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王素霞, 赵文静. 2024. 土壤水力参数对全球中期数值天气预报系统的影响[J]. 大气科学, 48(2): 645−658. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2209.22040
引用本文: 王素霞, 赵文静. 2024. 土壤水力参数对全球中期数值天气预报系统的影响[J]. 大气科学, 48(2): 645−658. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2209.22040
WANG Suxia, ZHAO Wenjing. 2024. Influence of Soil Hydraulic Parameters on the Global Medium-Range Numerical Weather Forecast System [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 48(2): 645−658. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2209.22040
Citation: WANG Suxia, ZHAO Wenjing. 2024. Influence of Soil Hydraulic Parameters on the Global Medium-Range Numerical Weather Forecast System [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 48(2): 645−658. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2209.22040

土壤水力参数对全球中期数值天气预报系统的影响

Influence of Soil Hydraulic Parameters on the Global Medium-Range Numerical Weather Forecast System

  • 摘要: 土壤湿度是控制陆—气界面潜热和感热通量分配的关键要素之一,而且由于其具有一定的记忆特性,可以对多种时空尺度的天气气候过程产生重要影响。在数值模式中,土壤水力参数的不确定性是导致土壤湿度模拟结果不确定性的主要原因之一。本文基于银河全球大气谱模式YHGSM(Yin He Global Spectral Model)的陆面模块,引入了VG(van Genuchten)土壤水分特征曲线模型,并探讨了模型水力参数的两种不同取值方案对土壤湿度离线模拟以及全球中期数值天气预报的影响。其中,土壤水力参数所需要的土壤类型数据来源于全球土壤数据集GSDE(Global Soil Dataset for Earth System Models)。离线试验结果表明,除了冻土和有机土壤的模拟偏差较大外,YHGSM的陆面模块对全球大部分地区土壤湿度的模拟能力较好,模拟精度与ERA5土壤湿度再分析产品的精度近似;土壤水力参数的不同取值方案对土壤湿度模拟有一定影响,其影响程度与土壤类型和局地气候条件密切相关,粗质地和中等质地土壤对模型参数的敏感性更强。从全球中期数值预报结果来看,土壤水力参数通过改变土壤湿度模拟,不仅对近地层温、湿度的短期预报结果产生重要影响,而且可能会导致预报系统积分6天后的大尺度环流场发生显著变化。因此,对于全球中期数值预报系统而言,优化土壤水力参数,提高土壤湿度模拟能力是非常重要的。此外,对于数值预报系统而言,正确模拟土壤湿度随时间的变化特征可能要比土壤湿度模拟值大小的准确与否更加重要。

     

    Abstract: Soil moisture is one of the key factors controlling the distribution of latent and sensible heat flux at the interface of the land surface and atmosphere and can affect weather and climate processes at various temporal and spatial scales because of its certain memory properties. In the numerical model, uncertainty in soil hydraulic parameters is one of the primary reasons for uncertainty in soil moisture simulations. Using the land surface modules coupled with the Yin He Global Spectral Model (YHGSM), this paper introduces the VG (van Genuchten) soil water retention curve model and discusses the influence of two different sets of soil hydraulic parameters on the offline simulation of soil moisture and global medium-range numerical weather forecast. Soil type information needed for yielding soil hydraulic parameters is obtained from the Global Soil Dataset for Earth System Models (GSDE). The offline results show that, except for the large deviations in the simulation of permafrost and organic soil, the land surface module of YHGSM can satisfactorily simulate soil moisture in most parts of the world, and the simulation accuracy is similar to that of ERA5 soil moisture reanalysis products. Soil hydraulic parameters have a certain influence on soil moisture, and the strength of this influence is closely related to soil types and local climatic conditions; furthermore, coarse and medium texture soils are more sensitive to model parameters. The results of the global medium-range numerical forecast experiments by altering soil moisture simulations indicate that soil hydraulic parameters not only affect the short-term forecast of near-surface temperature and humidity but may also lead to considerable changes in large-scale circulations after 6 days of forecast. Therefore, optimizing soil hydraulic parameters and improving the ability of soil moisture simulation are very important for the global medium-range numerical forecasting system. Moreover, the ability to simulate time variations of soil moisture may be more important to a numerical prediction system than simulations of soil moisture absolute magnitudes.

     

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