A Numerical Simulation on the Impacts of the Offshore Typhoons on Water Vapor Flux, Dynamic and Thermal Conditions of the Extreme Rainstorm Event in Henan Province in July 2021
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摘要: 本文利用WRF模式对近海台风“烟花”及“查帕卡”影响2021年7月19日至21日河南极端暴雨的过程进行数值模拟。控制试验（CTL）对台风路径、强度、大尺度环流形势，以及河南暴雨的强度和空间分布型等均给出合理的模拟，基本再现了本次河南极端暴雨的发展过程。敏感性试验表明，在移除台风“烟花”后，副热带高压系统显著南压并在南侧形成东南风急流，河南地区的南风分量减弱、东风增强，东西方向的水汽输送占主导，有利于降水分布型由CTL试验的南—北向转变为东—西向；另一方面，由于低层东南风急流相较于移除“烟花”前的东风急流偏弱，河南降雨区的局地辐合减弱，水汽通量净流入值较CTL试验降低5.81%，且中纬度冷气团西移减慢，引起局地相当位温梯度减弱，最终导致移除台风“烟花”试验的降雨强度偏弱。移除台风“查帕卡”后，大尺度环流形势几乎未受影响，河南南侧的水汽输送略有减弱，因此强降水分布基本与CTL试验类似，降雨强度略有减小。与台风“烟花”相比，“查帕卡”对河南暴雨的影响较弱。Abstract: This study uses the WRF model to numerically simulate the influence of offshore typhoon In-Fa and typhoon Cempaka on the extreme rainstorm process in Henan on 19–21 July 2021. The control (CTL) experiment reasonably captures the tracks and intensities of the two typhoons, the large-scale circulation pattern, the intensity, and spatial distribution pattern of the rainstorm event in Henan, basically reproducing the extreme rainstorm process in Henan. In addition, the sensitivity experiments indicate that after the removal of typhoon In-Fa, the subtropical high extends southward and forms the southeast wind jet in the south, causing the south (east) wind component to obtain weakened (strengthened) around Henan. The water vapor transport in the zonal direction becomes dominant, which is conducive to the transition of the rainfall distribution from the south–north orientation in CTL to the east–west orientation. On the other hand, given that the southeast wind at the low level is weaker than the easterly jet before the removal of typhoon In-Fa, the local convergence at the Henan rainfall area is weakened, and the net water vapor flux is reduced by 5.81% compared with that in CTL experiment. The slowdown in the westward movement of the mid-latitude cold air causes the reduction of the local equivalent potential temperature gradient. Therefore, the rainfall intensity in the removal of typhoon In-Fa experiment is relatively weaker than that in CTL. After the removal of typhoon Cempaka, the large-scale circulation characteristics are almost unaffected, and the water vapor transport on the south side of Henan is slightly weakened. Therefore, the distribution of heavy rainfall is similar to that in CTL, with a slight decrease in rainfall peak. Compared with typhoon In-Fa, typhoon Cempaka has less effect on the rainstorm event in Henan.
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Key words:
- Henan rainstorm /
- Typhoon In-Fa /
- Typhoon Cempaka /
- Numerical simulation
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图 1 三组敏感性试验的初始时刻（2021年7月19日08时，北京时，下同）850 hPa（a）台风移除前、（b、d、f）台风移除后以及（c、e、g）被移除的台风位势高度场（阴影，单位：gpm）和风场（矢量，单位：m s−1）：（b、c）NOINFA试验；（d、e）NOCEM试验；（f、g）NO2TCs试验
Figure 1. Geopotential height (shadings, units: gpm) and wind fields (vectors, units: m s−1) at 850 hPa of three sensitivity experiments (a) before, (b, d, f) after the typhoons removal procedure, and (c, e, g) the corresponding typhoons at the initial time [0800 BJT (Beijing time) 19 July 2021]: (b, c) NOINFA experiment; (d, e) NOCEM experiment; (f, g) NO2TC experiment
图 2 2021年7月19日08时至21日20时平均的500 hPa位势高度场（等值线，单位：gpm）和距平场（阴影，单位：gpm）、925 hPa水汽通量距平（矢量，单位：20 g s−1 cm−1 hPa−1）。参考气候态为1981～2010年7月均值；深蓝色边框表示河南省省界，黑色圆点表示郑州，红色和橙色台风标志表示此时段内台风“烟花”和“查帕卡”中心的平均位置，下同
Figure 2. Mean geopotential height (contours, units: gpm), climatological geopotential height anomalies (shadings, units: gpm) at 500 hPa, and 925-hPa moisture flux anomalies (vectors, units: 20 g s−1 cm−1 hPa−1) from 0800 BJT 19 to 2000 BJT 21 July 2021. The reference climate state is the mean in July from 1981 to 2010. The navy border and black dot represent the province boundary of Henan Province and the position of Zhengzhou station. The red and orange typhoon symbols denote the averaged center positions for typhoons In-Fa and Cempaka, respectively, the same below
图 3 台风“烟花”实况（CMA，黑线）和模拟（红线：CTL；蓝线：NOCEM）的（a）路径以及（b）强度（实线：中心最低气压；虚线：近地面最大风速）。图a中曲线上的四位数字的前两位表示日期，后两位表示时刻，如2108表示2021年7月21日08时
Figure 3. (a) Track and (b) intensity of the observed [CMA (China Meteorological Administration), black line] and simulated (red line for CTL experiment and blue line for NOCEM experiment) results for typhoon In-Fa. In Fig. a, the first two numbers in curve represent the date, and the last two numbers represent the hour, for example, 2108 denotes 0800 BJT 21 July 2021. In Fig. b, the minimum sea level pressure (SLP) and maximum wind represent the typhoons intensity plotted by solid and dashed line
图 4 D01区域（a、c）再分析数据和（b、d）CTL试验的850 hPa风场（矢量，单位：m s−1）、比湿场（阴影，单位：g kg−1）和500 hPa位势高度场（等值线，单位：gpm）分布：（a、b）2021年7月20日08时；（c、d）2021年7月20日20时。图b中蓝色矩形框区域表示D02模拟区域
Figure 4. Wind (vectors, units: m s−1), specific humidity (shadings, units: g kg−1) at 850 hPa, and 500-hPa geopotential height (contours, units: gpm) in (a, c) the reanalysis data and (b, d) CTL experimental results over region D01 (Domain 01): (a, b) 0800 BJT 20 July 2021; (c, d) 2000 BJT 20 July 2021. The region of D02 (Domain 02) is represented by the blue rectangle in Fig. b
图 5 2021年7月19日14时至21日08时河南地区（a）实况和（b）CTL试验累计降水量分布，（c）实况（黑色）和CTL试验（红色）河南强降水区区域平均的逐3 h累计降水量时间演变。图a、b中黑色虚线矩形框区域代表强降水区（33°～37°N，111°～115°E），黑色三角形代表郑州站
Figure 5. Accumulated precipitation distribution of (a) the observed and (b) CTL experiment over Henan area, (c) time series of the observed (black bars and line) and CTL experiment (red bars and line) for 3-h accumulated precipitation averaged over the heavy rainfall area of Henan from 1400 BJT 19 July to 0800 BJT 21 July 2021. In Figs. a, b, the black dashed rectangle denotes the heavy rainfall area (33°–37°N, 111°–115°E), black triangles represent the location of Zhengzhou station
图 6 （a）NOINFA试验、（b）NOCEM试验和（c）NO2TCs试验的河南地区42 h（2021年7月19日14时至21日08时）累计降水量分布
Figure 6. Simulated 42-h (from 1400 BJT 19 July to 0800 BJT 21 July 2021) accumulated precipitation from (a) NOINFA, (b) NOCEM, and (c) NO2TC experiments over Henan area
图 7 2021年7月20日08时（左）和20时（右）（a、b）CTL试验、（c、d）NOINFA试验和（e、f）NOCEM试验的850 hPa风场（矢量，单位：m s−1）和相当位温场（阴影，单位：K）、500 hPa位势高度场（等值线，单位：gpm）。绿色风矢量表示风速大于9 m s−1；圆点表示郑州站位置
Figure 7. Horizontal distribution of wind fields (vectors, units: m s−1) and equivalent potential temperature (shadings, units: K) at 850 hPa, 500-hPa geopotential height (contours, units: gpm) of the (a, b) CTL, (c, d) NOINFA, and (e, f) NOCEM experiments at 0800 BJT July 2021 (left), 2000 BJT July 2021 (right). The green vectors give the wind speed larger than 9 m s−1; the dots represent Zhengzhou station
图 8 2021年7月20日08时（左）、20时（右）（a、b）CTL试验、（c、d）NOINFA试验和（e、f）NOCEM试验的整层（1000～450 hPa）水汽通量矢量（箭头）和大小（阴影，单位：102 kg m−1 s−1）、河南地区800 hPa水汽辐合（粉色等值线，从−40×10−7 kg m−2 s−1 hPa−1开始，每20×10−7 kg m−2 s−1 hPa−1递增）以及副高位置（5880 gpm黑色等值线）。圆点表示郑州站位置；图a中深蓝色虚线框区域ABCD和AEFG分别为下文研究所指的纬向和经向剖面区域
Figure 8. Horizontal distribution of the deep-layer averaged (1000–450 hPa) water vapor flux vector (arrows) and magnitude (shadings, units: 102 kg m−1 s−1), 800-hPa water vapor flux convergence (pink contours, increase from −40×10−7 kg m−2 s−1 hPa−1 with a spacing of 20×10−7 kg m−2 s−1 hPa−1) in Henan area, and position of subtropical high (5880-gpm black contours) of the (a, b) CTL, (c, d) NOINFA, and (e, f) NOCEM experiments at 0800 BJT July 2021 (left), 2000 BJT July 2021 (right). The dots represent Zhengzhou station. In Fig. a, the navy dashed boxes (ABCD and AEFG) area give the after-mentioned cross sections
图 9 2021年7月20日（a–c）08时、（d–f）20时垂直水汽通量值（阴影, 单位：g s−1 cm−1 hPa−1）的垂直—纬向（对矩形ABCD进行经向平均）分布：（a、d）CTL试验；（b、e）NOINFA试验；（c、f）NOINFA试验与CTL试验的差值场。（g–l）同（a–f），但为对矩形AEFG进行纬向平均后得到的垂直—经向分布。风矢量（单位：m s−1）是水平风场随高度的分布，红色矩形表示河南强降水区（33°～37°N, 111°～115°E）
Figure 9. Vertical–zonal (meridional averaging of rectangle ABCD) distribution of vertical water vapor flux magnitude (shadings, units: g s−1 cm−1 hPa−1) at (a–c) 0800 BJT 20 July and (d–f) 2000 BJT 20 July 2021: (a, d) CTL experiment; (b, e) NOINFA experiment; (c, f) differences between NOINFA experiment and CTL experiment. (g–l) As in (a–f), but for the vertical–meridional (zonal averaging of rectangle AEFG) distributions. The wind vectors (units: m s−1) represent the distribution of horizontal winds with height, and the red rectangles denote the heavy rainfall area (33°–37°N, 111°–115°E) in Henan area
图 10 2021年7月20日（a、b）08时、（c、d）20时垂直水汽通量值（阴影, 单位：g s−1 cm−1 hPa−1）的垂直—纬向（对矩形ABCD进行经向平均）分布：（a、c）NOCEM试验；（b、d）NOCEM试验与CTL试验的差值场。（e–h）同（a–d），但为对矩形AEFG进行纬向平均后得到的垂直—经向分布。风矢量（单位：m s−1）是水平风场随高度的分布，红色矩形表示河南强降水区（33°～37°N, 111°～115°E）
Figure 10. Vertical–zonal (meridional averaging of rectangle ABCD) distribution of vertical water vapor flux magnitude (shadings, units: g s−1 cm−1 hPa−1) at (a, b) 0800 BJT 20 July and (c, d) 2000 BJT 20 July 2021: (a, c) NOCEM experiment; (b, d) differences between NOCEM experiment and CTL experiment. (e–h) As in (a–d), but for the vertical–meridional (zonal averaging of rectangle AEFG) distributions. The wind vectors (units: m s−1) represent the distribution of horizontal winds with height, and the red rectangles denote the heavy rainfall area (33°–37°N, 111°–115°E) in Henan area
图 11 河南强降水区CTL试验、NOINFA试验、NOCEM试验1000～450 hPa来自（a）东面、（b）南面、（c）西面、（d）北面的水汽通量值以及（e）NOINFA试验、NOCEM试验与CTL试验净水汽通量差值垂直积分的时间演变
Figure 11. Time series of 1000–450 hPa vertical integral of water vapor flux magnitude from CTL experiment, NOINFA experiment, NOCEM experiment for Henan area from the (a) east side, (b) south side, (c) west side, (d) north side, and (e) differences of net water vapor flux magnitude between NOINFA (NOCEM) experiment and CTL experiment
图 12 2021年7月19日14时至21日08时河南强降水区（黑色矩形，33°～37°N, 111°～115°E）1000～450 hPa四个方向水汽通量值（单位：107 kg s−1）垂直积分的时间平均。黑色、蓝色和红色箭头分别表示CTL试验、NOINFA试验和NOCEM试验
Figure 12. Time average of 1000–450 hPa vertical integral of four-side water vapor flux magnitude (units: 107 kg s−1) for the heavy rainfall area (33°–37°N, 111°–115°E) in Henan area from 1400 BJT 19 July to 0800 BJT 21 July 2021. Black, blue, and red arrows represent the CTL, NOINFA, and NOCEM experiments
图 13 （a）CTL试验和（b）NOINFA试验850 hPa相当位温（阴影，单位：K）和水平风场（矢量，单位：m s−1）的时间—纬向（对矩形ABCD面进行经向平均）演变。红色矩形表示河南强降水区（33°～37°N, 111°～115°E）
Figure 13. Temporal–zonal (meridional averaging of rectangle ABCD) evolution of equivalent potential temperature (shadings, units: K) and horizontal wind (vectors, units: m s−1) for (a) CTL experiment and (b) NOINFA experiment at 850 hPa. Red rectangles represent the heavy rainfall area (33°–37°N, 111°–115°E) of Henan area
图 14 “21·7”河南极端暴雨事件过程概念模型。“SH”表示西太平洋副热带高压，两个台风标志分别表示台风“烟花”（In-Fa）和台风“查帕卡”（Cempaka），浅蓝色箭头表示水汽通量，蓝色和红色的云团分别代表冷气团和暖气团，深蓝色的向上箭头代表上升运动
Figure 14. Schematic illustration of the “21·7” Henan heavy rainfall event. “SH” presents the western Pacific subtropical high. Two typhoon symbols denote the typhoons In-Fa and Cempaka. Light blue vector presents water vapor flux. Blue and red clouds represent warm and clod air masses, respectively. Dark blue upward-pointed vector denotes upward motion
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