山东地区一次夏季极端暴雨中尺度系统发展演变过程及机理分析

龚琬丁; 周玉淑; 钟珊珊; 沈新勇; 李小凡; 邓国

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2208.21261

山东地区一次夏季极端暴雨中尺度系统发展演变过程及机理分析

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2208.21261

龚琬丁^{1, 2,},
周玉淑^{2, 3},
钟珊珊^1, ,,
沈新勇^{1, 4},
李小凡⁵,
邓国^{6, 7}

1.
南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 南京210044
2.
中国科学院大气物理研究所云降水物理与强风暴院重点实验室（LACS）, 北京100029
3.
中国科学院大学地球与行星科学学院, 北京100049
4.
南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室（珠海）, 珠海519082
5.
浙江大学地球科学学院, 杭州310027
6.
中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心, 北京100081
7.
中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室, 北京100081

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目42175012、41975137、41875056、41930967，国家重点研发计划项目2019YFC1510400

详细信息

作者简介:
龚琬丁，女，1997年出生，硕士研究生，主要从事暴雨诊断及机理分析研究。E-mail: 18362095371@163.com

通讯作者:
钟珊珊，E-mail: zhongshanshan@nuist.edu.cn

中图分类号: P445
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-12-30
- 录用日期: 2022-09-15
- 网络出版日期: 2022-08-01
- 刊出日期: 2023-05-15

Evolution Process and Mechanism Analysis of the Mesoscale System of an Extreme Summer Rainstorm in Shandong Province

Wanding GONG^{1, 2
,},
Yushu ZHOU^{2, 3},
Shanshan ZHONG^{1
, ,},
Xinyong SHEN^{1, 4},
Xiaofan LI⁵,
Guo DENG^{6, 7}

1.
Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044
2.
Key Laboratory of Cloud–Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms (LACS), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
3.
College of Earth Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049
4.
Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai 519082
5.
School of Earth Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027
6.
Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081
7.
State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081

Funds: National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 42175012, 41975137, 41875056, 41930967), National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant 2019YFC1510400)

摘要

摘要: 对2020年7月22日山东半岛一次极端暴雨天气过程开展观测分析，并利用中尺度模式WRF对此次局地降水过程进行了高分辨率数值模拟，对暴雨过程进行了天气背景和中尺度降雨的诊断。WRF模式较好地再现了此次极端暴雨过程，结果表明：此次极端暴雨过程短时降水强度大且局地性强，在时空上具有明显中尺度特征。降水发生在北抬副热带高压与华北低涡底部之间的西南气流中，强低涡与低空急流是影响此次降水的重要天气系统。西南急流为本次暴雨过程极端水汽的主要输送载体；在弱高空辐散场下，从地表延伸至500 hPa高空的深厚低涡是造成本次暴雨的主要影响因子，其时空演变特征与中尺度云团变化一致，与暴雨的发生直接相关。低涡、低空急流和副高之间的相互作用使低涡加强发展，低涡南部有暖湿气流入流，北部有干冷气流流入，比湿梯度基本呈现为自南向北递减分布，是典型的伴有低空急流的中尺度低涡流场分布；低涡辐合及其与副热带高压边缘强风速带的共同作用，导致强垂直运动发展并维持，是造成本次山东半岛极端暴雨的重要原因。
- 山东半岛 /
- 极端暴雨 /
- 中尺度低涡 /
- 低空急流 /
- 发展演变过程
Abstract: The synoptic circulation pattern and mesoscale systems associated with the extreme torrential rain occurring in the Shandong Peninsula on 22 July 2020, are analyzed with conventional observational data and a high-resolution numerical simulation using the mesoscale model WRF. The simulation agreed well with the precipitation process. The results show that the rainstorm process is characterized by mesoscale features spatially and temporally, represented in its high intensity of short-term rainfall, severe locality, etc. Precipitation occurs in the southwest airflow between the subtropical north elevation and the bottom of a low vortex. Strong vortices and low-level jets are important weather systems that affect this precipitation. The southwest jet stream is the main carrier of extreme water vapor during this heavy precipitation. Under a high-level weak divergent field, the main influence of this rainstorm is the deep low vortex extending from the surface to the 500-hPa high altitude. Its temporal and spatial evolution characteristics are consistent with the mesoscale cloud cluster changes shown by the FY-2E hourly TBB data. This consistency is directly related to the occurrence of heavy rain. The interaction between the vortex, low-level jet, and subtropical high strengthens the development of the low vortex. There are warm, wet airflows from the north and cold, dry airflows from the south of the low vortex. The specific humidity gradient is roughly distributed from south to north, which is a typical flow field distribution of a vortex accompanied by a low-level jet. The convergence of the low vortex and its interaction with the strong wind speed belt at the edge of the subtropical high lead to the development and maintenance of strong vertical motion, thereby contributing to the persistence of extreme rainstorms.
- Shandong Peninsula /
- Extreme rainstorm /
- Low vortex /
- Low-level jet /
- Developmental process

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图 1 2020年7月22日24 h累计降水量（单位：mm）

Figure 1. 24-h accumulative precipitation (units: mm) on 22 July 2020

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图 2 2020年7月22日00时（左）、12时（右）位势高度（黑色实线，单位：dagpm）、风场（箭头，单位：m s⁻¹）分布：（a、b）850 hPa；（c、d）500 hPa；（e、f）200 hPa。阴影为大于3500 m地形

Figure 2. Distributions of geopotential height (black solid lines, units: dagpm) and wind (vectors, units: m s⁻¹) at 0000 UTC (left) and 1200 UTC (right) on 22 July 2020: (a, b) 850 hPa; (c, d) 500 hPa; (e, f) 200 hPa. The gray shading is the terrain larger than 3500 m

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图 3 2020年7月（a）22日18时、（b）23日00时850 hPa位势高度（黑色实线，单位：dagpm）、温度（红色虚线，单位：°C）、大于1.5 m s⁻¹的风场（黑色箭头）、相对涡度（彩色阴影，单位：10⁻⁴ s⁻¹）。灰色阴影表示地形（单位：m）

Figure 3. Distributions of geopotential height (black solid lines, units: dagpm), temperature (red dashed lines, units: °C), wind more than 1.5 m s⁻¹ (black vectors), relative vorticity (color shadings, units: 10⁻⁴ s⁻¹) at 850 hPa at (a) 1800 UTC and (b) 2300 UTC on 22 July 2020. The gray shading shows the terrain (units: m)

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图 4 2020年7月（a）22日18时、（b）23日00时850 hPa水汽通量（黑色流线）、水汽通量散度（彩色阴影，单位：10⁻⁸ kg m⁻¹ s⁻¹ hPa⁻¹）。灰色阴影表示地形（单位：m）

Figure 4. Moisture fluxes (black streamline) and their divergence (color shadings, units: 10⁻⁸ kg m⁻¹ s⁻¹ hPa⁻¹) at 850 hPa at (a) 1800 UTC and (b) 2300 UTC on 22 July 2020. The gray shading shows the terrain (units: m)

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图 5 （a）2020年7月22日700 hPa比湿（单位：g kg⁻¹）、（b）2020年7月22日与1991～2020年7月平均的700 hPa比湿差（单位：g kg⁻¹）

Figure 5. (a) 700-hPa specific humidity (units: g kg⁻¹) on 22 July 2020, (b) the differences (units: g kg⁻¹) of 700-hPa specific humidity between 22 July 2020 and the average of July 1991–2020

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图 6 2020年7月22日04时至23日00时850 hPa位势高度（黑色实线，单位：dagpm）和TBB逐小时分布（彩色阴影，单位：°C）。灰色阴影表示地形高度（单位：m）

Figure 6. Hourly distributions of geopotential height (black solid lines, units: dagpm) and brightness temperature (color shadings, units: °C) from the FY-2E satellite at 850 hPa from 0400 UTC 22 July to 0000 UTC 23 July 2020. The gray shading shows the terrain (units: m)

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图 7 2020年7月22日00时至23日00时（a）实测、（b）模拟的24 h累计降水量（单位：mm）

Figure 7. Accumulative 24-h precipitation (units: mm) obtained from (a) simulation, (b) observation from 0000 UTC 22 July 2020 to 0000 UTC 23 July 2020

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图 8 2020年7月22日实况（左）、模拟（右）的6 h累计降水量（单位：mm）：（a、b）00～06时；（c、d）06～12时；（e、f）12～18时；（g、h）18时至23日00时

Figure 8. Accumulated 6-h precipitation (units: mm) obtained from simulation (left) and observation (right): (a, b) 0000–0600 UTC 22 July 2020; (c, d) 0600–1200 UTC 22 July 2020; (e, f) 1200–1800 UTC 22 July 2020; (g, h) 1800 UTC 22 July 2020 to 0000 UTC 23 July 2020

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图 9 2020年7月22日山东省青岛探空站（a、b）00时、（c、d）12时实测（左）、模拟（右）探空曲线。绿色粗实线表示露点温度，红色粗实线表示层结曲线

Figure 9. Soundings obtained from (a, c) observation (left), (b, d) simulation (right) at Qingdao station in Shandong Province at (a, b) 0000 UTC and (c, d) 1200 UTC 22 July 2020. The bold green line is the dew point temperature, and the bold red line is the stratification curve

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图 10 2020年7月22日（a）07时、（b）14时、（c）18时800 hPa流场（黑色流线）和低空急流（阴影，风速≥12 m s⁻¹）分布

Figure 10. Distributions of 800-hPa flows (black streamlines) and the low-level jet (shadings, wind speed≥12 m s⁻¹) at (a) 0700 UTC, (b) 1400 UTC, and (c) 1800 UTC on 22 July 2020

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图 11 2020年7月22日00～23时850 hPa暴雨中心涡度方程各项收支随时间变化（单位：10⁻⁸ s⁻¹）及逐小时累计降水量（单位：mm）

Figure 11. Budget (units: 10⁻⁸ s⁻¹) of each part of the vorticity equation in the rainstorm center at 850 hPa with time and the hourly cumulative precipitation (units: mm) from 0000 UTC July to 2300 UTC 22 July 2020

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图 12 2020年7月22日经低涡中心（图10a黑色线段所示位置）的相对涡度垂直剖面（彩色阴影，单位：10⁻⁵ s⁻¹）：（a）00时；（b）04时；（c）14时；（d）18时。灰色阴影为地形，红色三角表示近地面低涡中心，下同

Figure 12. Vertical cross sections of the relative vorticity (color shadings, units: 10⁻⁵ s⁻¹) across the low-vortex center (black line in Fig. 10a) on 22 July 2020: (a) 0000 UTC; (b) 0400 UTC; (c) 1400 UTC; (d) 1800 UTC. The gray shading indicates the terrain, and the red triangle indicates the low-vortex center in the surface layer, the same below

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图 13 2020年7月22日经低涡中心（图10a黑色线段所示位置）的垂直速度（阴影，单位：10⁻⁵ m s⁻¹）、风矢量（箭头，单位：m s⁻¹）的垂直剖面：（a）00时；（b）10时；（c）13时；（d）17时

Figure 13. Vertical cross sections of the vertical velocity (color shadings, units: 10⁻⁵ m s⁻¹) and wind vector (arrows, units: m s⁻¹) across the low-vortex center (black line in Fig. 10a) on 22 July 2020: (a) 0000 UTC; (b) 1000 UTC; (c) 1300 UTC; (d) 1700 UTC

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图 14 2020年7月22日800 hPa温度扰动（彩色阴影，单位：°C）、流场（黑色流线）、地面2 m高度处温度场（红色实线，单位：°C）：（a）07时；（b）18时；（c）23时

Figure 14. Temperature perturbation (color shadings, units: °C), flows (black streamline) at 800 hPa, and temperature at 2-m height on 22 July 2020: (a) 0700 UTC; (b) 1800 UTC; and (c) 2300 UTC

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图 15 2020年7月22日经低涡中心沿线（图14a红色线段）温度扰动（彩色阴影，单位：°C）、温度（红色实线，单位：°C）、相当位温（蓝色实线，单位：K）的垂直剖面：（a）03时；（b）07时；（c）18时；（d）22时

Figure 15. Vertical cross sections of temperature perturbation (color shadings, units: °C), temperature (red solid lines, units: °C), and equivalent potential temperature (blue solid lines, units: K) across the low-vortex center (red line in Fig.14a) on 22 July 2020: (a) 0300 UTC ; (b) 0700 UTC; (c) 1800 UTC; (d) 2200 UTC

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图 16 2020年7月22日经低涡中心沿线（图10a黑色线段）相对湿度（彩色阴影）、比湿（蓝色实线，单位：g kg⁻¹）、风矢量（箭头，单位：m s⁻¹）的垂直剖面：（a）00时；（b）05时；（c）14时；（d）22时

Figure 16. Vertical cross sections of the relative humidity (color shadings), specific humidity (blue solid lines, units: g kg⁻¹), and wind (arrows, units: m s⁻¹) across the low-vortex center (black line in Fig.10a) on 22 July 2020: (a) 0000 UTC; (b) 0500 UTC; (c) 1400 UTC; (d) 2200 UTC

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表 1 WRF模式模拟中使用的主要参数

Table 1. List of main parameters used in WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) simulation

	模拟区域一	模拟区域二
模拟区域分辨率	15000 m	3000 m
格点数	155×130	571×521
微物理方案	Thompson Graupel Scheme (Thompson et al., 2008)	Thompson Graupel Scheme (Thompson et al., 2008)
对流参数化方案	Grell 3D Ensemble Scheme (Grell and Dévényi, 2002)	Grell 3D Ensemble Scheme (Grell and Dévényi, 2002)
长波辐射方案	RRTMG Scheme (Iacono et al., 2008)	RRTMG Scheme (Iacono et al.,2008)
短波辐射方案	RRTMG Scheme (Mlawer et al., 1997)	RRTMG Scheme (Mlawer et al., 1997)
近地表方案	Monin-Obukhov (Janjic Eta) Similarity Scheme (Monin and Obukhov, 1954; Janjic, 1996)	Monin-Obukhov (Janjic Eta) Similarity Scheme (Monin and Obukhov, 1954; Janjic, 1996)
陆地过程方案	Noah Land–Surface Model (Chen and Dudhia, 2001)	Noah Land–Surface Model (Chen and Dudhia, 2001)

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