C）的合成：（a）透雨偏早年；（b）透雨偏晚年。打点区表示通过90％的信度检验
Figure 8. Composite maps of February–March SSTAs (units: °C) for the (a) early and (b) late years of SSR in NEC during 1961–2019. Dark dots denote statistical significance at the 90% confidence level
图 9 1961～2019年2～3月IOBW-I和东北春季透雨开始日期的（a）相关关系和（b）因果关系（从IOBW-I到透雨日期的信息流结果）。红点表示通过90％信度检验的站点
Figure 9. (a) Correlations and (b) causalities (information flowing from IOBW-I to SSR) between February and March IOBW-I and the onset date of SSR in NEC during 1961–2019. Red dots denote statistical significance at the 90% confidence level
图 10 1961～2019年2～3月IOBW-I与4月（a）200 hPa纬向风（单位：m s−1）、（b）500 hPa位势高度（单位：gpm）、（c）850 hPa流场（单位：m s−1，填色区域代表经向风）、（d）整层水汽通量散度（单位：10−5 kg m−2 s−1）的回归分析。黑点表示通过90％的信度检验
Figure 10. Linear regression of April (a) 200 hPa latitudinal wind (units: m s−1), (b) 500 hPa potential height (units: gpm), (c) 850 hPa flow field (units: m s−1, color-filled indicates meridional wind), and (d) whole layer moisture flux dispersion (units: 10−5 kg m−2 s−1) against the February–March IOBW-I during 1961–2019. Dark dots denote statistical significance at the 90% confidence level
图 11 1961～2019年2—3月IOBW-I与（a）4月向外长波辐射（OLR，单位：W m−2）和（b）500 hPa 垂直速度（ω，单位：10−2 Pa s−1）的回归分析。黑点表示通过90％的信度检验
Figure 11. Linear regression of (a) the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR, units: W m−2) in April and (b) the vertical velocity at 500 hPa (ω, units: 10−2 Pa s−1) against the February–March IOBW-I during 1961–2019. Dark dots denote statistical significance at the 90% confidence level
图 12 1961～2019年2～3月IOBW-I与4月（a）沿47.5°N剖面和（b）沿127.5°E剖面垂直速度（单位：10−2 Pa s−1）的回归分析。白点表示通过90％的信度检验
Figure 12. Linear regression of the vertical velocity（10−2 Pa s−1）in April along (a) the 47.5°N profile and (b) the 127.5°E profile against the February–March IOBW-I during 1961–2019. (White dots denote statistical significance at the 90% confidence level
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