Tracking and Quantitative Contribution Analyses of Moisture Sources of Rainstorm in Henan Province in July 2021
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摘要: 2021年7月19～22日，河南省部分地区出现极端暴雨（简称“21·7”河南暴雨），造成严重城市内涝和人员伤亡。本文借助降水观测资料和再分析数据，分析了此次暴雨过程的大尺度环流形势，并利用拉格朗日轨迹追踪模式FLEXPART及水汽源区定量贡献分析方法，考察了暴雨过程的水汽源地、输送路径和源区水汽定量贡献。结果表明：此次暴雨期间以及暴雨发生前数天，东亚地区500 hPa环流形势极为稳定，西太平洋副热带高压（简称副高）异常偏北，与北侧高压脊连通、位置少动，欧亚大陆高空槽偏西，东亚中高纬环流显著平直，暴雨过程期间，热带气旋“烟花”和“查帕卡”与副高等持续协同影响，建立明显水汽输送通道，提供充足水汽，河南暴雨区维持显著近地面湿区和高可降水量；向前追踪数天发现，暴雨区目标气块主要来自西北太平洋和中国南海等地，且所处大气高度较低，此外，还有少量气块来自日本海附近和欧亚大陆中部（所处高度相对较高）；定量贡献分析显示，水汽主要来自河南南侧中国中东部大陆（D）和西北太平洋（F），前者水汽贡献率（52.59%）达后者（25.51%）2倍以上，此外，河南暴雨区（T，3.68%）、中南半岛—中国南海（E，3.32%）和暴雨区北侧亚洲大陆（B，2.28%）也有一定贡献；目标气块在D区域水汽摄取量最大，略高于F区域，但前者沿途损耗率明显低于后者，造成D区域水汽贡献显著高于后者；B区域水汽摄取量略高于E区域，但其沿途损耗和未释放部分占比之和高于后者，导致后者水汽贡献相比略高；此外，T区域也有不可忽视的降水再循环率；延长向前追踪天数后，目标气块轨迹和各源区水汽摄取与贡献率相对变化不大，但所有源区水汽总贡献明显提升，可见，对于类似此次河南极端特大暴雨的强降水过程的水汽来源追踪而言，适当延长追踪天数十分必要。
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关键词:
- 河南暴雨 /
- FLEXPART模式 /
- 水汽源区 /
- 定量贡献
Abstract: Extreme rainstorms occurred in some regions of Henan Province from 19 July to 22 July 2021 (referred to as “21·7” Henan rainstorm), causing severe urban waterlogging and casualties. Precipitation observation data and reanalysis data were used to analyze the large-scale circulation situations of this heavy rainfall. The moisture sources, transport paths, and quantitative contribution of each source area were also examined using the Lagrangian trajectory tracking model (FLEXPART) and the areal source-receptor attribution method. The results showed that the 500-hPa circulation in East Asia was extremely stable during the rainstorm and several days before the rainstorm. Connected with the northern high pressure ridge, the western Pacific subtropical high pressure (referred to as the sub-high) was unusually northward, with less movement. Meanwhile, the Eurasian high trough was westward, and the circulation in the middle and high latitudes of East Asia was significantly flat. During the rainstorm, tropical cyclones “In-Fa” and “Cempaka” continued to have synergistic effects with sub-high, establishing obvious water vapor transport channels and providing sufficient moisture. The rainstorm areas in Henan Province retained considerable near-surface wet regions and high precipitable water. Tracking forward for several days, the target particles in the rainstorm area mainly originated from the Northwest Pacific Ocean, the South China Sea, and other places and were located at relatively low atmospheric levels. Additionally, a few particles, which could be traced back to the vicinity of the Sea of Japan and central Eurasia, were at relatively high altitudes. Quantitative contribution analyses indicated that the moisture primarily originated from the continent of eastern–central China south of Henan (D) and the northwestern Pacific Ocean (F), with the contribution of the former (52.59%) twice more than that of the latter (25.51%). In addition, the moisture from the Henan rainstorm area (T, 3.68%), Indo–China Peninsula–South China Sea (E, 3.32%), and the Asian continent north of the storm area (B, 2.28%) also contributed. The water vapor uptake of the target particles was the largest in region D, which was slightly higher than that in region F, but the rate of moisture loss along the former was clearly lower than that of the latter, resulting in significantly higher moisture contribution in region D than in region F. Although the moisture intake in region B was somewhat higher than that in region E, the sum of the moisture loss along the way and the unreleased part was higher than the latter, leading to a greater moisture contribution in region E. Moreover, region T had a non-negligible precipitation recycling rate. When the number of forward tracking days was extended, the trajectories of target particles, water vapor uptake, and contribution rate of each source had relatively minimal changes, but the total contribution of moisture from all source areas significantly increased. Thus, the number of days for the tracking of moisture sources for heavy precipitation events, such as this extreme rainfall in Henan, can be extended. -
图 1 2021年7月17～22日河南以及附近区域实况日降水量（单位：mm）分布。左上角数字表示日降水量累积的截止时间，例如，图a中“1800”代表7月17日00时（协调世界时，下同）至18日00时。黑色实线指示河南省及其市界
Figure 1. Distributions of observed daily precipitation (units: mm) in the region around Henan from 17 July to 22 July 2021. In the upper left corner of each panel, the number represents the deadline for accumulated daily precipitation. For example, in Fig. a, “1800” represents 0000 UTC 17 July to 0000 UTC 18 July 2021. The black solid line indicates Henan Province and its municipal boundaries
图 2 10 d（左列，2021年7月12日00时至22日00时）和暴雨时段（右列，2021年7月19日00时至22日00时）平均的（a、b）500 hPa位势高度（黑色实线，单位：dagpm）、850 hPa风场（箭头，单位：m s−1）、200 hPa大于或等于30 m s−1的风矢量（蓝色风向杆，单位：m s−1），（c、d）自地面积分到300 hPa的水汽通量（矢量，单位：kg m−1 s−1）与水汽通量散度（阴影，单位：10−3 kg m−2 s−1），（e、f）近地面2 m高度的比湿（单位：g kg−1），（g、h）整层大气可降水量（单位：kg m−2）。紫色轮廓线表示河南省界
Figure 2. Ten days (left column, 0000 UTC 12 July to 0000 UTC 22 July 2021) and the rainstorm period (right column, 0000 UTC 19 July to 0000 UTC 22 July 2021) averaged (a, b) 500-hPa geopotential height (black solid lines, units: dagpm), 850-hPa wind field (arrows, units: m s−1), 200-hPa wind speed greater than or equal to 30 m s−1 (blue barbs, units: m s−1), (c, d) water vapor flux (vectors, units: kg m−1 s−1) and water vapor flux divergence (shadings, units: 10−3 kg m−2 s−1) integrated from the ground to 300 hPa, (e, f) 2-m specific humidity (units: g kg−1), (g, h) the precipitable water (units: kg m−2) in the entire atmosphere. The purple outline indicates the boundary of Henan Province
图 3 （a）暴雨时段（2021年7月19日00时至22日00时）累积降水量（单位：mm，黑色方框区域表示目标降水区域），（b）地形（阴影，单位：m）、850 hPa流场（矢量箭头，单位：m s−1）。黑色轮廓线表示河南省界
Figure 3. (a) Accumulated precipitation (shadings, units: mm; black box indicates the target precipitation area) of the rainstorm period (0000 UTC 19 July to 0000 UTC 22 July 2021) and (b) topography (shadings, units: m) and 850-hPa flow field (arrows, units: m s−1). Black outlines indicate the boundary of Henan Province
图 4 2021年7月12日03时至22日00时（a）目标气块运动轨迹以及（b）表面水通量（E–P）分布（填色，单位：mm）。图a中，轨迹颜色代表气块距离地面的高度（单位：m）；紫色星号“*”表示气块轨迹起点，为了清晰显示，气块轨迹间隔10条绘制；红色方框为目标区域；黑色粗实线为聚类后的轨迹，红色数字代表每类聚类轨迹所占的比例。图b中，黑色方框表示划分的不同水汽源区，A–F分别表示欧亚大陆中部地区（A）、河南暴雨区北侧亚洲大陆区域（B）、黄海—日本海—东北亚大陆区域（C）、河南南侧中国中东部大陆区域（D）、中南半岛—中国南海区域（E）、西北太平洋区域（F），黄色方框表示河南暴雨区（T）
Figure 4. (a) Trajectories of the target particles and (b) surface water flux (E–P) distribution (shadings, units: mm) from 0000 UTC 12 July to 0000 UTC 22 July 2021. In Fig. a, the color of the trajectories represents the height (units: m) of particles from the ground; the purple asterisks “*” indicate the starting points of the trajectories; the particles’ trajectories are drawn at ten intervals to clearly display; the red box denotes the target region; the black thick solid lines are the clustered trajectories and the red numbers represent the proportion of each type of clustered trajectories. In Fig. b, the black boxes represent different moisture source regions, where A–F represent the central Eurasian continent (A), the Asian continental region to the north of the Henan heavy rainfall region (B), the Yellow Sea–Sea of Japan–Northeast Asia continental region (C), the central and eastern continental area of China on the south side of Henan (D), the Indo–China Peninsula–South China Sea area (E), and the Northwest Pacific area (F), respectively. The yellow box indicates the heavy rainfall area of Henan (T)
图 5 2021年7月12日03时至22日00时各源区（a）对目标降水区的水汽贡献率（横坐标大写字母含义同图4，Total为所有考察的区域贡献率之和）和（b）水汽总摄取量占目标区域水汽总释放量的百分比。图b中，绿色、橙色和蓝色直方图分别对应目标区域释放、沿途损耗和到达目标区域但未释放部分，直方图上的数字分别对应各源区三部分水汽占该源区水汽摄取总量的百分比
Figure 5. (a) Moisture contribution rate of each source to the target precipitation area (uppercase letters on the abscissa have the same meaning as in Fig. 4, “Total” is the sum of all observed regional contribution rates) and (b) percentage of total moisture uptake of each source to total moisture release in the target area from 0300 UTC 12 July to 0000 UTC 22 July 2021. In Fig. b, the green, orange, and blue histograms correspond to the release in the target area, loss along the way, and the part reaching the target area but not released, respectively, numbers on the histogram are the percentages of the three parts of moisture to the total moisture intake of source region
图 8 “21·7”河南暴雨的大气环流和主要水汽来源概念模型。字母“G”和“D”分别代表500 hPa上的高、低压环流；大和小红色热带气旋符号分别代表“烟花”和“查帕卡”；绿色箭头表示主要水汽输送路径，箭头粗细指示轨迹数目多少（即水汽输送通道大小）；绿色“+”代表主要水汽源区，其线段粗细表示水汽贡献的相对大小；紫色轮廓指示河南省
Figure 8. Schematic of atmospheric circulation and main moisture sources for the rainstorm in Henan in July 2021. Letters “G” and “D” represent high- and low-pressure circulation at 500 hPa, respectively. Large and small red tropical cyclone symbols represent typhoons “In-Fa” and “Cempaka,” respectively. Green arrows indicate the main water vapor transport paths, and the thickness of the arrows indicates the number of trajectories (that is, the size of the water vapor transport channel). The green “+” represents the main moisture source, and its thickness represents the relative magnitude of the water vapor contribution. The purple outline indicates Henan Province
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