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江洁, 周天军, 张文霞. 2022. 近60年来中国主要流域极端降水演变特征[J]. 大气科学, 46(3): 707−724. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2111.21187
引用本文: 江洁, 周天军, 张文霞. 2022. 近60年来中国主要流域极端降水演变特征[J]. 大气科学, 46(3): 707−724. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2111.21187
JIANG Jie, ZHOU Tianjun, ZHANG Wenxia. 2022. Temporal and Spatial Variations of Extreme Precipitation in the Main River Basins of China in the Past 60 Years [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 46(3): 707−724. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2111.21187
Citation: JIANG Jie, ZHOU Tianjun, ZHANG Wenxia. 2022. Temporal and Spatial Variations of Extreme Precipitation in the Main River Basins of China in the Past 60 Years [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 46(3): 707−724. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2111.21187

近60年来中国主要流域极端降水演变特征

Temporal and Spatial Variations of Extreme Precipitation in the Main River Basins of China in the Past 60 Years

  • 摘要: 在全球增暖背景下,中国极端降水事件及洪涝、干旱等次生灾害近年来频发,严重影响生态系统、人民的生产生活和社会经济发展。本文基于气候变化检测和指数专家组(ETCCDI)定义的10个降水指数,利用中国台站日降水资料,系统分析了1961~2017年中国及九大流域片降水变化情况,并利用空间场显著性检验考察不同降水指数的显著变化是否与外强迫作用有关。结果表明,各降水指数的变化具有区域性特征。整体而言,全国范围内平均降水、降水强度、极端强降水和连续性强降水呈增强趋势的台站数多于呈减弱趋势的台站数,呈显著增强趋势的台站占比不可能仅由气候系统内部变率引起,还受到外强迫的影响。此外,中国大部分站点连续干旱日数(CDD)减少,观测中CDD呈显著减弱趋势的台站占比也与外强迫作用有关。九大流域片中,内陆河片能够观测到平均降水、降水强度、极端强降水和连续性强降水的增多以及连续干旱日数的减少,有洪涝灾害增多的风险,且上述变化可归因为外强迫的作用。长江流域片、东南诸河片和珠海流域片平均降水、极端强降水和连续性强降水均增强,其中强降水的变化与外强迫作用有关。西南诸河片极端强降水增强,但大部分站点CDD呈增加趋势,有干旱增加的风险。黄河流域片、海河流域片、淮河流域片及松辽河流域片的大部分站点及区域平均结果中,降水指数多无显著变化趋势。增暖背景下,不同流域片呈现出不同的降水变化特征,将面临不同的气候灾害风险。

     

    Abstract: As a consequence of global warming, China has experienced increasing extreme precipitation events and secondary disasters such as floods and droughts, which have had significant effects on the ecosystem, production, life, and society. This study uses daily station precipitation records to systematically analyze the long-term trends in precipitation over China and nine river basins from 1961 to 2017. It uses ten precipitation indices specified by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). In addition, the detectability of the trends in several precipitation characteristics is also examined based on the field significance test. The findings indicate that the extreme precipitation over China shows obvious regional features. The number of stations showing increasing trends in mean precipitation, precipitation intensity, extreme heavy precipitation, and continuous heavy precipitation exceeds the decreasing trends. However, the observed percentage of stations with significant increasing trends differs statistically from the internal climate variability but is influenced by the external forcings. Furthermore, for the majority of the station, the consecutive dry days (CDD) decreases, and the observed percentage of stations with significant decreasing trends is also related to the external forcing. Across the continental river basins, strengthened mean precipitation, precipitation intensity, extreme heavy precipitation, continuous heavy precipitation, and reduced CDD can be observed, which can be attributed to the influence of external forcings. Flood are becoming frequent in the continental. Strengthened mean precipitation and external force-related increase in heavy precipitation can be found across the Yangtze River, Pearl River, and southeastern river basin. The southwestern river basin has experienced an increase of extremely heavy precipitation, but there is a risk of increasing drought as the CDD lengthens for the majority of stations. Several precipitation indices and the area-averaged mean for the Yellow River, Haihe River, Huaihe River, and Songliao River basin. The various responses of precipitation characteristics to global warming suggest that the different river basins will experience a variety of climate disasters.

     

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