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植炫惠, 徐海明, 马静, 等. 2023. 华南冬季雾日年际变化特征及其与ENSO的关系[J]. 大气科学, 47(4): 1099−1112. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2202.21159
引用本文: 植炫惠, 徐海明, 马静, 等. 2023. 华南冬季雾日年际变化特征及其与ENSO的关系[J]. 大气科学, 47(4): 1099−1112. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2202.21159
ZHI Xuanhui, XU Haiming, MA Jing, et al. 2023. Interannual Variability of Winter Fog Days over Southern China and Its Relationship with ENSO [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 47(4): 1099−1112. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2202.21159
Citation: ZHI Xuanhui, XU Haiming, MA Jing, et al. 2023. Interannual Variability of Winter Fog Days over Southern China and Its Relationship with ENSO [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 47(4): 1099−1112. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2202.21159

华南冬季雾日年际变化特征及其与ENSO的关系

Interannual Variability of Winter Fog Days over Southern China and Its Relationship with ENSO

  • 摘要: 本文基于1979~2016年华南地区52个台站逐日雾观测数据和ERA5再分析资料等,采用EOF分解等多种统计方法,研究了ENSO对华南冬季雾日年际变化的影响,并进一步探讨了华南冬季雾日年际变化与ENSO关系的年代际转变。结果表明:(1)华南地区冬季雾日具有区域一致的变化特征,呈现出明显的年际变化和线性增加的趋势。在冬季,华南地区近地面层北风减弱,大气层结更加稳定,同时温度露点差降低,空气中水汽含量增加,为雾的形成提供了有利的背景场条件。(2)ENSO与华南地区冬季雾日的年际变化存在显著相关关系,在El Niño年的冬季,菲律宾海上空存在一个异常的反气旋环流,反气旋西侧的异常暖湿西南气流给华南地区带来充沛的水汽,有利于雾日的形成。La Niña年雾日的变化则与El Niño年相反。这种显著相关关系主要取决于大雾日数,而非轻雾日数。(3)ENSO与华南地区冬季雾日年际变化的关系在1996年前后出现明显年代际转折,在1979~1996年期间,两者相关性较弱,1997年之后相关性显著增强。这种关系的转变可能受到北大西洋年代际振荡(AMO)的调控。

     

    Abstract: The effects of ENSO on the interannual variability of winter fog days over southern China and the interdecadal variation of the relationship between them are examined using the EOF analysis and other statistical methods based on the observed daily fog data from 52 meteorological stations in southern China and ERA5 reanalysis data from 1979 to 2016. The results are shown as follows: (1) The winter fog days over southern China (WFDSC) exhibit a whole-region consistent pattern and display evident interannual variability and a significant increasing trend. The WFDSC is closely associated with a weaker northerly wind, a more stable atmosphere, and a decreasing TTd near the surface, which implies that the water vapor in air is increasing, providing favorable meteorological background fields for the preservation and growth of fog over southern China. (2) ENSO has a close association with the interannual variability of WFDSC, which is mostly determined by heavy fog days rather than light fog days. During El Niño winters, an anomalous anticyclone forms over the Philippine Sea, and the warm moist anomaly southwesterlies on the western flank of this anticyclone brings abundant water vapor to southern China, facilitating fog formation. During La Niña winters, there are almost opposite changes of fog days. (3) The interannual ENSO-WFDSC relationship shows a clear interdecadal change around 1996, with a low correlation during the period of 1979–1996 but a significant correlation after 1997. Further analysis reveals that this change in the relationship may be modulated by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).

     

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