气候态调整对华北冬、夏季气候监测的影响研究

李晓帆; 于长文; 龚志强; 封国林; 车少静; 李天宇

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2202.21200

气候态调整对华北冬、夏季气候监测的影响研究

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2202.21200

李晓帆^{1, 2,},
于长文^{1, 2},
龚志强^{3, 4, ,},
封国林³,
车少静^{1, 2},
李天宇^{5, 6}

1.
河北省气象与生态环境重点实验室/河北省气候中心, 石家庄050021
2.
中国气象局雄安大气边界层重点开放实验室, 雄安新区071800
3.
中国气象局国家气候中心开放实验室, 北京100081
4.
常熟理工学院电子与信息工程学院, 苏州215000
5.
牡丹江市气象局, 牡丹江157010
6.
吉林省气候中心, 长春130062

基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目2018YFA0606301，国家自然科学基金项目42075057、42275050，河北省气象局延伸期重要天气过程智能预测技术创新团队

详细信息

作者简介:
李晓帆，女，1992年出生，硕士，工程师，主要从事短期气候预测研究。E-mail: lxf_cma@163.com

通讯作者:
龚志强，E-mail: gongzq@cma.gov.cn

中图分类号: P466
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- 文章访问数: 448
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-10-30
- 录用日期: 2022-03-25
- 网络出版日期: 2023-01-12
- 刊出日期: 2023-05-15

Differences between Various North China Climatic Normals in Winter and Summer: A Study of Its Impact on Climate Monitoring

Xiaofan LI^{1, 2
,},
Changwen YU^{1, 2},
Zhiqiang GONG^{3, 4
, ,},
Guolin FENG³,
Shaojing CHE^{1, 2},
Tianyu LI^{5, 6}

1.
Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province/Hebei Climate Center, Shijiazhuang 050021
2.
China Meteorological Administration Xiong'an Atmospheric Boundary Layer Key Laboratory, Xiong'an New Area 071800
3.
Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081
4.
Department of Physics and Electronic Engineering, Changshu Institute of Technology, Suzhou 215000
5.
Mudanjiang Meteorological Bureau, Mudanjiang 157010
6.
Jilin Climate Center, Changchun 130062

Funds: National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant 2018YFA0606301), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 42075057, 42275050), Hebei Meteorological Bureau Innovative Team of the Intelligent Forecast of the Extended Range Important Weather Process

摘要

摘要: 本研究对比分析了不同气候态下，华北冬、夏季降水及气温的差异，分析了气候平均值的改变对历史极端事件监测的可能影响。研究结果发现，1991～2020年（简称气候Ⅱ态）的冬季和夏季的平均降水量均略多于1981～2010年（简称气候Ⅰ态），但接近或略少于1961～2020年的平均降水量，平均降水量逐年变化幅度冬季Ⅱ态小于Ⅰ态，夏季反之。气候Ⅱ态冬季降水空间分布不均，夏季较Ⅰ态呈“中部减少，东西增加”的分布型。冬季和夏季极端降水阈值Ⅱ态（0.86 mm和22.0 mm）较Ⅰ态（0.83 mm和21.6 mm）均略有提高，造成近60年华北大部基于Ⅱ态阈值的冬、夏季极端降水日数较Ⅰ态略减少。此外，气候Ⅱ态的华北冬、夏季平均气温均明显高于Ⅰ态，也高于1961～2020年平均值。Ⅱ态气温较Ⅰ态基本呈全区增加特征，但空间分布不均匀。冬季极端低温和夏季极端高温阈值Ⅱ态（−9.8°C和27.9°C）较Ⅰ态（−10.2°C和27.5°C）均有所有所提高，造成华北大部分地区基于Ⅱ态阈值的近60年冬季极端低温日数较Ⅰ态有所增加，夏季极端高温日数较Ⅰ态存在不同程度的减少。因此，新气候态下华北气温和降水均值，华北大部极端降水阈值和极端气温阈值均有所提高，造成气候监测中更容易出现气温偏低，降水偏少，历史极端事件监测中极端事件略减少的情况，在未来10年的气候监测预测业务中要充分考虑新气候态可能造成的影响。
- 华北 /
- 冬季 /
- 夏季 /
- 气候态差异
Abstract: This research compared and analyzed the precipitation and temperature differences in North China during winter and summer under different climate conditions to explore the characteristics and differences between various climate normals in this region and their impacts on regional climate monitoring. Then, we analyzed the impact of these average climatic changes on extreme historical events. Investigations revealed that although the average precipitation in winter and summer during 1991–2020 (climate state Ⅱ) was more than that during 1981–2010 (climate state I), it was lesser than that in 1961–2020. However, the annual variation of state Ⅱ was smaller than that of state Ⅰ in winter, whereas vice versa in summer. Furthermore, although the state Ⅱ climate precipitation of the different regions varied in winter, it decreased in the central area and increased in the eastern and western parts of North China in summer. Also, we observed that the average winter and summer extreme precipitation thresholds in North China were higher in state Ⅱ (0.86 and 22.0 mm) than in state Ⅰ (0.83 and 21.6 mm), causing several extreme precipitation days in winter and summer in most parts of North China for the past 60 years. This event, however, reduced corresponding to state Ⅱ than Ⅰ. Although the average winter and summer temperatures of state Ⅱ were significantly higher than those of state Ⅰ, they remained higher than the average winter and summer temperatures of 1961–2020, indicating that while state Ⅱ temperatures maintained the characteristic of being overall warmer than state Ⅰ, the change characteristics of the different regions varied. Conversely, the extremely low average winter temperature and the extremely high summer temperature threshold in state Ⅱ (−9.8°C and 27.9°C) exceeded those in state Ⅰ (−10.2°C and 27.5°C), causing several extremely low winter temperature days in most parts of North China corresponding to state Ⅱ for the past 60 years. While this event increased compared with state Ⅰ, the extremely high summer temperature days corresponding to state Ⅱ reduced to varying degrees compared with state Ⅰ. Overall, our investigations propose that applying new climate normals will increase the extreme precipitation and extreme temperature thresholds in most parts of North China, leading to more frequent low temperatures, less precipitation, and less extreme historical climate events in climate monitoring. Hence, the possible impact of the new climate normals on climate monitoring and prediction over the next decade should be fully considered.
- North China /
- Winter /
- Summer /
- Climate normals differences

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图 1 选取的华北逐日气象要素265个观测台站分布

Figure 1. Distributions of the selected 265 daily meteorological element observation stations in North China

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图 2 1961～2020年华北（a）冬季和（b）夏季平均降水量曲线（单位：mm）。灰色实线为1961～2020年平均降水量，蓝色实线为1981～2010年（气候Ⅰ态）平均降水量，红色实线为1991～2020年（气候Ⅱ态）平均降水量；aveⅠ为1981～2010年平均降水量，aveⅡ为1991～2020年平均降水量，ave 60 为1981～2020年平均降水量；S1为1981～2010年标准差，S2为1991～2020年标准差

Figure 2. The average (a) winter and (b) summer precipitation in North China from 1961 to 2020 (units: mm). Gray lines: the average precipitation between 1961 and 2020, blue lines: between 1981 and 2010 (climate state Ⅰ), and red lines: between 1991 and 2020 (climate state Ⅱ). Conversely, ave Ⅰ indicates the mean precipitation between 1981 and 2010, ave Ⅱ: between 1991 and 2020, and ave 60: between 1981 and 2020. S1 indicates the standard deviation for 1981–2010, S2: 1991–2020

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图 3 华北冬季降水量气候态分布（单位：mm）：（a）1991～2020年平均；（b）1991～2020年与1981～2010年差值（打点区通过90%显著性检验）；（c）冬季降水概率分布曲线

Figure 3. Climatic distribution of the winter precipitation in North China (units: mm): (a) Averages in 1991–2020; (b) differences between 1991–2020 and 1981–2010 (dotted areas indicate the 90% significance level); (c) probability distribution curve of winter precipitation

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图 4 同图3，但为夏季

Figure 4. As in Fig. 3, but for the distribution of summer

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图 5 1961～2020年华北降水异常概率分布；（a） 1961～2020年冬季相对于Ⅰ态出现负降水异常的概率；（b）同图（a），但为Ⅱ态；（c）图（b）与（a）的差值；（d）1961～2020年夏季相对于Ⅰ态出现正降水异常的概率；（e）同图（d），但为Ⅱ态；（f）图（e）与（d）的差值

Figure 5. The distribution of precipitation anomaly probabilities in North China from 1961 to 2020: (a) Probability of negative winter precipitation anomalies from 1961 to 2020 relative to state Ⅰ; (b) as in Fig. 5a, except relative to state Ⅱ; (c) difference between Fig. 5b and Fig. 5a; (d) probability of positive summer precipitation anomalies from 1961 to 2020 relative to state Ⅰ; (e) as in Fig. 5d, except relative to state Ⅱ; (e) difference between Fig. 5e and Fig. 5d

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图 6 华北冬季极端降水阈值气候态及1961～2020年平均极端降水日数分布：（a）气候Ⅰ态极端降水阈值（单位：mm）；（b）气候Ⅱ态极端降水阈值（单位：mm）；（c）Ⅱ态与Ⅰ态极端降水阈值的差（单位：mm）；（d）Ⅰ态下1961～2020年平均极端降水日数（单位：d）；（e）Ⅱ态下1961～2020年平均极端降水日数（单位：d）；（f）Ⅱ态与Ⅰ态下1961～2020年极端降水日数的差（单位：d）

Figure 6. The distribution of the extreme winter precipitation threshold in North China and the average number of extreme precipitation days from 1961 to 2020: (a) Extreme precipitation threshold for the climate in state Ⅰ (units: mm); (b) as in Fig. 6a, but for the climate in state Ⅱ; (c) extreme precipitation threshold difference between states Ⅱ and Ⅰ (units: mm); (d) the average number of extreme precipitation days from 1961 to 2020 relative to state Ⅰ (units: d); (e) as in Fig. 6d, but relative to state Ⅱ; (f) difference in the number of extreme precipitation days from 1961 to 2020 between states Ⅱ and Ⅰ (units: d)

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图 7 同图6，但为夏季

Figure 7. As in Fig. 6, but for the distribution of summer

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图 8 1961～2020年华北（a）冬季和（b）夏季平均气温曲线（单位：°C）。灰色实线为1961～2020年平均气温，蓝色实线为1981～2010年平均气温，红色实线为1991～2020年平均气温；aveⅠ为1981～2010年平均气温，aveⅡ为1991～2020年平均气温，ave 60 为1981～2020年平均气温；S1为1981～2010年标准差，S2为1991～2020年标准差

Figure 8. Average (a) winter and (b) summer temperatures in North China from 1961 to 2020 (units: mm). Gray lines: the average temperatures for 1961–2020, blue lines: 1981–2010, red lines: 1991–2020. Conversely, ave Ⅰ indicates the mean temperature for 1981–2010, ave Ⅱ: 1991–2020, and ave 60: 1981–2020. S1 indicates the standard deviation for 1981–2010, S2: 1991–2020

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图 9 华北冬季平均气温气候态分布（单位：°C）；（a）1991～2020年平均；（b）1991～2020年与1981～2010年差值（打点区通过95%显著性检验）；（c）冬季气温概率分布曲线

Figure 9. Climatic distribution of the winter temperatures in North China (units: ℃): (a) Averages from 1991–2020; (b) the difference between 1991–2020 and 1981–2010 (dotted areas indicate a 95% significance level); (c) probability distribution curve for the winter temperatures

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图 10 同图9，但为夏季

Figure 10. As in Fig. 9, but for the distribution of summer

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图 11 1961～2020年华北平均气温距平负异常概率分布：（a）1961～2020年冬季相对于Ⅰ态出现负气温异常的概率；（b）同图（a），但为Ⅱ态；（c）图（b）与（a）的差值；（d）1961~2020年夏季相对于Ⅰ态出现负气温异常的概率；（e）同图（d），但为Ⅱ态；（f）图（e）与（d）的差值

Figure 11. Negative temperature anomaly probability distributions in North China from 1961 to 2020: (a) Probability of negative winter temperature anomalies from 1961 to 2020 relative to state Ⅰ; (b) as in Fig. 11a, except relative to state Ⅱ; (c) difference between Fig. 11b and Fig. 11a; (d) probability of negative summer temperature anomalies from 1961 to 2020 relative to state Ⅰ; (e) as in Fig. 11d, except relative to state Ⅱ; (f) difference between Fig. 11e and Fig. 11d

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图 12 华北冬季极端低温阈值气候态及1961～2020年平均极端低温日数分布：（a）气候Ⅰ态极端低温阈值（单位：°C）；（b）气候Ⅱ态极端低温阈值（单位：°C）；（c）Ⅱ态与Ⅰ态极端低温阈值的差（单位：°C）；（d）Ⅰ态下近1961～2020年平均极端低温日数（单位：d）；（e）Ⅱ态下近1961～2020年平均极端低温日数（单位：d）；（f）Ⅱ态与Ⅰ态下近1961～2020年极端低温日数的差（单位：d）

Figure 12. The distribution of the winter extremely low temperature threshold in North China and the average number of extremely low-temperature days from 1961 to 2020: (a) Extremely low-temperature threshold of the climate in state Ⅰ (units: ℃); (b) as in Fig. 12a, but for the climate state Ⅱ; (c) extreme low-temperature threshold differences between states Ⅱ and Ⅰ (units: ℃); (d) the average number of extreme low-temperature days from 1961 to 2020 relative to state Ⅰ (units: d); (e) as in Fig. 12d, but relative to state Ⅱ (units: d); (f) difference in the number of extreme low-temperature days from 1961 to 2020 between states Ⅱ and Ⅰ (units: d)

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图 13 华北夏季极端高温阈值气候态及1961～2020年平均极端高温日数分布：（a）气候Ⅰ态极端高温阈值（单位：℃）；（b）.气候Ⅱ态极端高温阈值（单位：℃）；（c）Ⅱ态与Ⅰ态极端高温阈值的差（单位：℃）；（d）气候Ⅰ态下1961～2020年平均极端高温日数（单位：d）；（e）气候Ⅱ态下1961～2020年平均极端高温日数（单位：d）；（f）Ⅱ态与Ⅰ态下1961～2020年极端高温日数的差（单位：d）

Figure 13. The distribution of the summer extreme high-temperature threshold in North China and the average number of extremely high–temperature days from 1961 to 2020: (a) Extreme high-temperature threshold of the climate in state Ⅰ (units: ℃); (b) as in Fig. 13a, but for the climate in state Ⅱ; (c) difference in the extreme low-temperature thresholds between states Ⅱ and Ⅰ (units: ℃); (d) the average number of extreme high-temperature days from 1961 to 2020 relative to state Ⅰ (units: d); (e) as in Fig. 13d, but relative to state Ⅱ (units: d); (f) difference in the number of extreme high-temperature days from 1961 to 2020 between state Ⅱ and state Ⅰ (units: d)

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