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姚璐, 杨东旭, 蔡兆男, 等. 2022. 面向我国碳中和、碳达峰的大气甲烷观测卫星现状与发展趋势分析[J]. 大气科学, 46(6): 1469−1483. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2207.22096
引用本文: 姚璐, 杨东旭, 蔡兆男, 等. 2022. 面向我国碳中和、碳达峰的大气甲烷观测卫星现状与发展趋势分析[J]. 大气科学, 46(6): 1469−1483. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2207.22096
YAO Lu, YANG Dongxu, CAI Zhaonan, et al. 2022. Status and Trend Analysis of Atmospheric Methane Satellite Measurement for Carbon Neutrality and Carbon Peaking in China [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 46(6): 1469−1483. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2207.22096
Citation: YAO Lu, YANG Dongxu, CAI Zhaonan, et al. 2022. Status and Trend Analysis of Atmospheric Methane Satellite Measurement for Carbon Neutrality and Carbon Peaking in China [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 46(6): 1469−1483. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2207.22096

面向我国碳中和、碳达峰的大气甲烷观测卫星现状与发展趋势分析

Status and Trend Analysis of Atmospheric Methane Satellite Measurement for Carbon Neutrality and Carbon Peaking in China

  • 摘要: 甲烷(CH4)是辐射强迫仅次于二氧化碳(CO2)的重要温室气体,减少CH4排放是控制全球增温,实现碳中和目标的必要手段。面对碳中和战略需求,快速定位排放源并定量监测CH4排放量,准确估算全球和区域CH4源汇分布,对减排措施的制定、实施和评价均具有重要的现实意义。此外,结合长期CH4观测数据和气候系统模型探索大气CH4浓度变化规律,是预测和积极应对气候变化的前提。IPCC 2006年国家温室气体清单指南2019修订版正式提出了利用“自上而下”方法计算通量、核验排放清单的方法,表明获取全球范围内的高精度高时空分辨率CH4观测数据势在必行。为了实现碳中和目标,本文首先从大气CH4研究需解决的几个关键科学问题入手,分析了CH4的星载探测需求,总结了CH4星载探测的现状和发展趋势,并简要介绍了中国第二代碳卫星的设计思路。同时,星载CH4探测还依赖于高精度的反演算法提供可靠的数据产品,以实现监测和实际应用的目的。因此,本文进一步阐述了卫星遥感CH4反演算法及相应数据产品在排放量监测和通量反演中的应用,论述了提升反演算法计算效率和精度,开发甲烷烟羽快速识别算法和建立通量反演算法的必要性。最后,本文从探测、数据获取和应用的角度进行总结,表明了CH4卫星观测在碳中和目标实践中的科学应用潜能。

     

    Abstract: Methane (CH4) is an important greenhouse gas, and its radiative forcing is second only to that of carbon dioxide (CO2). Reducing CH4 emissions is necessary to control global warming and achieve carbon neutrality. To achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, quickly locating emission sources and accurately estimating the distribution of global and regional CH4 sources and sinks are of great practical importance for formulating, implementing, and evaluating mitigation measures. In addition, combining long-term CH4 observation data and climate system models to explore the changing trend in atmospheric CH4 concentration is a premise for predicting and actively responding to climate change. The 49th session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 49) proposed a “top-down” approach to calculating fluxes to verify emission inventories. This method is mainly based on atmospheric measurements, indicating the importance of obtaining high-precision, global-scale CH4 observation data with high spatial and temporal resolution. To achieve carbon neutrality, we start with several key scientific issues that must be solved in atmospheric CH4 research to analyze the requirements of CH4 satellite measurement. In this paper, we also summarize the status and development trend of CH4 satellite measurement and briefly introduce the implementation of China’s next-generation carbon satellite. Space-based CH4 measurement relies on high-precision retrieval algorithms to provide reliable data products for monitoring and further applications. On the basis of the status of the CH4 satellite remote sensing retrieval algorithm and the application of corresponding data products in emission monitoring and flux estimation, we further discuss the necessity of improving calculation efficiency and accuracy for the remote sensing retrieval algorithm and flux inversion algorithm. As for monitoring and controlling the anthropogenic emission process, developing a rapid identification algorithm for methane plumes and an emission evaluation method should also be considered. Finally, this paper summarizes the detection, data acquisition, and application of satellite-based CH4 measurements and indicates the scientific application potential of CH4 satellite observations for carbon neutrality goals.

     

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